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We’re now
in the thick of the holiday season and we have to expect a very quiet week to
come but that doesn't mean we won’t see some nice moves. The low volume
coming in the week ahead facilitates much easier movement of stocks.
We
had some great moves this past week and my thoughts on the precious metals
came to fruition to a tee and now that the downside support areas have been
hit we can look forward to less downside and a resumption of the uptrend in
the new year.
Next
weekend I’ll issue some longer-term precious metals charts which is
always important to look at to help block out the noise that is the daily
action.
Let’s
do something a little different this week and show the ETF charts since that
is the trading vehicle to use and it’s what I show subscribers everyday and also the charts do show different tales
since they trade less hours than the physical commodity.
I
will keep this holiday edition pretty short so, you’re welcome!
Metals
review
 
The GLD ETF
fell 2.32% this past week right on cue. I’ve been lucky enough to have
been nailing so many calls lately and gold has been no exception.
I
alerted subscribers to the head and shoulder pattern that formed and is
highlighted with circles here.
I
also talked about the gap left back in mid-August. Gaps are often filled
before uptrends resume, especially in gold it seems.
The
funny things was that the measured move lower from
the head and shoulders pattern matched up to the gap fill area exactly at
$158.
It
always fascinates me how that works, but work it did and we came within a
whisker of touching $158 before seeing price reverse on very heavy volume and
close the day back near it’s highs.
I’m
sure you’ve noticed how I’ve changed from less of a fundamental
basis over the years to a much more technical stance as my skills are
constantly improving. It’s a never ending process.
It
just works, not every-time but enough for it to now rule my life and views to
a large degree.
Technical
analysis has saved my butt on many occasions and adapting to different
timeframes as the market dictates almost always ensures there are ways to
make money.
Now
I’d have to be looking for some sort of base to form between $164 and $160
for a couple weeks or so before we can see a trending move higher begin.
Although
I’m constantly pointing out reversal bars to subscribers such as we saw
in GLD Thursday. You can almost always squeeze a couple days or so out of a
reversal bar like that but you have to take profits quickly, but they can be
substantial.
The
SLV ETF dropped a hefty 6.96% this past week and followed gold lower nicely
and right on cue.
The
chart doesn’t look quite as good as that of gold here in terms of
having put in a bottom.
Personally
I’d like to see the August gap at $28 filled over the next few days.
We
just have to watch the action but that $28 area looks likely in the
short-term.
As
always, please don’t shoot the messenger. I’m just telling you
what the charts are showing me and sometimes I’m right.
It’s
not my fault but if you have trouble accepting the reality that everything
moves up and down within a major trend then perhaps this isn’t the game
for you.
I
know many who expect things to rise daily and just can’t seem to accept
anything else. There is no point putting blame on anything or anyone really
since when we do see a longer trend of almost daily price rises that only
means we are nearing the end of a large trend higher.
2012
has been a super year in reality even though we haven’t risen much.
A
nice base has formed in 2012 which will show us higher prices in 2013 and
taking a quick look at a longer term chart I am seeing the start of a cup and
handle pattern that looks to be set to breakout in about 3 years, but more on
that next week when I do my annual long-term chart review. Stay tuned for
that one!
The
platinum ETF fell 4.82% this past week and I was way off base on this call.
I’d
thought the triangle pattern would lead to lower prices but I’m always
biased to the bullish side when it comes to precious metals even though this
pattern is notorious for it’s
unpredictability.
The
false breakout was the tipoff last week and we broke below the uptrend line
at the $157 level which could have been the start of a nice quick short
position.
Now
we see the $150 level as support but if that fails then $147.50 is next and
perhaps even a test of the gap from August at $142.50 but that is a long ways
away so let’s focus on the action here at $150 for now.
I
have no idea if a low is in here or not and can only watch for now.
The
PALL ETF fell 3.56% this past week and I mentioned the past two weeks or more
that the top area here at $69 on this chart or $700 on the palladium chart
was an area to be taking profits, not getting long.
I
mentioned last week that ideally we’d see a handle form here with some
consolidation. That is what’s taking place here so far.
This
handle, or downtrending channel shouldn’t go
any lower and shouldn’t last much longer if it’s to be true. A
move above $68 on this chart is the first buy point with the second coming
above recent highs just above $69.
I
want to wish you and yours a wonderful holiday season. It’s not the
material gifts that count it’s the time together.
Enjoy
the whole week to come and keep an eye out for next weeks
yearly chart review that will take a poke at foretelling what 2013 will bring.
And a big thank you to you for reading and subscribers for so much
more. If it weren’t for every single one of you, I’d not be dong this in a public forum.
Warren
Bevan
www.preciousmetalstockreview.com
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