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Heading into this Thanksgiving week we
should see much less volume coming in, especially Wednesday on with markets
closed Thursday and only partially open for a few hours Friday.
Thanksgiving week is one of the quietest
weeks of the year and a great time to use the quiet time for study,
reflection and planning for the time to come. And of course, gorge on Turkey
and all the fixings with family and friends.
This year may be a little different though
since it looks very much like we’ve put a low in Friday for markets and
many leading stocks.
As for gold and silver, they had a
decent week in terms of hanging onto life by a thread!
The mining indices are crashing along
with many mining stocks and they are leading gold and silver by a few days so
I’d have to come to the conclusion that gold and silver investors
aren’t going to be so thankful this Thanksgiving week.
As much as I love gold and silver and
think they are the go to investment, there are still many other trades to ply
when investing and they pay much better than simply sitting in gold and
silver.
Not that I’ve change my view.
I still hold a very high percentage in
physical gold and silver and don’t see that changing anytime soon but
that percentage is shrinking fast as cash is built up trading other vehicles.
I wouldn't mind a couple hundred dollar off sale in gold in fact and I’d be adding to
my positions on such a move if it is to come.
Let’s get into the precious metals
charts and see whats going on. I’ll show a
few more charts than usual today, and write less.
I like to keep the fluff down and keep
the meat level high for subscribers.
Metals review
Gold fell 0.99% this past week which
isn’t bad considering how many others fared. The little pattern
it’s got, kind of a reverse head and shoulders, is often good for
higher prices but this time I don't think so.
Volume is accelerating as gold falls and
there are other major factors which are telling me gold is going to fall
harder, soon. I’ll get into them a bit later.
I’m looking at $1,680 as the first
level of support, then $1,640.
I hope I’m wrong, but I really
don’t think so. If you’re looking for an early Christmas gift of
physical gold or silver I’d hang off as they should be soon on sale.
Silver slipped 0.55% on the week and
also has a kind of mini reverse head and shoulders pattern that is also looking
set to fail. Next stop, or support area is at $31 with both
horizontal support as well as the 200 and 100 day moving averages
there.
If $31 falls then there really
isn’t much support until $29, but $28 is much better support.
We can fall fast as I’m sure
you’re aware so be careful here if you’re long on a trading
basis.
Platinum was pretty well flat having
risen 0.39% this past week.
Platinum has a well
defined bear flag pattern here which point to lower prices. The
measured move is some $200 lower but let’s focus
on the first support level for today.
$1,500 should act as a bit of support,
but to be honest it’s not looking good here for platinum unfortunately.
Palladium tried to break out of this
bear flag on the upside and also above it’s
200 and 50 day moving averages but it failed. That is always a sign of
trouble to come.
Now palladium is trying to get below it’s 21 and 100 day moving
averages and move to the lower end of it’s
bear flag. If the flag breaks then $570 will be seen in short order.
The high volume on the breakout failure
certainly points to lower prices.
Let’s take a quick look at a few
tip-offs we had and have that the precious metals are heading lower.
I’ve been really impressed with
the pattern in most mining indices lately but seeing the large base fail was
the sign that gold and silver are heading lower.
It's definitely tax loss selling season
now in full force and I’d have to expect it to get worse before it gets
better.
The smaller mining company ETF has the
exact same pattern and almost guarantees gold and silver are going to follow
it lower.
Yes it sucks.
I’ve been a long suffering mining
share investor for longer than I care to remember some days but luckily it
still remains a small portions of my total
investments.
I see it as gambling almost and let them
ride for the most part but I definitely have thoughts of just getting out
altogether with a few exceptions.
Even those few favorite companies of
mine who are performing very well are signalling
lower prices to come and have fallen very quickly as of late.
I wonder if we’ll ever have our
day in the mining shares sometimes.
The SIL ETF had the best base of all the
mining indices but nothing is ever certain and if you can’t accept
reality and take a loss quickly, I guarantee it will get much larger.
These and the other
mining ETF’s and indices falling hard and before gold and silver
is no fun, but if you’re quick you can certainly take advantage of the
coming gold and silver move lower.
Have a great weekend and week ahead and
if I’m not in touch next weekend please have yourself
a fantastic few days off with family and friends.
They are what really make life so
special.
Warren
Bevan
www.preciousmetalstockreview.com
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