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In the wake of the terrorist activity in Paris that killed close to 150
people in eight separate attacks, the Investigation Widens to Germany and Belgium.
Three Key Developments
● Belgium charges two men in connection with the Paris attacks
● Germany arrests five people in a town close to the Belgian border
● France has authorized the distribution of an antidote for nerve gas
The investigation into last week’s deadly attacks in Paris
widened on Tuesday, as Belgium charged two men with terror offenses and
Germany arrested five people over the Isis plot.
The arrests in Germany and reports the Belgian police is investigating
whether the men charged in Belgium provided the bombs used in the suicide
attacks indicate that the conspiracy may have been wider than previously
thought — and that more than one attacker may still be on the loose.
It also emerged that France has authorized the distribution of an antidote
for nerve gas — a further sign of a sign of concern about the risk of more
Isis attacks.
Meanwhile, evidence has grown that accomplices aided Salah Abdeslam, the
26-year-old French national at the heart of an international manhunt
following the killings, to flee France after the attacks.
Prosecutors in Belgium on Tuesday charged two Belgian men — Hamza Attou and
Mohammed Amri — with participation in a terrorist enterprise in connection
with the Paris attacks. Belgian media reported that both men, who were
arrested in a raid in the rundown Brussels district of Molenbeek on Saturday,
are suspected of helping to assemble explosives for suicide vests used in the
attacks.
French authorities said Mr Abdeslam had booked rooms in a hotel in the
Alfortville suburb of Paris to serve as a safe house for the group ahead of
the attacks, together with a flat in the Bobigny area.
When Isis claimed responsibility for the assaults, it mentioned a team of
eight jihadis. But there are indications the actual number may be higher.
German police said they had detained five suspects in Alsdorf, a small town
near the border with Belgium and the Netherlands, in an operation the DPA
news agency said was linked to the Paris attack.
At least nine people are currently being held by French authorities, which
has also stepped up air strikes against Isis in Syria.
Could the Attacks Have
Been Prevented?
The Financial Times asks Could Attacks Have Been Prevented?
While not every terrorist plot can be thwarted, authorities misses a huge
number of warning signs. Coupled with inane acceptance of Syrian refugees,
the EU virtually invited terrorist activity.
Nine Warning Signs, Security Issues Missed or Ignored
- Mastermind Abdelhamid Abaaoud: French authorities
have named Abdelhamid Abaaoud, a Belgian of Moroccan origin, as the
potential “mastermind” behind the attacks. Mr Abaaoud, 27, fought with
Isis in 2013 in Syria, where he took part in atrocities before returning
to Belgium in 2014. He had been in contact with Mehdi Nemmouche, a
Franco-Algerian jihadi who shot four people dead at the Brussels Jewish
museum in May that year.
- High Risk Profiles: Five of the eight Paris
suspects had fought for Isis in Syria. Questions will be asked about why
they were not monitored closely given the known risks that such a
profile entails. (Current academic research suggests at least one in
five returnees will attempt an act of political violence.) Most of the
plotters had long been known to intelligence agencies as figures in
European Islamist circles.
- Associations: Suicide bomber Omar Ismael
Mostefai, 29, had a French police “S file” indicating his status as a
potentially dangerous radical since 2010. The sheer number of such
peripheral figures that European counterterror officials must track is
daunting, but the Paris plot required eight of them to be in regular
communication and to have trained together. Even if their profiles did
not trigger intensive surveillance individually, their regular
association should have done. Many will ask about the gaps in the system
that prevented that.
- Rapid Radicalization: Often the speed of the
shift in an individual’s religious beliefs is an indication of its
danger. At least two of those involved in the Paris plot changed their
behaviour and lifestyle significantly in the months that preceded the
attack. The Abdeslam brothers, Ibrahim and Salah, were drinkers and
gamblers until a year ago, when they both suddenly stopped. Bilal
Hadfi, the “baby-faced jihadi”, also turned to hardline political Islam
in the last year. In July, he wrote on his public Facebook account,
which is littered with pictures of automatic weapons: “Hit the pigs in
their communities so they no longer feel safe even in their dreams.”
He had already traveled and returned from Syria. His social media output
alone should have flagged him to Belgian authorities.
- Molenbeek Warning Signs: The Brussels district
has become notorious as a hub of jihadism in the heart of Europe. It has
been linked to four terror attacks that were not picked up by
intelligence agencies in the past 18 months alone. Nemmouche, who took
part in the Brussels shootings of May 2014, and Amedy Coulibaly, the
third attacker in the Charlie Hebdo attacks in January, acquired their
weapons in Molenbeek. Ayoub el-Khazzani, 26, the Moroccan-born Spaniard
who came within a whisker of committing mass murder aboard a train in
August this year, was a regular worshipper at an unofficial, radical
mosque in the district.
- Turkish Connection: According to Turkish
government officials, Ankara warned France three times about the risks
posed by the Bataclan bomber Mostefai, who was known to French
authorities as a radical. In October 2014, the Turks said he was a
“terror suspect” after linking him to Isis attack planning cells in
Syria. In December last year they sent another warning about him to the
French. In June this year they reiterated it. The French did not request
additional details from the Turks until after the attack.
- Passport Issues: The identity of the third Stade de
France suicide bomber remains a mystery. A Syrian passport in the name
of Ahmad al Mohammad that was found near his remains is almost certainly
a fake. Most likely he was known to authorities as a foreign fighter
with Isis in Syria and had used the false documentation to sneak back
into France. Sami Amimour, the gunman at the Bataclan, was a wanted
suspect in France. He had been under judicial supervision since 2012
after he tried to travel to Yemen to fight with al-Qaeda. An
international arrest warrant was issued in 2013 after he absconded and
went to fight for Isis in Syria. Somehow, however, Amimour returned to
Paris — according to friends several weeks ago — without raising
concerns among security officials.
- German Arms Cache: On November 5, a week before
the attack, a 51-year-old Montenegrin man was stopped in his car in a
routine check by police in Bavaria. His vehicle was laden with grenades,
automatic weapons, dynamite and ammunition. His GPS was set for an
address in Paris. German and French authorities are investigating a
potential link to the Paris cell, but regardless of what they can
establish, the discovery of such a large consignment and information
about the likely destination should have been a cause for heightened
concern.
- Sourcing Explosives: Making large quantities of
explosives is not an easy task. It is yet to be determined exactly what
the attackers used to manufacture the suicide belts they used at the
Bataclan and Stade de France. However, it is likely that they contained
TATP, a highly unstable peroxide-based explosive used in the second,
abortive London Tube bombing attempt in 2005, or a nitrogen-based
compound. In some countries there are safeguards in place that stop
sufficient quantities of key chemicals being sold at any one time, or
that require shops to report purchases to security authorities. Where
the attackers sourced their chemicals and why the sales were not flagged
up will be a key question for authorities to answer.
Mish Questions
Regarding Nine Failures
- Mastermind Abdelhamid Abaaoud: Why wasn't Abaaoud
arrested in 2014 when he returned to Belgium? Why isn't going to Syria
and taking part in ISIS atrocities a war crime in and of itself?
- High Risk Profiles: Why wasn't a group of known
radicals monitored more closely?
- Associations: Same question as above: Why wasn't
a group of known radicals monitored more closely?
- Rapid Radicalization: Why isn't inciting
terrorism a crime in and of itself? Is it OK to post pictures of
automatic weapons on Facebook with the message “Hit the pigs in their
communities so they no longer feel safe even in their dreams”?
- Molenbeek Warning Signs: What the hell are
intelligence agencies doing if they miss four terrorist attacks all
hatched in the same district?
- Turkish Connection: What possible excuse can
there be to not heed direct warnings regarding a known terrorist? This
person should not have been allowed in the EU at all.
- Passport Issues: Why cannot the EU detect fake
passports? Why is the EU letting in economic refugees in the first place?
ZeroHedge commented on the "the idiocy of anyone actually
believing a suicide bomber would have brought their actual passport to
what they knew would be their last act on earth". For details,
please see ISIS Claims "Only Beginning of Storm"; Poland
Backs Out of Refugee Agreement. I suggest ZH blew it and the fake
passport was left on purpose, precisely to show terrorists entered the
EU on such passports. Indeed, Fingerprints Confirm this Terrorist Entered via Greece
in October, likely on a fake passport. The pictures match.
- German Arms Cache: A vehicle bound for France,
from Germany, laden with grenades, automatic weapons, dynamite and
ammunition, was not properly followed up on. Why?
- Sourcing Explosives: The munitions have not been
traced back to the source so it is not yet known if there is a failure
to report. But why aren't safeguards the same throughout the EU?
This was an all-around pathetic effort in the face of actual ISIS threats to
carry out such attacks.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
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