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We
have roughly three weeks of precious metals rallies until the next cycle
correction is expected on the technicals between April 5 and 9. That
theoretically, could be the metals’ market top for the first half of
2010, but we do not think so. Following the early April selling, look for
another complete rally for gold and silver and their related shares taking us
into May. Then, in May we should see a spring selling cycle we have been
forecasting for months. That later cycle is expected to take down almost all
markets and perhaps some rather severely. Metals cycle number two is unconfirmed
but we are seeing signals that this event is a distinct possibility. Market
cycles have been tardy so far in 2010.
Weekly
gold completes standard ABC correction; bases in waves 1-2 for rally.
Note
that gold has broken through old and hard resistance at $1,000 going back to
2008. This is the new main floor protecting price at $1,007 on the
technicals. Next, we see price riding the lower channel but, importantly
staying above the line. Also, we see the weekly price at 1127.70 on this
Wednesday, far above the 41 day moving average of 1053.45. Momentum is down
mildly but previous yearly April highs are evident.
Silver
Has Normally Corrected. A New Rally Is Underway.
 
Silver
signals are good for trend as this market is volatile and prone to quick
moves. We see hard support and resistance at $17.50 and a higher top at $20
from January last year. Momentum was falling but has supported. And like
gold, silver’s price is above the 17-day and 43 day moving averages.
This is bullish.
Precious
Metals Shares Weaker Than Metals. US Dollar Is Stuck On 80.00.
Shares
are still tied to the bigger stock markets. We expect a divergence but it
could take several more months. This change-over could be gradual but we did
see one instance when gold, silver and the dollar were all rising together in
unison. That was a small divergence and it did not hold nor continue. The XAU
momentum is down but basing. There is heavy duty XAU support and resistance
at 170.92 with our price at 169.92.
A
good support signal shows the 41 day moving average at 160.58.
US
Dollar Index Is Stalled At 80.00 Support And Resistance.
The
dollar chart has some classic technical patterns including the latest bear
wedge breakout followed by the consolidation top near 80.00. (1) The dollar
price of 80.00 is THE major number on this chart for several years. (2) Price
is supported by the up-sloping channel line. (3) Consequently, the dollar is
crowded into a corner at 80.00 with the support line squeezing it from the
bottom. Today we see hard support but expect a sell next month falling under
79.50 to perhaps 77.50 hard dollar support.
One
of two top annual gold and silver trading cycles is now open for business.
While
the first and second quarters’ precious metals cycles were tardy, get
busy and get investing and trading. We forecast a stronger upside for the
next 4-8 weeks followed by some short selling on the obvious forthcoming
mainstream failures in credit and banks. Short selling could commence
anywhere from an April 5-9 peak to as much as 4-6 weeks later in May. Keep in
mind, seasonal cycles in several markets have been thrown off normal annual
schedules since the Lehman messes.
Traders
and investors should be buying physical and shares right now. In our
newsletter we have a great list of trading and investing ideas for you.
Meanwhile, you can never go wrong buying physical precious metals and holding
them for security. We’ve had a constant run of nearly ten years in gold
rising 12-15% per year. It’s not going to stop any time soon. In fact,
we predict those annual percentages will rise even more and this a chance
arriving usually once in 25 years on the cycles. Good
trading! - Traderrog
Roger Wiegand
www.webeatthestreet.com
Roger
Wiegand is Editor of Trader
Tracks Newsletter and of
the Rog Blog at www.webeatthestreet.com.
Roger provides recommendations for short and longer term trading using stocks,
futures and commodities with specifics.
Contact Claudio Bassi, at Trader
Track’s New York City publishing offices for a trial subscription. Call 718-457-1426 Monday
through Friday,
9:30am to 5pm or, e-mail cbassi@miningstocks.com
Recommendations
made in “Trader Tracks” are exclusively those of Roger Wiegand
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