As if there weren’t enough crises to worry about in the world already,
from shooting rampages to accelerating species loss, the US and NATO continue
to ‘poke the bear’ and risk an outbreak of war with Russia.
I wish this were idle speculation. But if you haven’t been paying close
attention, you'll probably be shocked at just how much direct military and
diplomatic provocation has been going on between NATO/US and Russia over the
past several years -- and in recent weeks, in particular.
Even more shocking is that no one in power can provide us with a
compelling reason for exactly why these tensions are flaring. It seems that
Russia’s main sin is in not entirely, completely and immediately giving the
US/NATO anything and everything they request.
In other words, it’s imperial hubris and petulance that seems to be
driving the ship of state. That’s a dangerous thing.
I’ve written extensively on the dangers of war with Russia as my concerns
have mounted ever since the situation in Ukraine devolved in 2014.
There have been plenty of chances to dial down the rhetoric and mend
fences, but they've all come and gone without healing. In fact, as we detail
below, quite the opposite has happened.
The bottom line is this: If you're not already
mentally and physically prepared for the prospect of a NATO/US war with
Russia, you really should be.
Perhaps the chances of outright war are still low on a relative scale, but
the costs would be catastrophically high -- making this worthy of your
attention. A low risk of a catastrophic outcome is the very reason we all buy
insurance – life, auto, and home. Not because we wish things to go
wrong in our lives, but because they sometimes do nonetheless.
A Russian Warning
The list of aggressive provocations by NATO that have been received as
belligerent acts by Russia is quite long. It stretches back several years and
continues to grow rapidly, making the chance for an ‘accident’ or unplanned
incident quite high.
I was impressed with a recent piece penned and signed by eight prominent
writers and blogger with Russian heritage. Titled A Russian
Warning, it ran on a wide variety of blogs knowledgeable about the
Russian situation including Dmitry Orlov’s and The Saker’s.
I encourage you to read the whole thing. Right now, if you've got the time. I
can wait.
To cut to the chase, the harsh conclusion of the piece is this: “If
there is going to be a war with Russia, then the United States
will most certainly be destroyed, and most of us will end up
dead.”
Russia is, of course, a major nuclear power with a long history of
surviving being attacked by outsiders. But for some reason, US/NATO military
and diplomatic efforts have all been geared at further encroaching upon
and/or isolating Russia.
They note:
The US leadership has done everything it could to push the situation
to the brink of disaster. First, its anti-Russian policies have convinced the
Russian leadership that making concessions or negotiating with the West is
futile. It has become apparent that the West will always support any
individual, movement or government that is anti-Russian, be it tax-cheating
Russian oligarchs, convicted Ukrainian war criminals, Saudi-supported Wahhabi
terrorists in Chechnya or cathedral-desecrating punks in Moscow.
Now that NATO, in violation of its previous promises, has expanded
right up to the Russian border, with US forces deployed in the Baltic states,
within artillery range of St. Petersburg, Russia’s second-largest city, the
Russians have nowhere left to retreat. They will not attack; nor will they
back down or surrender.
Imagine for a moment that Russia had positioned its military less than 100
miles from New York City and installed armored battalions with artillery. How
would we in the US respond to that provocation? Probably with outrage, anger
and defiance -- and rightly so. So why are we expecting Russia to act any
differently?
The conclusion:
The sole reason why the USA and Russia have found themselves on a
collision course, instead of defusing tensions and cooperating on a wide
range of international problems, is the stubborn refusal by the US leadership
to accept Russia as an equal partner: Washington is dead set on being the
“world leader” and the “indispensable nation,” even as its influence steadily
dwindles in the wake of a string of foreign policy and military disasters
such as Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria, Yemen and the Ukraine.
Continued American global leadership is something that neither Russia,
nor China, nor most of the other countries are willing to accept. This
gradual but apparent loss of power and influence has caused the US leadership
to become hysterical; and it is but a small step from hysterical to suicidal.
America’s political leaders need to be placed under suicide watch.
The summary here is that Russia feels surrounded by an increasingly belligerent
NATO/US military presence. It can find little common ground with diplomats
from NATO generally and the US specifically. If fully backed into a corner,
once it perceives it is out of other options, Russia will defend herself. I’m
not sure how anybody could deny or begrudge her that right.
If the West, meaning the US and Europe, decide to further goad Russia, war
is likely inevitable. (I'm leaning heavily here on the
historically-dependable formula: Time + Shit Happens = Conflict).
Sooner or later, Russia will have to switch from response mode to reaction
mode. I’ve written about that precition here, here and here.
The Provocations – Neocon Central
Here’s a very short and incomplete list of the provocations that have been
undertaken against Russia. Again, just try to imagine what the reaction would
be by the West were the roles reversed:
2014
2015
In return, Russia has been busy fighting its ‘isolation’ by inkling major
energy deals, openly testing its nuclear weapons platforms, and railing
against the double standards of the West:
You get the idea: both sides are settling into a pattern of escalating
responses. The trajectory is alarming.
What's alarming is the above selection of headlines is a miniscule
sampling of the possible ones I could have picked. The evidence is
everywhere.
Now let’s fast forward to 2016 where things are really heating up.
2016
The US and NATO have been putting increasing emphasis on placing more
military hardware and training exercises in the Baltic and Black seas as well
as the Mediterranean ocean. In one incident, Russian jets flew within
yards of a key US naval asset over and over again in a provocation that John
Kerry said the US “would have been justified” in shooting those jets down.
U.S. issues formal protest to Russia over Baltic Sea incident
Apr 14, 2016
(CNN) White House Press Secretary Josh
Earnest says the U.S. Embassy in Moscow has communicated formal concerns to
the Russian government about the incident in the Baltic Sea this week in
which fighter jets flew very close to the USS Donald Cook.
A U.S. official described the Russian maneuver as "strafing
runs" without firing any weapons. The unarmed Russian aircraft swooped
in over the deck in the same flight profile that would have been used if an
attack was underway.
(Source)
Here’s a video of that flyby:
And, no, the US would not have been justified in shooting down those
Russian jets. Kerry is being clearly belligerent with that statement.
A more level response comes to us from a retired Navy commanding officer:
“Well, we’re not at war with Russia," Capt. Rick Hoffman said.
"It would be one thing to be operating and have a threatening attack
profile from someone who might not recognize me — that’s not the case here.”
If you have visual identification of the jet, can see it isn't carrying
weapons, and don't detect any electronic emissions suggesting there was a
missile lock on the ship, there's nothing to be done.
And ultimately, the rules of engagement allow the CO to take defensive
action if they feel they safety of their vessel is in danger, according to U.S.
European Command spokesman Capt. Danny Hernandez told Navy Times. In this
case the CO did not feel threatened, he added.
"You don’t get to kill people just because they’re being
annoying," said Hoffman, who commanded frigate DeWert and cruiser Hue
City.
(Source – Navy Times)
Thankfully there are saner minds in the military, even if the State
Department is itching for a fight.
Which brings us to the most insane head scratcher of them all.
State Department Loses Its Cool
In yesterday’s Wall Street Journal (6/16/2016) came the bizarre revelation
that 51 internal State Department officials signed a document protesting
Obama’s lack of direct military engagement with Assad’s government forces in
Syria:
U.S. State Department Officials Call for Strikes Against Syria’s
Assad
Jun 16, 2016
BEIRUT—Dozens of State Department officials this week protested against
U.S. policy in Syria, signing an internal document that calls for targeted
military strikes against the Damascus government and urging regime change as
the only way to defeat Islamic State.
The “dissent channel cable” was signed by 51 State Department officers
involved with advising on Syria policy in various capacities, according to an
official familiar with the document. The Wall Street Journal reviewed a copy
of the cable, which repeatedly calls for “targeted military strikes” against
the Syrian government in light of the near-collapse of the ceasefire brokered
earlier this year.
(Source)
Now just reflect on that a moment. But as you do, be sure to recall
that Russia is fighting alongside Assad’s forces. In other words, these State
Department officials are asking for military action to be taken against
Syria's allied forces fighting to preserve the current government’s hold on
power.
In other words, there are 51 insane people (a least) in the US State
Department that think attacking Russia directly would be a swell idea. All in
the interest of promoting a foreign policy of regime change that has not
worked out well in the Mideast countries where we've recently tried it. Iraq
and Libya are unmitigated disasters, especially for the citizens left living
with the aftermath.
I would certainly love to know the names of those 52 individuals. I'd bet
good money that the list is heavily stocked with neocons.
Also be sure to recall that Russia moved the s400 antiaircraft missile
system into Syria last year. This battery is widely respected and feared by
pilots due to its enormous reach:
(Source)
So not only are these State Department folks agitating for direct military
engagement with Russian forces by agitating for US airstrikes against Syrian
targets, they are seemingly either unaware of or uncaring about the extreme
risk US pilots would face in trying such a move.
Most likely the US would lose a fair number of planes if such action was
attempted. I suspect, though, that would play to the hands of the neocons at
State. Dead heroes would provide exactly the sort of justification they’d
need to expand the war they’ve been itching for all along.
But just in case a regular shooting war doesn't break out, NATO is busy
laying the groundwork to justify one along other channels.
Expanding the Definition of “War”
Recently, NATO has expanded the definition of "war". Let’s
remember that NATO exists as a collective defense treaty
organization. An attack on one member country is treated an attack on
all. NATO allies are obligated to come to each other’s
defense.
Here’s the language:
Collective defence - Article 5
(Last updated Mar 2016)
The principle of collective defence is at the very heart of NATO’s
founding treaty. It remains a unique and enduring principle that binds its
members together, committing them to protect each other and setting a spirit
of solidarity within the Alliance.
- Collective defence means that an attack against one Ally
is considered as an attack against all Allies.
- The principle of collective defence is enshrined in
Article 5 of the Washington Treaty.
- NATO invoked Article 5 for the first time in its history
after the 9/11 terrorist attacks against the United States.
- NATO has taken collective defence measures on several
occasions, for instance in response to the situation in Syria and in the
wake of the Russia-Ukraine crisis.
- NATO has standing forces on active duty that contribute
to the Alliance’s collective defence efforts on a permanent basis.
(Source)
Now you and I might think that, if one member nation were invaded, that
would meet the definition of “war”. But NATO, clearly not happy with that
limitation, has recently proposed expanding that to include – get this –
cyberwarfare:
NATO adds cyber to operation areas
Jun 14, 2016
BRUSSELS (AP) — NATO agreed Tuesday to make cyber operations part of its
war domain, along with air, sea and land operations, and to beef up the
defense of its computer networks.
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said the decision to formally
consider cyber operations a military domain is not aimed at any one country.
He says the allies need to be able to better defend themselves and respond to
attacks on their computer networks.
The decision has been long in coming, particularly amid rising tensions
with Russia, which has proven its willingness to launch computer-based
attacks against other nations.
Russian hackers have been blamed for a breach into an unclassified
Pentagon computer network and for a breach of NATO's computer network two
years ago.
In 2014, after years of debate, NATO finally agreed that a
cyberattack could rise to the level of a military assault and could trigger
the Article 5 protections, which allow the alliance to go to the
collective defense of another member that has been attacked.
(Source)
Got that? Now a cyberattack could be used as justification to invoke
Article V and bind everyone to engage the enemy in an actual 'boots on the
ground' war.
Now that makes sense on some level. After all if a hostile nation took
down your electrical grid by a cyberattack (which
is entirely possible, by the way), that would be a threat to national
security.
But in this world of electronic cat and mouse, creating a false-flag
cyberattack that seems to originate from a hostile country could be
initiated from anywhere, including the “attacked” country. But the time
all that had been sorted out, the bullets would likely have already been
flying.
Conclusion
OK, that was a lot to read through. Thanks for persisting to this point.
The punchline to it all is: War with Russia is a distinct possibility,
and US and NATO are increasing that risk through escalating provocation.
Should a war break out, it could be along a variety of dimensions which
are outlined in Part II below.
For now, it should be (hopefully) sufficient for you to take the threat
seriously and to make whatever provisions seem prudent to you. To my European
readers, such preparations seem even more necessary because you will be close
to the front lines of any direct, conventional hostilities that break out.
In Part 2: How To Prepare For War, we explain how conflict
can take many forms: trade wars, energy wars, financial wars, cyberwar,
shooting wars, and nuclear war. We lay out in great detail the steps we, as
individuals, can do to prepare for each.
And fortunately, this preparation comes with an upside: as many of these
precautions will be life-enhancing steps even if -- hopefully, if --
tensions de-escalate from here.
Click here to read Part 2 of this report (free
executive summary, enrollment required for full access)
