The Euro Is Down. But Is It Really Out?

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Published : April 25th, 2019
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Category : Opinions and Analysis

We've seen quite decent currency moves in recent days. And the market ain't exactly sleepy today, either. Let's put these moves into the picture. The implications lead us to make serious decisions. Is there a more pleasant sound than ringing a cashier's bell? Ringing YOUR cashier's bell, that is. Just see what we've exactly decided to do right now.

EUR/USD - Resisting At Support?

On Thursday, we wrote these words about the profitable EUR/USD move lower:

(...) If this is the case, a test of the red support line (the lower border of the long-term red declining trend channel) would follow

The situation developed in line with the above and EUR/USD slipped below the declining red channel during yesterday's session. The bulls have brought the rate back from the abyss before the close, however. The earlier breakdown has thus been invalidated.

Earlier today, currency bears returned to the trading floor. The exchange rate moved below the red line once again, making our short positions even more profitable.

Let's take now into account the current position of the daily indicators, the proximity to the early-April and March lows and the long-term green support line seen on the weekly chart (below). We think it prudent to close a reasonably high part of our short positions and take profits off the table (as a reminder, we opened them when EUR/USD was trading at around 1.1295). This is justified from the risk/reward perspective. We leave the remainder of our short positions in the market with a new take-profit and stop-loss order. Full details are reserved for our subscribers.

USD/CHF - On the Verge of Declining?

The weekly chart shows that USD/CHF has extended gains. It has climbed not only above the 88.6% Fibonacci retracement, but also above the red rising resistance line based on the previous peaks.

This improvement was quite temporary and the exchange rate slipped back below both resistances. The earlier breakouts were thus invalidated. In the process, the pair also invalidated the breakout above the 141.4% Fibonacci extension as seen on the daily chart below.

Additionally, the Stochastic Oscillator just flashed a sell signal, while the RSI and the CCI are very close to doing the same. Taking all the above into account, it seems likely that USD/CHF will extend losses from here. The bears will probably test the previously-broken upper border of the purple rising trend channel in the very near future.

AUD/USD - Where Next After Breakout Invalidation?

Let's start with the weekly perspective. The first thing that catches the eye is an invalidation of the earlier breakout above the upper border of the red declining trend channel.

This is a bearish development. The currency bears pushed AUD/USD sharply lower and took the pair to the green support zone again. Additionally, the Stochastic Oscillator generated a sell signal, increasing the probability of further deterioration in the coming week(s).

Let's see how all these reflect in the daily chart now.

The situation for the bulls doesn't seem that hopeless on the daily chart.

The CCI and the Stochastic Oscillator moved to their oversold areas, which in combination with the proximity to the green support zone could translate into a rebound in the following days.

Taking the above into account, we think that closing a reasonably high part of our short positions and taking profits off the table (as a reminder, we opened them when AUD/USD was trading at around 0.7153) is justified from the risk/reward perspective. We leave the remainder of our short positions in the market with a new take-profit and stop-loss order. Full details are reserved for our subscribers.

If you enjoyed the above analysis and would like to receive free follow-ups, we encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter - it's free and if you don't like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you'll also get 7 days of free access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up now!

Thank you.

Nadia Simmons
Forex & Oil Trading Strategist
Sunshine Profits - Effective Investments through Diligence and Care

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Przemyslaw Radomski is the founder, owner and the main editor of www.SunshineProfits.com. Being passionately curious about the market’s behavior he uses his statistical and financial background to question the common views and profit on the misconceptions. “Don’t fight the emotionality on the market – take advantage of it!” is one of his favorite mottos. His time is divided mainly to analyzing various markets with emphasis on the precious metals, managing his own portfolio, writing commentaries, essays and developing financial software. Most of the time he’s got left is spent on reading everything he can about the markets, psychology, philosophy and statistics. Mr. Radomski has started investigating the markets for his private use well before starting his professional career. He used to work as an informatics consultant, but this time-consuming profession left him little time for his true passion – the interdisciplinary market analysis. Establishing www.SunshineProfits.com gave him the opportunity to put his thoughts, ideas, and experience into form available to other investors.
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