For several weeks now the anti-Russian stance in the US press has quieted
down. Presumably because the political leadership has moved its
attention on to other things, and the media flock has followed suit.
Have you read much about Ukraine and Russia recently?
I thought not, despite the fact that there's plenty of serious action --
both there as well as related activity in the US -- going on that deserves
our careful attention.
As I recently wrote, the plunging oil price is a potential catalyst for
stock market turmoil and sovereign instability. Venezuela is already circling
the drain, and numerous other oil exporters are in deep trouble as they
foolishly expanded their national budgets and social programs to match the
price of oil; something that is easy to do on the way up and devilishly
tricky on the way down.
But consider the impact on Russia. From the Russian point of view,
everything from their plunging ruble to bitter sanctions to the falling price
of oil are the fault of the US, either directly or indirectly. Whether that
is fair or not is irrelevant; that's the view of the Russians right now. So
no surprise, it doesn't dispose them towards much in the way of
good-will towards the West generally, and the US specifically.
The fall in the price of oil is creating serious difficulties economically
and financially for Russia. We'll get to those facets in a minute. But right
now, I want to focus on the continued belligerence of the US towards Russia
-- some of which is overt and some of which, you can be certain, is covert --
which could very well end up provoking a more kinetic and dangerous response
than the West is prepared for.
Russia Forced To Act
Before anyone jumps in to say "Why are you defending Putin? He's a
bad", let me just say that I have been closely analyzing each move by
Russia and the West since then President of Ukraine Yanukovych declined to
sign the European Association Agreement back in November of 2013.
Based on the preponderance of evidence, its' clear to me that the West/US
deserve the lion's share of the blame for the conflict that now rages with
Ukraine and between Russia and the western world.
It was the West that supported the unsavory assortment of thugs,
neo-Nazis, and ultra-nationalists that seized power in a coup from the
democratically-elected Yanukovych. We can argue all we want about
whether he was a good boy or not, but that's irrelevant and plays into the
hands of those at the US State Department who would like to deflect attention
away from the very non-democratic events (shaped behind the scenes by our
influence) that led to his overthrow.
The US did the same thing with Saddam, if you recall. It's a simple
deflection: away from the actions of the US, and towards the character of the
person standing in the line of fire from those actions.
In my view, if Yanukovych had not been violently deposed, Ukraine would be
peaceful right now, Russia would not have had to intervene, and there would
be no civil war in Ukraine and far reduced tensions between the West and
Russia.
So ham-handed were those efforts to intervene in Ukraine on the part of
the Obama State department that no less an historically loathsome creature
than Henry Kissinger even called the US's actions a 'fatal mistake':
Kissinger warns of West’s ‘fatal mistake’ that may lead to new
Cold War
Nov 10, 2014
Former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger has given a chilling
assessment of a new geopolitical situation taking shape amid the
Ukrainian crisis, warning of a possible new Cold War and calling the
West’s approach to the crisis a “fatal mistake.”
The 91-year-old diplomat characterized the tense relations as exhibiting
the danger of “another Cold War.”
“This danger does exist and we can't ignore it,”
Kissinger said. He warned that ignoring this danger any further may result in
a “tragedy,” he told
Germany’s Der Spiegel.
(Source)
When even Henry Kissinger thinks you've been too reckless in the application
of raw power, you've over done it.
So given the timeline of the events that have led to the frostiest
US-Russian relations since the depths of the cold war, I am of the view that
Russia has been actually quite restrained and has not over reacted to any of
the numerous provocations.
Despite the lull in front page reporting of the Russian situation, there
remains a careful program of steady anti-Russian propaganda running through
the western press.
It Takes Two To Tango
prop·a·gan·da
ˌpräpəˈɡandə/
Noun - derogatory
Information, especially of a biased or misleading nature, used to promote
or publicize a particular political cause or point of view.
For propaganda to work well, there needs to be tight coordination between
the State and the press. The role of the press is to first publish the
propaganda, and second, to neglect to look into it or report on anything that
might call it into question. Sins of omission and commission are both
required.
The good news is that the internet is a great equalizing force and we can
readily unearth inconvenient facts with a little digging that blunt the
propaganda. The bad news is that a lot of people still get all their news
from so-called 'official' sources.
At any rate, here's a first-rate piece of unadulterated propaganda
courtesy of Bloomberg. Note that it was printed on Dec 31, one of
several very quiet news days where little debate is likely to happen:
Inside Obama’s Secret Outreach to Russia
Dec 31, 2014
President Barack Obama's administration has been working behind
the scenes for months to forge a new working relationship with
Russia, despite the fact that Russian President Vladimir Putin has
shown little interest in repairing relations with Washington or halting his
aggression in neighboring Ukraine.
In several conversations with Lavrov, Kerry has floated an offer to
Russia that would pave the way for a partial release of some of the most
onerous economic sanctions. Kerry’s conditions included Russia adhering to
September's Minsk agreement and ceasing direct military
support for the Ukrainian separatists.
(Source)
The tenor of this piece is set. It's the US that is trying to be
reasonable, but Russia has shown little interest in repairing relations.
That's one assertion.
Another is that Russia has been providing direct military support for the
separatists in neighboring Ukraine. And yet another that Putin himself has
shown little interest in halting his aggression.
That's the main narrative that the US wants to put forward. Putin is a bad
guy. Like Saddam...remember him? The US is the one being reasonable
here, according to this piece, and it'is Russia that has been fomenting the
troubles.
The US narrative goes further, repeatedly claiming that Russia has been
supplying major arms to the separatists, as we see here from early December
2014:
U.S. Says Russia Arms Ukraine Rebels, OSCE Wary on Truce
Dec 2, 2014
North Atlantic Treaty Organization Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg accused
Russia of sending tanks, advanced air-defense systems and other heavy weapons
across the border to Ukrainian rebels.
Russia denies involvement in the conflict.
“Since the Sept. 5 Minsk cease-fire agreement, Russia has funneled
several hundred” tanks, armed personnel carriers, and other military vehicles
directly to pro-Russian separatists in Ukraine, Kerry said.
Russian military forces still operate inside eastern Ukraine where
they provide “command and control” for the separatists they back, he added.
(Source)
The charge from the Secretary General of NATO and from John Kerry of the
US State department is that Russia has military forces inside Ukraine, and
that they've funneled hundreds of tanks, APCs, and other military vehicles
numbering in the hundreds.
As with the MH-17 disaster, we have to call this another case of the dog
that did not bark.
Where are the pictures?
The sorts of weaponry being claimed here are impossible to
conceal from the air.
Snapping high resolution photos of such things is child's play for today's
military satellites, and even civilian ones, too.
Accusing a major world power of action this brash should require at least
some demonstration of proof. Especially after the WMD warning fiasco
that played out at the UN leading up to the Bush II Iraq invasion. The least
you could do is provide a few pictures of said military vehicles and heavy
weaponry.
But there are none. And the reason none have been offered is because
none exist. If they did, you can be 100% certain they'd be released and
replayed over and over again on CNN until everybody and their uncle could
distinguish a T-72 tank outline from a Russian made APC.
About Those 'Unwilling' Russians
Let's look more closely at the reasons why Russia may not exactly be in a
conciliatory mood towards the US at this moment in time.
With just our short-term memories, we can recall that the US Congress
passed a serious piece of anti-Russian resolution last month that can easily
be seen as a declaration of war by a reasonable person.
This unfortunate piece of legislation, H.Res. 758, was passed on December
4, 2014 and is titled "Strongly condemning the actions of the Russian
Federation, under President Vladimir Putin, which has carried out a policy of
aggression against neighboring countries aimed at political and economic
domination."
Ron Paul expressed the problems with this resolution very well:
Reckless Congress 'Declares War' on Russia
Dec 4, 2014
These are the kinds of resolutions I have always watched closely in
Congress, as what are billed as “harmless” statements of opinion often lead
to sanctions and war. I remember in 1998 arguing strongly against the Iraq
Liberation Act because, as I said at the time, I knew it would lead to war. I
did not oppose the Act because I was an admirer of Saddam Hussein – just as
now I am not an admirer of Putin or any foreign political leader – but rather
because I knew then that another war against Iraq would not solve the
problems and would probably make things worse. We all know what happened
next.
That is why I can hardly believe they are getting away with it again, and
this time with even higher stakes: provoking a war with Russia that could
result in total destruction!
If anyone thinks I am exaggerating about how bad this resolution really
is, let me just offer a few examples from the legislation itself:
The resolution (paragraph 3) accuses Russia of an invasion of Ukraine and
condemns Russia’s violation of Ukrainian sovereignty. The statement
is offered without any proof of such a thing. Surely with our sophisticated
satellites that can read a license plate from space we should have video and
pictures of this Russian invasion. None have been offered.
As to Russia’s violation of Ukrainian sovereignty, why isn’t it a
violation of Ukraine’s sovereignty for the US to participate in the overthrow
of that country’s elected government as it did in February? We have
all heard the tapes of State Department officials plotting with the US
Ambassador in Ukraine to overthrow the government. We heard US Assistant
Secretary of State Victoria Nuland bragging that the US spent $5 billion on
regime change in Ukraine. Why is that OK?
The resolution (paragraph 11) accuses the people in east Ukraine of
holding “fraudulent and illegal elections” in November. Why is it
that every time elections do not produce the results desired by the US
government they are called “illegal” and “fraudulent”? Aren’t the
people of eastern Ukraine allowed self-determination? Isn’t that a basic
human right?
The resolution (paragraph 13) demands a withdrawal of Russia
forces from Ukraine even though the US government has provided no evidence
the Russian army was ever in Ukraine. This paragraph also urges the
government in Kiev to resume military operations against the eastern regions
seeking independence.
(Source)
If the tables were turned, and it was the Russian lawmakers passing a
resolution condemning the US for a variety of illegal activities for which
exactly zero proof was offered, I think we all know just how ablaze with
indignity the US political leadership would be.
Think of this from Russia's perspective. They know perfectly well
all of the things the Honorable Ron Paul speaks of are true. There was
an illegal coup followed by legal elections. The US recognizes the
former as legitimate but the latter as illegal, and then speaks loudly about
the importance of spreading democracy.
Worse, the US keeps mandating that a key condition of lifting its
anti-Russian sanctions is for Russia to leave Ukraine militarily and to stop
shipping lots of heavy armaments there. But it has, as of today,
provided exactly zero pieces of hard evidence to support those accusations.
As bad as this legislation was, the US Senate upped the ante just one week
later on Dec 11, 2014 with Act,
S.2828 The Ukraine Freedom Support Act of 2014:
US-NATO Delivering Arms to Ukraine. The Planning of Aggression
against Russia
Dec 15, 2014
The Ukraine Freedom Support Act (UFSA) of 2014 authorizes lethal
and non-lethal aid. Besides what’s already being supplied.
Including communications equipment. Body armor. Night vision
goggles. Humvees. Radar. Counter-mortar detection units. Binoculars. Small
boats. Various other gear.
Sniper and assault rifles. Hand grenade launchers. Mortars and
shells. Stingers. Anti-tank missiles. What’s known may be the tip of the
iceberg.
UFSA legislation “authoriz(ing) (Obama) to provide defense
articles, defense services, and training to the Government of Ukraine for the
purpose of countering offensive weapons and reestablishing the sovereignty
and territorial integrity of Ukraine…”
“(I)ncluding anti-tank and anti-armor weapons, crew weapons and
ammunition, counter-artillery radars to identify and target artillery
batteries, fire control, range finder, and optical and guidance and control
equipment, tactical troop-operated surveillance drones, and secure command
and communications equipment.”
(Source)
After chiding Russia for supplying military aid, for which the US has
provided no solid evidence in support of that claim, the US has passed an Act
designed to funnel all sorts of military aid to the ruling powers in
Kiev.
This could just as easily have been labeled the "Do As We Say, Not As
We Do" Act. For some reason, the Russians are not too impressed
with that approach.
Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman Alexander Lukashevich said in
response:
“Both houses of the US Congress have approved the Ukraine Freedom
Support Act bypassing debates and proper voting. The overtly confrontational
message of the new law cannot but evoke profound regret.”
“Once again Washington is leveling baseless sweeping accusations
against Russia and threatening more sanctions. At the same time it is
muddling together the Ukrainian and Syrian conflicts, which the United States
has been instrumental in inflating. It even refers to the INF Treaty
although American compliance with it is questionable, to put it mildly.
At the same time, it promises to Kiev to arm its military
operation in Donbass and openly admits that it intends to use NGOs for an
impact on Russia’s domestic processes.”
“Though it appears that major challenges to international security demand
pooled Russian and American efforts, US legislators follow President Obama’s
administration destroying the very foundation of partnership. Bilateral
relations are being torpedoed no less powerfully than by the notorious Jackson-Vanik
amendment, endorsed in 1974 to obstruct cooperation for several decades. We
cannot but conclude that, blinded by outdated phobias, the United States is
anxious to reverse time. As the US Congress instigates anti-Russian
sanctions, it should part with the illusion of their effect. Russia will not
be intimidated into giving up its interests and tolerating interference in
its internal affairs.”
(Source)
The really bizarre part of this story is that I cannot yet find any
credible analysis or commentary explaining exactly what the US's compelling
interests are in Ukraine, nor what the end goal might be. It's all something
of a mystery, compounded substantially by the fact that Russia can be a very
powerful ally or enemy to have. Why not choose ally? Why choose enemy?
On the flip side, we have lots of compelling evidence that the US has a
serious plan in place to weaken and destabilize Russia. The tactics we're
using would certainly be considered acts of war by the US were the
circumstances reversed.
As one Russian observer put it:
Both US Assistant-Secretary of State Victoria Nuland — the wife of the
Project for the New American Century (PNAC) co-founder and neo-conservative
advocate for empire Robert Kagan — and US Assistant-Secretary of the Treasury
Daniel Glaser told the Foreign Affairs Committee of the US House of
Representatives in May 2014 that the objectives of the US economic sanctions
strategy against the Russian Federation was not only to damage the trade ties
and business between Russia and the EU, but to also bring about economic
instability in Russia and to create currency instability and inflation.
[5] In other words, the US government was targeting the Russian ruble for
devaluation and the Russian economy for inflation since at least May 2014.
The United States is waging a fully fledged economic war against
the Russian Federations and its national economy. Ultimately, all Russians
are collectively the target. The economic sanctions are nothing more than
economic warfare. If the crisis in Ukraine did not happen, another
pretext would have been found for assaulting Russia.
Both US Assistant-Secretary of State Victoria Nuland and US
Assistant-Secretary of the Treasury Daniel Glaser even told the Foreign
Affairs Committee of the US House of Representatives in May 2014 that the
ultimate objectives of the US economic sanctions against Russia are to make
the Russian population so miserable and desperate that they would eventually
demand that the Kremlin surrender to the US and bring about "political
change". "Political change" can mean many things, but
what it most probably implies here is regime change in Moscow.
In fact, the aims of the US do not even appear to be geared at
coercing the Russian government to change its foreign policy, but to incite
regime change in Moscow and to cripple the Russian Federation entirely
through the instigation of internal divisions.
This is why maps of a divided Russia are being circulated by Radio
Free Europe. [17]
(Source)
We Not On A Road To War, We've Already Arrived
If it looks like a war, acts like a war and smells like a war, it may just
be a war. The US has been waging economic, financial, trade, political
and even kinetic war-by-proxy against Russia. The only question is why?
From the perspective of Russians it seem clear that neocons are driving
the US ship of state, and that they are simply not the sort of people with
whom you negotiate in good faith or whom you trust. The neocons believe
they have the upper hand, they are part of the most powerful country on
earth, and they never negotiate preferring to dictate.
The only problem is, the US is rapidly losing allies and friends the world
over and it's not nearly as powerful as it used to be, thanks to a profound
failure to invest in itself (education, infrastructure, etc)
In Part 2: Why No One Should Want This To Devolve Further,
we analyze the most likely responses the West's bear-baiting will generate
from Russia. The short story is this: in none of the outcomes will there be
clear victors.
There is simply no good rationale for the geo-political risks being taken
right now. Leaving us with the critical question: Why are we willing to
let our leaders play nuclear "Russian roulette", for stakes we
don't agree with?
Click here to access Part 2 of this report (free
executive summary; enrollment required for full access)
