The Crazy Train to Bull Eternity

IMG Auteur
Published : January 10th, 2020
725 words - Reading time : 1 - 2 minutes
( 0 vote, 0/5 )
Print article
  Article Comments Comment this article Rating All Articles  
[titre article pour referencement]
0
Send
0
comment
Our Newsletter...
Category : Gold and Silver

 - Gary Tanashian

Once again I have to disclaim that at the moment (and for quite some time now) I hold not one single short position, in anything. I am only long US and global stocks. But also managing cash and portfolio balance as usual while feeling as though I’m playing a game of Musical Chairs while the music still plays (nothing nearly as good as Keith’s style, which has always resonated with me beyond most others).

I have to disclaim the bull positioning because book talkers tend to talk their book. My book is only long insofar as I have equity positions because in a manic up phase I have little interest in eroding the situation with short hedging. Besides, gold stocks are doing that balancing job right now and that balancing act has been working well since June.

Anyway, here is a tweet from a well followed commentator that is framed so logically and paints the 2008 crash as merely a blip that you or I could do standing on our heads.

This is annual chart (each bar = a year)

The chart goes back 75 yrs; a long enough period which included many crises, panics + wars - yet how many red bars do you see?

Nobody knows when the next red bar will show up; but in the grand scheme of things, does it matter?

24hGold - The Crazy Train to B...
92 people are talking about this

Equities… just stay in and prosper! No problem in real time because the US stock marketalwayscomes back…ALWAYS. This is the kind of stuff that appears near tops; like stuff that uses ultra long-term yearly charts in log scale to smooth out the problems.

So the next time this happens, try to forget that it was caused by epic policy distortions within the system the likes of which have been amped up exponentially since and just remember it’s actually a smooth ride assuming the next thing is like the last thing and you live long enough to reap the benefits.

24hGold - The Crazy Train to B...

Allow theMacro Touristto expand upon the theme…

He notes that CNBC anchor Becky Quick got into something of a competition with her wealth manager guest, who is only 80% exposed to stocks. Becky’s all-in at 100%!

Greedy or Fearful?

However, I would like to point out that Becky was not bragging about this allocation at any time during the past decade. No, she has chosen December 2019 with the S&P 500 up more than 360% since the bottom to let us know about her over-allocation.

Herein lies my point. Just like this summer when bonds had already ripped 13 handles higher, market participants usually express this sort of arrogance at points when they feel confident. Extremely confident.

What do I take from this? It’s not the time to be reaching for exposure. I don’t need to know anything else except that CNBC anchors are competing with their guests about the size of their stock allocations.

And of course yesterdaythere was the presidentwith his dangerous ‘409 K’ tweet taunting casino patrons as if merely performing in line with the S&P 500 (as opposed to near doubling its performance) was a failure.

This is just one of several charts, graphs and indicators we use each week inNFTRHto gauge the sentiment situation (and folks, thisisa sentiment event). NAAIM had pulled back their enthusiasm into year end and using this and other sentiment indicators that had twitched a bit bearish, we had a short-term bullish signal for the Santa seasonal, which we’ve allowed to extend into Q1 2020 (aided most recently by the US-Iran war drums).

24hGold - The Crazy Train to B...

And now? It’s as expected. Manic upside with investment managers all aboard, newsletters all aboard, CNBC anchors all aboard and all those discount brokerages that opened during the real sentiment blow off in January 2018… all aboard. All aboard the Crazy Train…

I’ve listened to preachers, I’ve listened to fools
I’ve watched all the dropouts who make their own rules
One person conditioned to rule and control
The media sells it and you live the role –Ozzy

These sentiment knee-jerks have refreshed the market on very short-term bases. It’s dangerous but as yet ongoing… and barreling down the tracks.

Gary Tanashian

Subscribe toNFTRH Premium(monthly at USD $35.00or a discountedyearly at USD $365.00) for an in-depth weeklymarket report, interim marketupdatesandNFTRH+chart and trade setup ideas.


|
<< Previous article
Rate : Average note :0 (0 vote)
>> Next article
Comment this article
>Follow all commentairies
You must be logged in to comment an article8000 characters max.
Log in or Sign up
Latest comment posted for this article
Be the first to comment
Add your comment
Top articles
Latest Comments
PREPPING FOR A NUCLEAR WAR: 10 FOODS TO GROW TO HELP REDUCE RADIATI...
25 Jantsg
Why stay in an area that is vulnerable to WW3, go where it would be a waste of time for an enemy to drop a Nuclear weapon. Some small Central or S...
The Anti-Gold Gospel According to Smith
21 JanDavid J.
I have read 4 of your articles and agree with you. I can't believe that there is not one comment on most of your articles. People are asleep or hav...
Storing and Hiding Your Gold at Home
19 JanS W.
What is Jeff's address? I will be around soon to rifle his joint.
The Genius of JPMorgan
19 JanS W.
Ted has been, rightly I guess, slamming JPM for ages. Surely he has made lots of dollars shorting silver as per JPM and raking in the $$$$$$
This is How You Can Dodge Facial Recognition Software
18 JanS W.1
I am thinking that poor old Mac is the most paranoid person on the planet. He seriously needs to start taking some meds. Any way i wish h...
The Genius of JPMorgan
17 JanArtboard
I fail to see why the Nations that are openly acquiring Gold reserves should not put equal amounts into Silver. Anyone with intellect can see that...
PREPPING FOR A NUCLEAR WAR: 10 FOODS TO GROW TO HELP REDUCE RADIATI...
16 JanS W.
Just about the greatest load of crap i have ever read. IMO why not move now to an area where there is very little likelihood of being any where...
Sedition in Real Time
14 JanGypsy
Good Grief James ! You have the complete Cast of Characters AND a map of The Maze. I'm impressed no end. I'm not surprised that you've shown us ...
Most commented articlesFavoritesMore...
World PM Newsflow
ALL
GOLD
SILVER
PGM & DIAMONDS
OIL & GAS
OTHER METALS