Ah yes, the Millennials.
If we could just get consumers to borrow more so that they spend money
they don’t have on things they don’t need in order to boost GDP and corporate
profits, all would be fine. That’s the current meme among economists.
Since 68.5% of US GDP is related to personal consumption expenditures,
boosting consumer spending is seen as crucial. Since wages at the lower 75%
are crummy and have not been rising enough to keep up with inflation, the
only other way to prod consumers into spending more is to bamboozle them into
borrowing more and blowing this moolah instantly.
Cutting interest rates to zero was supposed to have helped that noble
process (though consumers see those zero-rates inexplicably only on their
savings and not on their debts). So that process of growing GDP by loading up
consumers with debt, which worked for decades, has stalled:
Clearly, this strategy has bumped into some limits. And what is left over
is debt.
A lot of debt, for a lot of people: 61% of Americans say they carry at
least some debt, according to a new report by Gallup
that shows to just what extent carrying debt impacts consumer behavior and
drags down consumer spending. As Gallup put it, “not buying things is bad for
the economy.” But that’s exactly what a large portion of debt-carrying
consumers are forced to do.
Consumer behavior is even more strongly impacted by the scourge of the American
economy, “not having enough money to live comfortably,” as the survey found,
which surprises no one. But consumers that carry debt – even people “who have
enough money to live comfortably” – play a large role in the current economic
quagmire.
These folks are “significantly more likely” to engage in a variety of cost
cutting actions than those who’re debt-free. The most important
cost-cutting actions?
- 46% put off a major purchase, such as major appliances,
a vacation, or some home improvements.
- 31% put off buying a car.
- 20% sold off some of their possessions to make ends
meet.
- 63% have engaged in a least one of the 10 cost-cutting
behaviors in the survey.
So who are these cost cutters? Millennials and Gen-Xers, according to
Gallup (Part
2 of the report). The survey asked whether they have engaged in 10
debt-related behaviors. Here are the top two by generation:
- Put off a major purchase (other than a car):
Millennials 48%, Gen-Xers 51%, Baby Boomers 36%.
- Put off buying a car: Millennials 39 %, Gen Xers 35 %,
Baby Boomers 21 %.
But GDP must be pumped up. So even the 35% of Americans who say they “do
not have enough money to live comfortably” are trying to fill in the income
holes with debt. As a group, they carry 36% higher credit card balances – one
of the most expensive forms of debt – than those who say they have enough
money to live comfortably. Gallup in a separate report
(emphasis added):
The difference is particularly acute among millennials, where those who
say that they don’t have enough money to live comfortably carry three
times more credit card debt than those who say they do have enough
money.
They also carry more auto loan debt and personal loan debt. In short:
Millennials are the only generation where those who say that they don’t
have enough money to live comfortably carry 8% more total consumer debt than
those who say they do have enough money.
Having come of age in the era of the Fed’s zero-interest-rate schemes,
these out-of-luck millennials are supplementing their income by borrowing
more than their out-of-luck peers of any other generation, and in the most
expensive manner.
But running up credit card balances or taking out personal loans to buy
consumer items are acts that borrow from the future in order to consume in
the present. That debt will have to be serviced in the future, with money
that otherwise would be spent on consumption. And that “future” is now.
Because millennials are young and at the beginning of their careers and
earning power, they are mortgaging more than the future by carrying debt:
They are also mortgaging the present.
Millennials are putting off getting married, having children, furthering
their education, and establishing their independence (by moving in with
relatives) more than any other generation. This problem compounds if they
have the added burden of student loan debt. Millennials’ total consumer debt
load is $29,000 — but if that balance includes student loans, the total rises
to over $40,000.
Consumer debt is a double-edged sword. On the one hand, it fuels the
economy by giving consumers added purchasing power. On the other, it is a
burden that limits individuals’ choices in the future, such as buying a home
or a car. And for those with student loans, it can become a crushing burden.
That burden of debt that was incurred in the past to boost GDP is now
weighing on consumer spending and on GDP. It explains in part why consumer
spending is languishing, despite a growing US population – by 16 million
since the Financial Crisis – and despite historically low interest rates that
make the cost of debt somewhat less onerous to deal with. And this too is the
price to be paid today and going forward for the policies the Fed imposed on
the US in 2008.
The impact is everywhere. Total business sales in the US have dropped to
2012 levels. Inventories have ballooned to crisis proportions. And as
companies begin to respond by cutting costs, jobs will be next. Read… Why
This Economy Is Now Running Aground