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Rate Hike Expectations Dive On Housing Data

IMG Auteur

Mish

Global Economic Analysis

Published : May 24th, 2018

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Category : Opinions and Analysis


	Rate hike expectations took a big dive today on poor housing data and/or Trump tariffs flip-flops. Today's housing report was a disaster vs expectations. Numbers +- reflect the rate hike odds movement today alone. Let's compare to a snapshot I took eleven days ago. Rate Hike Expectations May 12 Eleven days ago, traders were pricing in chances of five or even six hikes. The consensus estimate was a 47.4% chance of at least 4 hikes this year. Compare the preceding chart to today's chart. There is now a small chance of no more hikes this year. What Happened? Reality: April New Home Sales Slide 1.5%, March Revised Sharply Lower. I rather doubt Trump's trade shenanigans helped any. One can also ponder this. By the way, Rosie might need to rethink inflation as well. Inflation watchers please note: the yield on the 10-year note is back below 3.0%. Let's not confuse late stage inflation with a massive breakout of stagflation. For discussion, please see Reflections on Late-Stage Inflation.

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Mike Shedlock / Mish is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. He writes a global economics blog which has commentary 5-7 times a week. He also writes for the Daily Reckoning, Whiskey & Gunpowder, and has over 80 magazine and book cover credits. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com

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