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Silver Update ~ February 19, 2014
Trend
Long Term ~ Bearish– Close above 30.33 on monthly basis to return full bullish
Medium Term ~ Neutral – Two consecutive weekly closes above 21.03 and 21.79 would confirm the bearish to neutral change.
Intermediate Term ~ Bullish – Resistance at 22.10 - 23.10.
Short Term ~ Bullish – Resistance at 22.10 - 23.10.
Initial resistance 22.10-22.30 and 2nd tier 22.90 -23.10.
Initial Support 21.20 – 21.40 and 2nd tier 20.70 – 20.90.
Silvers low today was at a key area 21.33. This was the 2008 high and this area is basically the pivot for Elliot wavers.
An initial target for silver could become 22.60-23.11 and potentially 25-27 at some point.
We posted yesterday that Silver should make it up to 22.10-22.20. We got as high as 21.97. A close above that adds to the upside potential to the above numbers listed.
On a long term basis, the LOG scale below in silver shows the bull market does have a major support line that was touched.
 
Silver Hourly Chart
We keep looking for a price channel to construct on the hourly but we are still uncertain.
Support is 21.20-21.35 and then 20.60-20.82. Resistance is 22.00-22.20 for now. The trend is still up and we think that the pullback in silver will not be much deeper than the 20.60 area or perhaps 21.20. As soon as silver works off any overbought condition on the short term, odds favor we’ll see higher prices.
AGQ ~ Silver Bull 3X
Moving Average Trend ~ 66.30 - 65.16
Trend has turned bullish.
Price has closed higher and the next resistance area is the channel line just under 85. Support is the channel line at 73 and the moving averages at 65-67. Any pullback toward that area should provide strong support. IF we do get a dip to month end, odds favor it as a buy opportunity.
Silver Medium Term Weekly Price Chart
Long Term Trend ~ Bearish 28.75 - 30.65
Medium Term Trend ~ Bearish 20.87 - 21.26
The medium term trend has moved from Bearish to Neutral. To confirm we need to see another weekly close above 21.33 and a Feb monthly close at that area also. The moving averages for the medium term are now 2087-2126.
RESISTANCE this week is 22.10-22.30 on a medium term basis and then 23.11.
Support is around 20.50 – 20.80 and additional support is the 19.90-20.05 area. As discussed last week and prior weeks, an important low near the end of December/early January still holds promise in cycles that a rally can develop from this area. The next targets will be 22.60-23.11 if we can remain closing above 21.33.
The initial target for silver could become 22.60-23.11 and potentially 25-27 at some point. At the very least, Silver should make it up to 22.10-22.20. A close above that adds to the upside potential to the above numbers listed.
Silver ETF (SLV)
Intermediate Term Trend ~ Bullish
Moving Average Trend ~ 19.25 - 19.08; (Silver ETF trades about $1 dollar lower than spot.)
The next price resistance are the channel lines that were reached on TUESDAY. We need to close above them in order for the rally to continue. A short-term pullback should, at least initially, develop from these lines. The trend is up but let’s watch these lines for resistance. A pullback to fill the gap would BE CONSIDERED A GREAT BUYING AREA.
What Next?
Silver has broken out of the huge congestion area and now has resistance at 22.00 to 22.20 and 23.11. Support is 21.10 to 21.30 and 20.60 to 20.90.
Bottom Line
Odds favored a breakout has occurred and a move 23 to 25 dollars should be in play on the medium term.
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