Yesterday’s price action was very bearish yet
again and we are patiently waiting for a counter trend pullback to happen.
While three are some good looking plays out there I really do not want to get
long until the market clears the air with a bout or three of strong selling.
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/ Broad Stock Market:
We have seen a bug run up in stocks this month and
things are looking a little long in the teeth. A large number of stocks are
trading above their upper Bollinger band and the broad market is testing that
key resistance level also. Typically when a Bollinger band is reached we see
price reverse for a couple days at minimum.
While the equities market is in a new uptrend as
seen by the moving averages I pullback seems imminient.
The last two days has formed reversal candles and are pointing to lower
Index Hourly Chart:
This chart shows a possible bottom forming in the
dollar pointing to a 3-8 day pullback in stocks.
Gold Futures Hourly Chart:
Looking at the charts on several different time
frames, not all shown here, technical analysis shows a pullback in stocks is
highly likely. This is what we are currently positioned for.
The US dollars downward momentum is slowing and if
it can find a bid today it should trigger strong selling in both stocks and
commodities. Gold and silver are down sharply along with miners.
We have been watching natural gas for a few months
and know that it has been trading inverse to what stocks do. This bodes well
for a bounce in natural gas if stocks start a sell off. That being said,
natural gas is trading at a key tipping point that could spark a very fast
and hard drop. This knife can fall at a speed that will take a slice out of
your trading account if not traded and managed properly (tiny position and
use of a stop). I actually like natural gas the more it moves down and could
issue a buy alert on it today or this week. I would like to see volume
decline at this level showing the momentum is slowing
Gold and Oil Guy