Stocks Get Closer To June Record High, Will Uptrend Continue?

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Published : July 13th, 2017
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Category : Opinions and Analysis

Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish. Our medium-term outlook remains neutral, following S&P 500 index breakout above last year's all-time high:

Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral

The main U.S. stock market indexes gained between 0.6% and 1.1% on Wednesday, breaking above their recent trading range, as investors' sentiment improved following economic data releases, Fed's Janet Yellen's Congressional Testimony. The S&P 500 index got close to its June 19 all-time high of 2,453.82. It trades just 0.4% below that record high. Stocks have rebounded following their early July move down. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was relatively weaker than the broad stock market yesterday, as it gained 0.6%. However, it reached new record high at the level of 21,580.8. The technology Nasdaq Composite was relatively stronger again, as it gained 1.1%. It has retraced more of its recent move down. The nearest important support level of the S&P 500 index is at around 2,430-2,435, marked by yesterday's daily gap up of 2,429.30-2,435.75. The next support level remains at 2,400-2,410, marked by the May 25 daily gap up of 2,405.58-2,408.01, among others. On the other hand, level of resistance is at 2,450-2,455, marked by all-time high. There have been no confirmed negative signals so far. However, we can see overbought conditions and negative technical divergences. The S&P 500 index is trading within its over month-long consolidation, as we can see on the daily chart:

24hGold - Stocks Get Closer To...

Closer To Record High

Expectations before the opening of today's trading session are positive, with index futures currently up 0.1-0.3% vs. their Wednesday's closing prices. The European stock market indexes have gained 0.1-0.6% so far. Investors will now wait for some economic data announcements: Initial Claims, Producer Price Index at 8:30 a.m. The market expects that Initial Claims were at 245,000 last week, and Producer Price Index fell 0.1% in June. The S&P 500 futures contract trades within an intraday consolidation, following an overnight move up. The market continued its yesterday's rally. The nearest important level of resistance is at around 2,445-2,450, marked by record high. On the other hand, support level is at 2,440, and the next support level is at 2,420-2,430, marked by recent consolidation. Will the market continue towards new all-time highs? Or is this some topping pattern before downward reversal?

24hGold - Stocks Get Closer To...

Techs March Higher

The technology Nasdaq 100 futures follows a similar path, as it trades within an intraday consolidation. The Nasdaq extends its short-term uptrend. The nearest important level of resistance is at around 5,850, marked by previous local high. On the other hand, support level is at 5,750-5,800, and the next level of support remains at 5,700-5,720, as the 15-minute chart shows:

24hGold - Stocks Get Closer To...

Concluding, the S&P 500 index broke above its recent trading range yesterday, as investors' sentiment improved. Will uptrend continue towards new record highs? Or is this some topping pattern within an over-month long consolidation? There have been no confirmed negative signals so far. However, we still can see negative technical divergences, along with some medium-term overbought conditions.

If you enjoyed the above analysis and would like to receive free follow-ups, we encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter – it’s free and if you don’t like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you’ll also get 7 days of free access to our premium daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up now.

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Paul Rejczak
Stock Trading Strategist
Stock Trading Alerts

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Przemyslaw Radomski is the founder, owner and the main editor of www.SunshineProfits.com. Being passionately curious about the market’s behavior he uses his statistical and financial background to question the common views and profit on the misconceptions. “Don’t fight the emotionality on the market – take advantage of it!” is one of his favorite mottos. His time is divided mainly to analyzing various markets with emphasis on the precious metals, managing his own portfolio, writing commentaries, essays and developing financial software. Most of the time he’s got left is spent on reading everything he can about the markets, psychology, philosophy and statistics. Mr. Radomski has started investigating the markets for his private use well before starting his professional career. He used to work as an informatics consultant, but this time-consuming profession left him little time for his true passion – the interdisciplinary market analysis. Establishing www.SunshineProfits.com gave him the opportunity to put his thoughts, ideas, and experience into form available to other investors.
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