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The Never Ending Punch Bowl

IMG Auteur
Published : March 31st, 2017
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Category : Opinions and Analysis

Again, I’m on vacation, so I’m going to be as brief as possible.  Which shouldn’t be too difficult, given how obviously desperate the powers that be are, to prevent “Economic Mother Nature’s” inevitable, irreversible victory as history’s largest, most destructive fiat Ponzi scheme implodes.  Not to mention, Precious Metals’ equally inevitable, and spectacularly decisive victory in their “200 week moving average war” with the Cartel; currently, at roughly $1,252/oz for gold, and $18.30/oz for silver.

Following yesterday’s ‘PiMBEEB-a-looza”of violently Precious Metal bullish headlines, gold again closed right on its 200 week moving average; when again the Cartel went to work suppressing it with the “8:00 PM algo”; followed by anotherCartel Herald” at “2:15 AM”; another COMEX-opening slam – this time, following a comically meaningless 4Q GDP revision (which in the interest of brevity, I’m not going to systematically take apart here); and of course, when silver dared to break the Cartel’s grip by surging toward its own 200 DMA, a prototypical “12:00 cap of last resort” cap and attack. I mean, just how much more blatant can it get?

As for today’s headlines, they started with the second ECB governor in two days re-iterating that the soon-to-be-destroyed hyper-inflators of Europe will not be ending their historic NIRP and QE programs anytime soon; followed by news that the Trump Administration is preparing to “penalize currency manipulators” – clearly, in an attempt to “win” the now thermo-nuclear final currency war.

Throw in the laughably oxymoronically named “Congressional Budget Office” forecasting this horrific debt and deficit scenario; a massive earnings guidance miss by bellwether “nouveau” retailer Lululemon; and the EU’s highest court upholding Russian sanctions – dating all the way back to the alleged Crimean “invasion”; a plunging South African Rand – as its Finance Minister was unexpectedly fired; and all-out political war between Trump and the “Freedom Caucus” Republicans; and the reasons for PMs to once-and-for-all take out their 200 WMA’s to the upside couldn’t have been stronger, or broader.  And yet, the powers that be were able to pull one more “reflation” trade day out of their hats – which is supremely ironic, given how no assets should benefit more from “reflation” than gold and silver.

That said, all bad things always come to an end – in this case, no matter how much money printing, market manipulation, and propaganda are utilized to prop them up.  Which is why it was equally ironic that, on the same day that NYSE margin debt hit an all-time high; whilst corporate earnings quality hit an all-time low; none other than former Goldman Sachs stooge; and current New York Fed President Bill Dudley, “re-assured” investors “worried” about potential rate hikes by saying “I don’t think we are removing the punch bowl yet.  (Instead), we’re just adding a bit more fruit juice.”  In other words, “QE to Infinity” is here to stay; as it must, given America’s accelerating economic and debt implosion – no matter what form, overt or covert, is deemed “necessary” at any given data- and/or market-dependent moment.

In other words, fear not, my friends – as higher Precious Metal prices are “baked into the cake” – with no chance of being “unbaked” as long as history’s largest, most destructive Ponzi scheme continues.  Which of course it must – until, like thethousands before it, it implodes under its own, elephantine weight.

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Andrew Hoffman was a buy-side and sell-side analyst in the United States (including six years as an II-ranked oilfield service analyst at Salomon Smith Barney), but since 2002 his focus has been entirely in the metals markets, principally gold and silver. He recently worked as a consultant to junior mining companies, head of Corporate Development, and VP of Investor Relations for different mining ventures, and is now the Director of Marketing for Miles Franklin, a U.S.-based bullion dealer.
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