I have had more than a few emails asking me what I think of the current
set-up for stocks, bonds, currencies and gold since everything began to
re-inflate a few days ago and without going off on a literary tangent, it is
obvious that the banks are absolutely freaking out over the declining
high-end real estate numbers coming in from not only the money centers but
also the fringe regions. Mortgages, the bulk of the loan portfolios for the
global banking industry, are only as sound as the collateral upon which they
are hypothecated (secured) and if you go back to the sub-prime crisis of
2008, the big revenue drivers for the banks were the sheer volume of homes
being financed. Like every masterfully run Ponzi, the Greater Fool Theory is
allowed to sustain itself only as long as the banks and the regulators all
agree that there are "no limits" and with that, "no
rules."
It was 2003 that the U.S. real estate market was experiencing a modest
correction and no one was particularly worried about it because they had
years and years of payments into their houses and "SO WHAT?" if the
market was going sideways. However, the bankers, so astute at managing
leverage, had earlier decided that it was time to reduce the margin
requirement so while you and I could care less about a 5% drop in the
"median house price," if you were a Goldman banker or a Merrill
banker or a JPM banker that was operating at 30:1 leverage ratio, that 5%
drop put you out of business. Which, as we all know, did occur and indeed DID
put the banks technically "out of business" until Helicopter Ben
rode in and along with the U.S. Congress, allowed the banks to not only
survive, but actually issue bonuses to the in-house criminals in the same
year in which the public taxpayer bailed them out!
This chart showing housing prices since 1965 really does
show us all the frailty of central bank analysis and why, in the final
analysis, citizens have no real chance to benefit from their input. I am of
the belief that those that control of the public purse, which includes the
treasury and the central bank, should be ELECTED, as opposed to APPOINTED.
In the days of yore when the ELECTED officials were in charge of
everything EXCEPT money, people voted for nominees that had integrity,
intensity, and "snarl." Today, with the fading of the we Boomers
(that enslaved our offspring with unimaginable debt), the youth of today have
taken our lead and decided that being in debt is just part of managing life.
Well, I can tell you that those that believed that in the Roaring Twenties
got a rude awakening in the Dirty Thirties. The bankers liquidated anything
and everything that was "chattel" in order to make sure that the
bank survived.
That we have gone beyond that is understatement; our banking system today
is nothing but an arachnidan web of self interest and elitism. When Canada
was founded in 1867, the "elitists" were farmers whose average
yield per acre was in excess of what the rest of the world boasted. The
company that funded most things in the years after Canadian Confederation was
Massey-Harris (later Massey-Ferguson) because the main item of CAPEX was
equipment required to plant and harvest the enormous Prairie crops with a
close second being forestry. There was never a need for financial engineering
because central banks could not influence the weather patterns that governed
yield and the associated CAPEX. There were years when farmers flourished and
there were years when floods or drought brought in bankruptcy but there were
NEVER years where the farmer's lobby was before Parliament or Congress on
bended knee begging for a bailout. They managed risk on their own with nary a
sniff of the moral hazard permeating the 2019 landscape today.
Last Christmas Eve, I looked at the RSI for the S&P 500 at around 18
and told the world that probabilities would dictate a solidly robust 2019 for
the S&P but little did I see the Fed pivot coming where they went from
"hawkish" to "dovish" without even a thirty-second
interlude for "neutral." As I look back, I think it was the October
downgrade of the GE paper and the ensuing 21-day freeze-up in bond issuances
that evoked tremors of 2008 and thus triggered the massive turn in policy.
Stocks picked up on it immediately and instead of heading south for the New
Year, one of the biggest rallies of all time was unleashed and "Happy
Days" were once again visiting the corner of Broad and Wall, party horns
blaring and CNBC anchors cheering.
However, there is one thing that the stockroaches failed to remember a
month ago at the new all-time high of 2,954.13, the one thing that the Fed
cannot change is the one looming threat to not only stocks but to the living
standards and societal integrity so "entitled" to the New
Generation and that is the word "D-E-B-T." At a figure north of $22
trillion, it is an unsustainable number and cannot continue. At the same
time, it is a number SO very large that it cannot be reduced. The only
solution is to try to maintain its ascent while reflating upward the GDP
numbers by way of massive money creation (or so they think) but we all know
that the impact of $1 of credit creation in 1990 increased GDP by a factor of
around 15 times what $1 does here in 2019. The money-printing elixir is now
virtually impotent in seeding real organic growth but what other avenues to
the central banks have? None. And that is why gold and silver remain the safest
assets to hold in an era where the authorities are trying desperately,
through propaganda, interventions, and regulatory dismissal, to diminish the
public's attitudes and behaviors toward them.
It is with one look at the National Debt chart that I stubbornly refuse to
participate in the 2019 stock market rally. I see far too much risk. Where I
sit today is that I am flat all call options on the metals and miners and
hold only a 25% position in NUGT (Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bull 3X Shares),
having taken profits earlier this week with the last tranche of the JNUG
(Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Bull 3X Shares) going out at $9.15.
Average sale prices were around $8.80 adding another 25% return to the
portfolio. NUGT will generate about the same and that is pretty darn good
considering I was underwater on both JNUG and NUGT on May 25. Amazing how
fast they turn…
I have Goldman Sachs once again on the radar after covering at around $181
with a sale of the July $180 puts at $6.60, which was a triple but on a
relatively small allocation. Had I allocated the same in that trade as I had
in the Miner ETFs, it would be "Pop the Cork" time and I could head
out on a world tour and take the rest of 2019 off. However, I didn't and
therefore I can't so here I stay, chained to the desk, destined to churn out
profitable trades so that angry wolf is unable to enter the house. The junior
explorcos continue to be ignored but I am urging everyone to keep a close watch
on Getchell
Gold Corp. (GTCH:CSE) whose program has been completed with assays
pending. As the company reported back in January, it intended to drill to a
maximum depth of 3,400 feet through an enormous 1 km3 resistivity
anomaly and if that zone is mineralized, the response is going to be
substantial. We should find out in about three weeks so at $0.20, it is a
pretty cheap call on what could be a brand-new Nevada discovery.
[NLINSERT]
Charts courtesy of Michael Ballanger.
Michael Ballanger Disclaimer:
This letter makes no guarantee or warranty on the accuracy or completeness of
the data provided. Nothing contained herein is intended or shall be deemed to
be investment advice, implied or otherwise. This letter represents my views
and replicates trades that I am making but nothing more than that. Always
consult your registered advisor to assist you with your investments. I accept
no liability for any loss arising from the use of the data contained on this
letter. Options and junior mining stocks contain a high level of risk that
may result in the loss of part or all invested capital and therefore are
suitable for experienced and professional investors and traders only. One
should be familiar with the risks involved in junior mining and options
trading and we recommend consulting a financial adviser if you feel you do
not understand the risks involved.
