The Primary Trend

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Published : February 13th, 2013
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Category : Market Analysis


When I commenced my “TEN YEARS OF HEAVEN AND HELL” in May 2002 (soon to be eleven), my first“shadow world” mentor was Richard Russell; a shrewd, hard-edged New Yorker that moved to San Diego decades ago.  It was he – and shortly thereafter, Jim Sinclair – that taught me the “ABCs” of currency debasement.  I bought in 100%, and have not altered my fully invested PM position since (except, of course, swapping my 100% mining shares position for 100% PHYSICAL bullion).   As it turned out, he was DEAD ON; and thankfully, I have not only PROTECTED my assets, but utilized such knowledge to create a new career for myself…


Of all the things I’ve learned, perhaps the TWO MOST IMPORTANT CONCEPTS emanated from Richard Russell; in what feels like a lifetime ago.  I mean, back then, I was an Energy analyst living in Park Slope, Brooklyn; while today, I am married, living in Colorado, and marketing Precious Metals.

Around that time, Russell coined the term “INFLATE OR DIE”; which, translated to 2013, equates to “QE TO INFINITY.”  In other words, the understanding governments MUST continue to PRINT MONEY – as fiat currency regimes, by definition, are PONZI SCHEMES – has been the overarching theme of my investment outlook; today, more so than EVER…


Secondly, he coined the term “PRIMARY TREND” to describe indomitable, inexorable market forces that CANNOT be stopped until they fully “express themselves.”  In this case, he was referring to the upcoming dollar collapse and PM explosion; no matter how hard the government or its henchman Central banks attempted to prevent it.  To avoid immediate economic implosion, they must “INFLATE OR DIE”; and thus, the “PRIMARY TREND” of collapsing currencies and rising PM prices must continue…



I’ve learned quite a bit since then; such as that the “dollar index” is not the best proxy for “currencies” because of its heavy Euro weighting; or that “DOLLAR-PRICED GOLD” is not the only proxy for gold – given it’s priced in ALL currencies.

However, the BIG PICTURE remains the “PRIMARY TREND” of fiat currency collapse and REAL MONEY appreciation; and with each passing day, the odds of “full expression” of these trends dramatically increase.  Once you understand this “HOLY GRAIL OF THE FINANCIAL WORLD,” you’ll realize how easy it is to prepare for the inevitable END GAME.



Read the Friday Afternoon Wrap-Up for 2/8/2013 and the Monday Morning Commentary for 2/11/2013


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Andrew Hoffman was a buy-side and sell-side analyst in the United States (including six years as an II-ranked oilfield service analyst at Salomon Smith Barney), but since 2002 his focus has been entirely in the metals markets, principally gold and silver. He recently worked as a consultant to junior mining companies, head of Corporate Development, and VP of Investor Relations for different mining ventures, and is now the Director of Marketing for Miles Franklin, a U.S.-based bullion dealer.
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