There's a little progress this week in the field of gold market analysis, for in his latest commentary, headlined "Motive, Means, and Opportunity, But No Crime" --
http://tsi-blog.com/2017/10/motive-means-and-...y-but-no-crime/
-- The Speculative Investor's Steve Saville has acknowledged that governments and central banks have an interest in knocking the gold price down and the ability to do it.
But Saville insists that there is no evidence that they have been doing it, no evidence of any crime, and he is sure that no crime has been committed because the gold price is following his predictive model.
Of course if governments and central banks agreed with Saville's model, they would not be constantly intervening surreptitiously in the gold market just for fun. They do it for policy purposes, as the Reserve Bank of Australia acknowledged until GATA started calling attention to it:
"Foreign currency reserve assets and gold," the Reserve Bank of Australia said in its annual report in 2003, "are held primarily to support intervention in the foreign exchange market."
See: target="_blank" http://www.gata.org/files/ReserveBankOfAus...lReport2003.pdf
Consumed by his technical analysis, Saville dares not address any of the documentation of this intervention, like the documentation available in the bowels of reports from the Bank for International Settlements.
For the documents are indisputable.
Here on its internet site the BIS acknowledges its operations as the gold and gold derivatives broker for central banks:
target="_blank"
http://www.bis.org/banking/finserv.htm
The relevant section is isolated in PDF format here:
target="_blank"
http://www.gata.org/files/BISForex&...oldServices.pdf
Here on Page 191 of its 2017 annual report the BIS discloses its return to the gold swap business in the preceding 12 months, having moved suddenly from zero tonnage in swaps to 438 tonnes:< target="_blank"/p>
http://www.bis.org/publ/arpdf/ar2017e.pdf
The relevant page is isolated in PDF format here:< target="_blank"/p>
http://www.gata.org/files/BISGold&am...ldLoans2017.pdf
In this page from a presentation made by the BIS to prospective central bank members at a meeting at BIS headquarters in Basle, Switzerland, in June 2008, the bank actually advertises that its services include secret interventions in the gold marke target="_blank"t:
http://www.gata.org/files/BISAdve...rventions_0.pdf
What does Saville suppose is the purpose of these interventions if not to affect gold's price, especially amid all the records in government archives found by GATA and its friends affirming the objective of Western central banks to remove gold from the international financial system?
Does any gold investor who lived through the price smash of April 2013 really feel that the monetary metal resolutely follows Saville's idea of its "fundamentals"?
The crime that Saville doesn't see is far bigger than any particular price movement that might not accord with his model. The crime is the surreptitious intervention itself, regardless of whether it fully achieves its objectives. Interventions by governments in supposedly free markets should be open and acknowledged so that governments can be held accountable and investors are not deceived.
Nobody's technical analysis of markets can defend against that.
