This morning reader "PSB" sent me a link to United Airlines Grounds All Flights in the US Over Computer
Issues.
PSB asked "And how will this be prevented?"
He commented "Insurance industries will not be able to stop the easy
fear campaign old ways will scare the masses away from the future. A 15 year
old DREAMS of a driver's license and independence. You know that sense of
freedom to turn left when one is supposed to turn right is second to the
inevitable auto taxi culture?"
His question seemed reasonable for about 10 seconds. The answer should be
easy to spot: Unlike airlines, there is no central computer controlling the
flight or whereabouts of all cars.
Simply put, there is no potential centralized computer error to prevent.
Will there be problems? Of course there will be. There were also problems
going from horses to cars. The convenience of cars guaranteed whatever
problems arose would be solved. And they were.
Yes, there will be software updates and bugs with autonomous cars. But does
that radically differ from mechanical recalls? Not really.
PSB is concerned about problems that cannot possibly happen or will be
resolved quickly as they arise.
Fearmongering?
Nor will there be any lasting fearmongering campaigns. The irony here is that
"PSB" has the setup backwards. Insurance rates will plunge because
there will be fewer accidents. I expect many of them to go out of business.
Finally, "PSB" has not grasped the changing dreams of millennials
who view transportation only as a means of getting from point A to point B,
nor the changing needs of aging boomers who have difficulty with night
vision.
Technology marches on, whether people believe it will or not.
Drone Pizza Delivery
On December 3, 2013, I asked How Will Pizzas Be Delivered? Do You Tip a Drone?
Do You Tip a Drone?
Dominos does not deliver to my area. Nor Does Pizza hut. Yet, I am less
distance away from their stores than many places they will deliver to. I am
just in a different town. A drone with a GPS would have no problems
whatsoever delivering to my address.
And it would be cheaper and faster, for me, as well as the pizza place to not
have to bother with human carriers or tips.
Like Amazon, Domino's Tests Delivery of Pizza by Remote-Controlled Drone.
Switzerland Tests Drone Package Delivery
Delivery by drone took a big leap forward this past week. The Swiss postal
service announced Postal
Drone Trials.
Switzerland’s postal service has begun practical trials of
its drone-based postal delivery service, the organisation announced in a post
today. The project is a collaboration between Swiss Post, Swiss World Cargo
and California-based drone startup Matternet, which is supplying the
lightweight airborne carriers.
Swiss Post emphasises that the practical trials which begin this month will
not lead to a commercial service in less than five years, and additionally
that drones are not expected to predominate as a new delivery method in
Switzerland: ‘The possible areas of application offered by drone technology
are very diverse, ranging from delivery to peripheral areas to the express
delivery of goods.
Amazon is also far advanced in its own tests of drone delivery, but similar
projects in all countries are likely to be delayed, perhaps for some years,
while national regulatory frameworks are established for commercial use of
drones.
Google is also very far into research on its own disaster-zone/postal drone,
named Project Wing, whilst Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba began its own
practical drone delivery trials in February of this year.’
Project Wing and Alibaba
Drone delivery may be further off than antonymous cars due to regulatory
concerns and genuine insurance issues.
One can easily dream up all sorts of problems with drones regarding airspace
flight paths, mid-air crashes, restricted space issues, etc.
So what? The problems will all be solved one-by-one.
Peak Cars, Peak Drivers
The need for drivers of all sorts will vanish as I stated yesterday in "UberCab" vs. Al Gore's $90 Trillion Plan to Rid
World of Cars: Uber CEO Asks Tesla for 500,000 Autonomous Cars in 2020; Peak
Cars?
By 2020 (more or less), there will not be any discourteous
Uber drivers, bad drivers, or unresponsive drivers because there will not be
any Uber drivers at all.
Al Gore to the rescue, NOT.
Al Gore's $90 Trillion Plan to Rid Cities of Cars
As preposterous as it may seem, Al Gore has a Plan to Spend $90 Trillion to Get Rid of Cars in Cities.
"Former Vice President Al Gore and Mexican President Felipe Calderon
proposed a $90 trillion plan to redesign every city on earth so that motor
vehicles would become obsolete due to more dense populations."
Never underestimate the stupidity of politicians and their ridiculously
expensive solutions to non-problems that the free market will take care of on
its own.
Pertinent Observation
The pertinent observation of the week goes to NewFedFAA.
He responded to my post with ... I'll make a prediction of my own: Within
a few years of their introduction, autonomous cars will be so much safer than
human driven cars you will not be able to afford insurance on a human
operated car. They will force people into robot cars in very short order.
That's a person thinking clearly.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
