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Deflation fears
are once again becoming
the dominant emotion in the minds
of traders, with banking difficulties on both sides of the Atlantic and continuing
weakness in precious metals and commodities. News that the China Investment
Corporation – China’s biggest sovereign wealth fund – no longer wants to buy European sovereign debt has only added to the sense of unease.
The euro continued losing ground against the dollar yesterday,
and though it has rallied this morning, looks like it could test the $1.29 mark sooner rather than later. Corn, copper and Brent crude also sustained further losses, with news of a boost in OPEC production adding
to the downward pressure on oil
prices.
At King World News, Dan Norcini highlights the importance of the 10-Year Treasury Note as a bellwether asset as far as inflation/deflation
expectations are concerned. Dan warns
that a weekly close below a 1.8% yield on this instrument could be signalling that a “deflationary
tsunami” is about to engulf
the global economy. Coupled
with Marc Faber’s
warning on Bloomberg that a 1987-style
stock market crash could occur soon in the event of no further stimulus from the Federal Reserve, and it seems like
heading to the storm shelter may not be a bad idea.
As Faber points out, the new
quantitative easing from
the Fed would need to be “massive” in order
to restore confidence. This is the nature of money
printing: the more you do it,
the bigger the doses have to get
in order to achieve the same simulative
“high”. Similar to drinkers
who get used to two beers
a night, so start drinking three-a-night instead.
What will this mean for precious metals? In the short-term, further price declines could occur alongside
falls in the euro, stocks, and industrial
commodities, though there’ll be strong buying support for gold around $1,550. But given all that governments stand to lose from a deflation
tsunami, it’s almost
inconceivable to imagine that
if faced with this situation, central banks will not resort to extraordinary efforts to reflate
the system. Gold and silver will
confound their sceptics.
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