Silver and gold start the week off lower with 1216-1218 last support before 1200 by Bill Downey

Gold Daily Report ~ Feb 17 2015

Trend
Long Term ~ Bearish-Need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market final phase underway. Need a monthly close above 1560 to neutralize the trend.
Medium Term ~ Neutral– Gold has been upgraded to neutral, but just barely.
Intermediate Term ~ Bearish– Need close above 1272-1285 for full bullish
Short Term ~ Bearish- Must hold 1216-1222 or lower to 1190-1200

Initial Resistance 1234-1243 2nd tier 1247-1255
Support 1216-1222 2nd tier 1197-1207

The last update had resistance at 1237-1243 and the high since then is 1235. Support was listed at 1216-1222 and the low since then is 1218 (Tuesday morning).

Silver Slammed As Stocks Rally Back To Scene Of EU Crime
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/17/2015

US equities have miraculously recovered their EU-Greek talks-breakdown losses from yesterday in a mad buying panic reminiscent of the very best work from FBRNY. As if that did not confirm everything was awesome in the status quo, silver (and to a lesser extent gold) have been take to the woodshed this morning. Treasury yields are still down 2bps from Friday's close but have jumped 3-4bps on this morning's exuberance. The dollar has given back all of yesterday's gains and then some and is now -0.2% from Friday.

Greece: What Happened Monday, And What Happens Next
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/16/2015

Ultimately, then, we are still left with the same three-step process to reach a conclusion to the Greek crisis.
•Step 1 consists of a request for a new program or an application for a 3rd ESM program with Greece committing to some a prior conditionality.
•Step 2 consists of negotiating the substance around this conditionality, in particular the prior actions that would need to be fulfilled to disburse funding to Greece.
•Step 3 would consist of passing such prior actions through the Greek parliament and ultimately servicing Greece's loan obligations.

The more each of these steps is delayed, the shorter the timespans available and the greater the risks of failure.

Latest Greek Negotiations Fall Apart; Risk Slides After Greece Says "Won't Take Orders On Bailout"
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/16/2015

UPDATE: *EU FINANCE MINISTERS' TALKS WITH GREECE OVER FOR TODAY, GREECE SAYS WON'T TAKE ORDERS ON BAILOUT

That didn't last long. It seems - just as earlier in the week - the ability for either side in this Euro-system death match game of chicken to find any common ground to even start negotiations remains lost: GREEK GOVT OFFICIAL SAYS THAT "THERE CANNOT BE A DEAL TODAY", EUROGROUP DISCUSSED "UNREASONABLE", "UNACCEPTABLE" DRAFT TEXT INSISTING ON EXTENDING BAILOUT. In fact, reports sya that the text presented was a reversal of last Thursday's agreement... The Germans are now calling for Tsipras to replace Varoufakis at the negotiating table.

World War 3, The Big Prize, & Europe's Gigantic Debt Minefield
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/16/2015

In case anyone didn’t get ISIL’s message from their latest video in which 21 Egyptian Coptic Christians have their heads sawn off, here it is: “We’re executioners, not warriors.” The Big Prize, of course, is the grand fortress of Saudi Arabia. The kingdom is surrounded by Islamic maniacs now and if Saudi Arabia falls apart, it’s game over for modern life as the West has known it (and much of Asia now, too). But Europe is a gigantic debt minefield that no one can really walk across. Other parts of it than Greece are just waiting to blow up, and will, and it’s unclear whether Europe is even paying attention to the blood-red welcome mat that was laid out in Libya last weekend.

Cometh The Censor
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/16/2015

Washington is stepping up its campaign to censor the internet. It had to come, and will succeed. It will put paid forever to America’s flirtation with freedom. We are hard pressed to think of a society in such internal decline that has turned itself around, and we cannot imagine how America might do so. One sure thing is that, once the internet is gelded, there will be no hope at all. And the assault has begun.

Our thanks to www.zerohedge.com for the above articles.

Gold Short term

Price is again at 1st support for the week at 1216-1222 which is also a weekly reversal zone so it an important point. If we happen to lose 1216 during the day, than 1197-1207 zone will come into play on Tuesday. Resistance is the 1234-1243 area. Odds favor we either bottom at this 1220 area on the short term or near the 1200 area. Overall the short term trend is still down.

CYCLES
The cycle inverted and will favor lower into Feb 19th (plus or minus 72 hours). Any close below 1216 favors gold to test 1172-1202. Resistance for this week is 1247-1255 and up to 1266. Since the window for the cycle low begins today, it still is possible for gold to hold the 1216 area.

HUI GOLD STOCK INDEX
Intermediate Term Trend ~ Bearish
Intermediate Term Moving Averages – 197.66 – 199.35

Prices are moving lower and favored to reach 174-184
It’s going to be key to hold that next level.

If the HUI is just in a correction and is going to begin to move higher, it needs to hold the 174-184 area.

The key for higher prices is evident on the chart as price must overcome the green and yellow trend lines we’ve failed four times now. That's what it takes to open the upside. IF we can`t recapture the moving averages at 199, odds favor a pullback to 174-184.

NUGT
Intermediate Trend –Bearish
Moving Averages – 17.55 – 18.07

As long as NUGT is below the moving averages the intermediate term favors lower. We need a close above 18 in order to neutralize the current downtrend. Support is the 10 area and resistance 18-19.

Gold Medium Term
Long Term Trend ~ Bearish since Oct 2013 @ 1361
Long term Moving averages 1414 – 1492
Medium Term Trend ~NEUTRAL 1245 – 1253

The medium term trend moved to neutral with the January close above 1272 and price lasted just one week before coughing up 1272 and the weakness gave us a weekly close below both averages (1247-1255). Indeed that is not a bullish omen, but the key now is how gold is going to react this week.

A monthly close below 1216-1222 will put the medium term trend right back in bearish mode.

Resistance is now 1247-1272 on a weekly closing basis. If gold closes below 1216-1222 odds favor prices will re-visit 1172. Most important was the rejection of price at the triple green trend line. In order for gold to get bullish on the medium term, it must make this triple line SUPPORT and not resistance. That is the bottom line.

GOLD ETF GLD
Moving Average Trend ~ 121.13 – 121.97 – Bearish

Building up for one position, so it’s not a backing up the truck purchase.
This should be 1 stock position in your portfolio – NO MORE THAN THAT. BGT ¼ of a position at 153 on 3/7/13 and ¼ at 145 on 4/14/13 and ¼ at 131 on 4/16 and ¼ at 125 on 6/20

GLD keeps toying with that trend line near 117. The only saving potential at this time is the short term cycles are due to bottom. Otherwise gold remains weak.

GDX
Intermediate term Trend 21.87 – 22.03 ~ Neutral

It`s the same for GDX. The break of the moving averages has nullified the move above that resistance line. Unless prices reverse and close back above 22.05, odds favor a move to the 18-19 area.

What next?

The next RED SHORT TERM CYCLE window opens today for a low Feb 19th (plus or minus 72 hours).

A close below 1216-1222 selects the downtrend into 1172-1202.

It takes a close above 1239 to neutralize the short term downtrend.

Bottom Line

The pressure remains on gold and the upside trend in the US dollar has yet to break into a correction of any magnitude.

	RSS feed		24hGold Mobile
	Gold Data Center		Gold & Silver Converter
	Gold coins on eBay		Silver coins on eBay
	Technical Analysis		Fundamental Analysis