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The CPI Report: Rally Time For Gold

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Published : September 13th, 2022
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Category : Gold and Silver

Oil is the world’s biggest medium-term driver of inflation.  If Western governments waved huge “Drill, baby drill!” banners today, the millions of barrels of oil that they have sanctioned off the market would take years to replace with freshly drilled supply.

Rather than piping oil from staunch ally Canada, the US government has aggressively pumped oil out of its strategic reserve.

Has the market priced in the fact that the government must replenish these reserves?  Sadly, no.

Western governments are promoting green energy transition, which is a good thing, but they are trying to make a 30 year transition into a 3 year deal that features the “bonus” of ruining Ukraine and much of Europe.

The bottom line is this: The “Gmen” of the West look like Vincent Price movie characters promoting macabre war-oriented pipedreams instead of magnificently engineered pipelines.

The daily oil chart.  US citizens grumbled as oil roared to $130 but they never experienced the amount of “fuelflation pain” that European citizens did.

That could change quite dramatically if oil begins a new leg higher.  How could that happen and what are the ramifications for citizens of the world if it does?

Well, the US elections in November could see the Democrats retain their control and stop the strategic reserves drain because they would have more time get US citizens accustomed to higher prices.

The Republicans could win and try to impeach war enthusiast “Jackboot Joe” Biden… but if the Republicans win, they likely continue the sanctions on Russia.  Waving “Drill, baby drill” banners in December won’t stop thousands of Euro zone citizens from potentially freezing to death and…

Gold tends to have violent rallies against US fiat when major new themes of horror appear.

On that note, the SGOL gold ETF chart. Technically, gold is in a superb position; there’s a Stochastics buy signal in the oversold zone, the commercial traders have added COMEX longs, and a Friday close over the red dotted downtrend line should ignite a powerful rally.

Silver?  This mighty metal had an awesome rally yesterday and now there is a bullish flag-like pattern in play.

The latest COT report is incredibly positive.  Commercial traders now net long what gold bugs view as the world’s second greatest metal, and silver bugs view as… number one!

What about the miners?  The hourly GDXU triple-leveraged ETF chart.  It’s surged about 30% in a week!

The CPI inflation report will be released today and I issued a sell GDXU alert yesterday to my swing trade newsletter subscribers.  Short-term leveraged trading can be helpful from an emotional standpoint as well as financial, if the investor keeps the “fun trades” in a separate account from the bigger core positions.

My swing trade newsletter offers great value at $269/3mths.  Given the wild market action and the solid tactics we use with items like GDXU, OILU, SQQQ, etc, I have a $249/4mths special offer until Friday this week.  Click this link or send me an email if you want the offer, and I’ll get you onboard! Thank-you.

For unleveraged positions, which should form the bulk of the portfolios of most gold bugs, it’s too early to sell… much, much too early!

I recently suggested investors could follow me and move their ETF focus from XME to GOAU, GDX, GDXJ, and SIL, and yesterday showcased the potential wisdom of that play.

XME contains industrial metal stocks, and it was an outperformer on gold price rallies, as central banks began hiking.

In the next phase of the 2021-2025 war cycle, Euro zone hunger, lack of heating, and infighting over sanctions are likely to be key themes, as is mayhem following the US election.

As the situation deteriorates, the stock market rally could end while the gold/silver rally intensifies.

The great-looking GDX chart. While volatility around the CPI and PPI reports is expected and normal, once that smoke clears GDX should stage its biggest rally of the year.

The GOAU chart.  The volume bars are stellar, there’s a Stochastics buy signal, and the key 5,15 moving averages are looking good.

The euro vs dollar chart.  Investors appear to be overly focused on the Euro zone’s GDP meltdown, and under focused on the ECB.  In the coming months, the Fed is likely to keep hiking (destroying the stock market) but at a lesser pace, while the ECB becomes relatively more aggressive.  Gold, silver, and oil are on the move.  The euro is next, and that flashes an “All systems go!” signal for the miners!

Thanks!    

Cheers

St

Stewart Thomson 

Graceland Updates

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Stewart Thomson is no longer an investment advisor. The information provided by Stewart and Graceland Updates is for general information purposes only. Before taking any action on any investment, it is imperative that you consult with multiple properly licensed, experienced and qualified investment advisors and get numerous opinions before taking any action. Your minimum risk on any investment in the world is: 100% loss of all your money. You may be taking or preparing to take leveraged positions in investments and not know it, exposing yourself to unlimited risks. This is highly concerning if you are an investor in any derivatives products. There is an approx $700 trillion OTC Derivatives Iceberg with a tiny portion written off officially. The bottom line:  

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Stewart Thomson is a retired Merrill Lynch broker. Stewart writes the Graceland Updates daily between 4am-7am. They are sent out around 8am-9am. The newsletter is attractively priced and the format is a unique numbered point form, giving clarity of each point and saving valuable reading time.
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