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Home>Opinions and Analysis>Recession Signal Getting Louder: 5-Year Yield Inverts With 3-Month Yield

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Recession Signal Getting Louder: 5-Year Yield Inverts With 3-Month Yield

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Mish

Global Economic Analysis

Published : February 27th, 2019

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Category : Opinions and Analysis


	The yield curve is inverted in 11 different spots. The latest is 5-year to 3-month inversion. The yield curve recession signal is louder and louder. Inversions are persistent and growing. Let's compare the spreads today to that of December 18, the start of the December 2018 FOMC meeting. Yield Curve 2019-02-26 vs December and October 2018 Yield Cure Spread Analysis Spread Changes Yellow: Spreads Collapsed Since October (1-Month to 5-Years) Pink: Spreads Remained Roughly the Same (7-Year) Blue: Spreads Increased (30-Year and 10-Year) Something Happening Something is happening. What is it? Possibilities The bond market is staring to worry about trillion dollar deficits as far as the eye can see The bond market has stagflation worries The bond bull market is over or approaching My take is number one and possibly all three.

Source : moneymaven.io

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Mike Shedlock / Mish is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. He writes a global economics blog which has commentary 5-7 times a week. He also writes for the Daily Reckoning, Whiskey & Gunpowder, and has over 80 magazine and book cover credits. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com

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