Inquiring minds may be interested in a cornucopia of relevant numbers on
Deutsche Bank including market cap, leverage, capitalization, deposits,
liquidity, derivatives multiple ways, and systemic risk.
Systemic risk numbers are from Nobel Laureate Robert Engle.
Deutsche Bank by the Numbers
- Systemic Risk: $100 billion (see explanation and chart
below)
- Notional derivatives: €42 trillion, an amount about the
size of the German economy
- Market value of Derivatives: €18 billion
- Equity: €67 billion
- Assets: €1.6 trillion
- Leverage Ratio: 25-1
- Level 3 assets: (Illiquid potentially mark-to fantasy
assets) €32 billion
- Outstanding Fines: €12.47 billion ($14 billion)
- Ready liquidity: €220 billion
- Investment bank employees: (Risk takers – M.R.Ts in EU
regulatory circles) 1,871
- MRT salaries: €2 billion
- Market Cap: €16.2 billion
All numbers except market cap from Deutsche Bank’s Appetite for Risk Throws Off Its Balance.
Here are some interesting snips, interspersed with my comments in
brackets.
More than eight years after the collapse of Lehman Brothers sent shock
waves around the world, the fear is whether Deutsche Bank and its highly
leveraged balance sheet of 1.6 trillion euros might teeter and set off
another bout of financial contagion.
Those worries calmed down somewhat late last week as Deutsche Bank’s
shares rose after reports that the bank may be close to cutting a deal with
the United States Justice Department regarding the fine it must pay for
selling toxic mortgages during the financial crisis. [Those are
unsubstantiated rumors. Recent reports suggest there is no settlement in
progress.]
There has also been a growing realization that Deutsche Bank, even with
its thin cushion of cash, is in much better financial shape than Lehman
Brothers was. In a letter to employees on Friday, Deutsche’s chief executive,
John Cryan, highlighted the “strong fundamentals” of the bank. [BS by Cryan
hardly constitutes a growing realization of anything. Shares had a one day
bounce based on a rumor that as of now appears false.]
It has €220 billion, or $247 billion, in ready liquidity, compared with
$45 billion for Lehman in 2007, and the bank can also tap central banks in
the United States and in Europe for a financial lifeline if need be. [Won’t
that be fun?]
“What makes Deutsche Bank systemic is their sheer size combined with the
leverage that is required to stay in the flow and be an intermediary,” said
Anthony J. Perrotta Jr., an expert in the structure of financial markets at
TABB Group, a consulting firm. “But as capital becomes more scarce, this
becomes a fragile equation.”
Deutsche Bank has €67 billion ($75 billion) in equity that supports assets
of €1.6 trillion ($1.8 trillion), which mean it is levered at a ratio of 25
to 1.
By comparison, JPMorgan has $224 billion in cash backing $2.4 trillion in
assets, which produces a far healthier ratio of 9 to 1.
Making Deutsche Bank’s ratio more troubling is that many of these assets
are of the most illiquid variety, called Level 3 securities, for which
establishing a price is guesswork and finding a buyer near impossible.
Stuart Graham, a banking analyst with Autonomous Research in London, says
that Deutsche Bank has more high-paid risk takers than any other bank —
including JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs and Credit Suisse.
Most analysts believe that Deutsche Bank needs to raise an extra €5
billion to €7 billion from investors in order to calm concerns about its
financial health, especially in light of the fact that the Justice Department
may require the firm to pay a penalty of at least this amount. [€7 billion
will not do squat. Where did they dream up that number? Add €7 billion to
equity and you have €74 billion in equity vs. €1.6 trillion in assets of
which €32 billion are level-3 assets likely marked to fantasy. Anyway,
another €7 billion would bring the leverage ratio down to a bit under 23-1.]
$100 Billion Undercapitalized?
Robert Engle, an economist at New York University who was awarded the
Nobel Prize for his work on volatility and capital markets, has designed a
model that ranks financial institutions in terms of their systemic risk.
The barometer takes into consideration leverage, the bank’s stock price
and its equity base, and as such it represents a real-time measure of the
dangers a bank poses to the financial system at a given moment in time.
Global regulators use it as well to complement their own internal models.
As of now, Deutsche Bank is ranked at the top among European banks
in terms of risk, requiring close to €100 billion in fresh cash to ensure
that it could survive a sustained sell-off in the markets.
German Economy Minister Blasts Deutsche Bank
On Sunday, Sigmar Gabriel, the German Economy Minister Accused Deutsche Bank of Making
Speculation its Business.
“I did not know if I should laugh or cry that the bank that made
speculation a business model is now saying it is a victim of speculators,”
Gabriel told reporters.
Systemic Risk
“There is just a lot of risk for Deutsche Bank right now,” Mr. Engle
said. “We have been worried about European banks for quite a while.”
Systemic risk chart from NYU economic Robert Engle.
Don’t worry, the total “Predicted System Capital Shortfall” on Friday,
September 30, 2016 is only US$1,197,485 million.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
