Close X Cookies are necessary for the proper functioning of 24hGold.com. By continuing your navigation on our website, you are accepting the use of cookies.
To learn more about cookies ...
EnglishFrench
Gold & Silver Prices in

Rusty Old Tin Can of Gold

IMG Auteur
Published : February 27th, 2013
777 words - Reading time : 1 - 3 minutes
( 6 votes, 5/5 )
Print article
  Article Comments Comment this article Rating All Articles  
0
Send
0
comment
Our Newsletter...

Gold has turned, apparently. Leveraged speculators in the futures market said so...

"To HOARDERS and speculators," says Time magazine, "gold lately has had about as much luster as a rusty tin can."

Rings true here in Feb. 2013. But this clanging bell – entitled
The Great Gold Bust, and drowned out as a signal to fill your boots only by the New York Times' infamous Who Needs Gold When We Have Greenspan? of May 1999 – was rung back in Aug. 1976, right at the bottom of a 50% pullback in the 1970s' long bull market in gold.

"In three chaotic days last week, gold fell $14 on the London market," Time explained almost 37 years ago, noting gold's plunge from $198 per ounce at the start of 1975.

Gold's new 31-month low of $105.50 an ounce "[was] a dismal figure for goldbugs," the magazine went on, "who not long ago were forecasting prices of $300 or more."

Spooky, no? "This is a commodity that people thought was going to $2000 an ounce and beyond," gasped a MarketWatch video at the WSJ just last week. "This was a commodity that was rising almost parabolically, exponentially...

"[Gold] has turned."

Well, perhaps. Gold's 21st century bull market has certainly lost its milk teeth. It was 10 years ago this month, in fact, that the number of bullish gold futures on the US Comex market held by professional speculators first broke above 100,000 contracts.

And to celebrate that anniversary, last week the number of bearish contracts held by that same group – professional speculators – leapt above 90,000 for the first time since mid-1999...

Coinciding with the New York Times' praise for Alan Greenspan versus gold, mid-1999 was in fact the only other time when speculative betting against the gold price reached last week's size.

Back then, as die-hard gold bugs will recall, Gordon Brown squished the price to 20-year low beneath $255 per ounce, announcing in advance that he would dump half the UK's gold reserves just as the Swiss voted to sell huge chunks of their massive gold reserves too.

Gold has come a long way since its Brown Bottom. But gold speculators and hoarders?

"Investors display lowest optimism about gold since end of 2008," says Commerzbank, looking at the net balance of bullish minus bearish bets held on the US futures market by Non-Commercial traders (aka hedge funds and other "managed money" traders). And no fooling...

The reasons for gold's new-found bearishness? In truth, it's been coming for 18 months, as analysts from Credit Suisse and Goldman Sachs will tell you, pointing to the price peak of – umm – 18 months ago a mere year-and-a-half after the, umm, peak. But what with gold prices failing to make new highs, the Eurozone crisis must be as near-to-finished as the broader global financial crisis. The US Fed is also about to start raising interest rates much sooner than anyone expected, driving a stake into the heart of the case for gold as cash-in-the-bank starts to pay a real return once again.

Or so runs the fast-rolling bandwagon. You can measure its momentum in the Net Long position of professional traders on the gold futures market. It shrank dramatically over the last 3 months, down 43% to its smallest level since just after Lehman's collapsed. That rate of change has been outpaced only 10 times in the last decade.

The average change in the gold price over the 3 months that followed? A tasty 7.8% on BullionVault's analysis today, with only 3 of those 10 occasions failing to deliver a positive 3-month return (and even then managing only a 2.1% drop).

Still, a gold bull market gripped the last decade, of course. And whether the recent bearishness will run deeper or turn tail, time will tell (or not. According to its online archive, Time magazine has given few column inches over to gold investing since the Sept. 2011 highs). Meanwhile, the bearish bandwagon may already have lost a wheel.
Italy's elections and the Fed chairman's latest speech today don't quite fit that consensus.

Straws in the wind maybe. But they don't quite fit a long-term drop in gold prices either. Which may be too bad for long-term gold buyers hoping for a proper pullback in prices, such as 1975-1977 offered.

(c) 2013

Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it.


Companies Mentionned : Signal |
Data and Statistics for these countries : Italy | All
Gold and Silver Prices for these countries : Italy | All
<< Previous article
Rate :Average :5 (6 votes)
>> Next article
Latest comment posted for this article
Be the first to comment
Add your comment
Top articles
Latest Comments
Napoleon vs. Cheney: "Interrogat...
15:16Josu O.
I cannot overstate how important is that every american read this article. It's absolutely wonderful how you have summarized every aspect around to...
Muslim terrorism, the left and t...
10:38end
Does anyone still wonder why is Australia hotbed for second generation Muslim migrant radicalization? Does anyone still need an explanation on why ...
Gold & Silver Market Morning
17 Decsamking731
Gypsie, my take on what he's saying is on paper gold, not actual gold that you are holding in your hand. In that way, gold is gold, though Pandas ...
Gold & Silver Market Morning
17 DecGypsy1
You have me confused Julian. When you say "We believe that holders of gold in the Ruble. . . . ." I take it you are not talking about someone hold...
Gold Price chart showing big dro...
17 Decuser47791
The article ludicrously misinterprets the chart. What the chart shows is the market price of German Aktien, namely shares in British or stocks in A...
New Poll Shows US Citizens in Ev...
17 DecJosu O.
It's very sad to see such support of torture in USA. What is incredible is that a lot of those people consider themselves christians and nice peopl...
Why I Quit
16 Decmykey992
I feel for you and appreciate your courage. Being placed in an unwinnable situation is never pleasant. Recognizing and acknowledging one's situat...
Muslim terrorism, the left and t...
16 Decmattellery
I'm actually sorry I read this article. I'm an Australian and watched this terrible event unfold live. Everybody knew he was a Muslim, since he w...
Most commented articlesFavoritesMore...
World PM Newsflow
ALL
GOLD
SILVER
PGM & DIAMONDS
OIL & GAS
OTHER METALS
Comments closed
Subscribe to 24hGold’s daily market briefing
  • Prices and data of precious metals in 119 currencies and world mining companies
  • Daily analysis of the economy, markets and more
  • Free, daily and indispensable
Stay informed, subscribe now !
* Your email will never be shared.