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INTRA-DAY NEWSLETTER ~ Feb 26 2015
Premiums on the Shanghai Gold Exchange are firm around $4-$5 an ounce over the global spot price as buyers returned to the market after the Feb. 18-24 holiday in China.
"Physical gold demand appears to be picking up again now that Chinese traders have returned after the New Year celebrations," Commerzbank said in a note. "This is reflected in the premiums being paid on the Shanghai Gold Exchange."
Data showed on Thursday that China's gold imports from Hong Kong rose in January from the previous month, reflecting increased demand ahead of the Lunar New Year. Net gold imports from Hong Kong climbed to 76.118 tonnes last month from a three-month low of 71.381 tonnes in December.
Fed chair Janet Yellen indicated in testimony to the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday and the House of Representatives' Financial Services Committee on Wednesday that the U.S. central bank was in no rush to raise interest rates.
Since then, some analysts have shifted expectations for the first U.S. rate hike since 2006 to happen in September or later this year, instead of June as previously expected.
"The combination of China returning, Yellen pushing the can further out, bond yields lower and exchange-traded product demand picking up has helped create a floor following a $117 sell-off (in gold) since January," Saxo Bank's head of commodity strategy Ole Hansen said.
Gold Chart
Gold held our 1188 support point this week with an 1190 low. Now we have reached 1st weekly resistance 1218-1225. It is possible that this will be gold's high for this week. However a close above 1222-1225 will favor higher to 1239-1244 next week. The new short term cycle arrives on March 3rd (plus or minus 72 hours).
In summary the test of the downtrend line of 2014 is complete and the 2015 uptrend is still in play. Be aware however, that the pattern (so far) is not a strong one for gold. That can change but we need a weekly close above 1222-1225 for starters in order for that to develop further. Otherwise metals can still be vulnerable to the downside.
Support on Thursday for gold is 1205-1209 and resistance 1218-1222.
Gold Cycles
 
Gold Medium Term
Website readers know that our line in the sand as far as resuming the medium term uptrend in gold is at the dual triple green channel line. The January high was totally rejected at this key line. On the long term, it takes a monthly close above the RED channel line in order to favor the long term trend has turned back up. A monthly close below 1172 would favor that the gold low is not yet in place for this bear market. A monthly close above 1322 is needed to favor a challenge to the triple green trend lines in an attempt to reverse them from resistance to support.
Silver
In silver the 1680-1700 area is resistance and we have reached 1680. The key for silver is whether we can now hold the support/resistance pivot line on the chart. If so, then silver could be moving towards 1730-1750 next week. However, like gold, silver could be making its high for the week. Support is 1640-1660 for Thursday and then 1620-1625. Let's look at the longer term chart (Scroll down).
On a longer term basis silver is trying to carve out a major low. We need a weekly/Monthly close above 1850 and then 2133 to confirm an important low has taken place in silver. The trend line that price is resting on is the last major uptrend line for silver support. The downtrend line is near the 1250 area in price. As long as silver remains below the red and blue moving averages, the downtrend from 2011 can still rear its ugly head. A weekly close below 1550 would not be good technical action.
INTRA-DAY NEWSLETTER ~ Feb 26 2015
Premiums on the Shanghai Gold Exchange are firm around $4-$5 an ounce over the global spot price as buyers returned to the market after the Feb. 18-24 holiday in China.
"Physical gold demand appears to be picking up again now that Chinese traders have returned after the New Year celebrations," Commerzbank said in a note. "This is reflected in the premiums being paid on the Shanghai Gold Exchange."
Data showed on Thursday that China's gold imports from Hong Kong rose in January from the previous month, reflecting increased demand ahead of the Lunar New Year. Net gold imports from Hong Kong climbed to 76.118 tonnes last month from a three-month low of 71.381 tonnes in December.
Fed chair Janet Yellen indicated in testimony to the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday and the House of Representatives' Financial Services Committee on Wednesday that the U.S. central bank was in no rush to raise interest rates.
Since then, some analysts have shifted expectations for the first U.S. rate hike since 2006 to happen in September or later this year, instead of June as previously expected.
"The combination of China returning, Yellen pushing the can further out, bond yields lower and exchange-traded product demand picking up has helped create a floor following a $117 sell-off (in gold) since January," Saxo Bank's head of commodity strategy Ole Hansen said.
Headline news from www.zerohedge.com below.
Initial Jobless Claims Surge Most Since 2013
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/26/2015
After last week's holiday-shortened exuberance over initial jobless claims, this week's slam back to reality is quite a shock to the "everything is awesome" crowd. Initial jobless claims jumped 31,000 to 313,000 - the biggest percentage rise since December 2013. Continuing claims dropped modestly but remain up around 3.5% over the last quarter - near the worst since 2009.
Stocks Resume Rise To New Records As US Prepares For First Annual Deflation Since 2009
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/26/2015
Following a quiet overnight session in which the main event appears to be a statement by Chinese premier Li for more active fiscal policy, which has pushed the metals complex higher, although technically every other asset class as well, with US equity futures set to open in fresh record high territory, even as 10Y yields around the world continue to decline, attention today will fall on the CPI print due out shortly, because if consensus is correct, January will be the first month this decade when US inflation posts a negative print, mostly due to the delayed effect of sliding commodity prices. As Deutsche recaps, the most important number today is the headline CPI where the headline YoY rate is predicted to be negative by the market (-0.1%) for the first time since 2009. Over this period the YoY rate stayed negative for 8 months. However before this we hadn't seen a full year decline since August 1955. In other words, a few months before what may be the first US rate hike for a new generation of traders, the US is set to print its first annual deflation since Lehman, transitory or not.
"NEIN" - Germany's Bild Has A Message For Greece: "No More Billions For Greedy Greeks"
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/26/2015
One day ahead of a key vote in the German Bundestag whether to ratify the 4-month Greek bailout extension, the biggest-selling, mass-market newspaper (or tabloid as some call it) with a circulation of 2.5 million, Bild, has made it very clear just how it feels about the latest Greek can kicking event. NEIN !
Gold Chart
Gold held our 1188 support point this week with an 1190 low. Now we have reached 1st weekly resistance 1218-1225. It is possible that this will be gold's high for this week. However a close above 1222-1225 will favor higher to 1239-1244 next week. The new short term cycle arrives on March 3rd (plus or minus 72 hours).
In summary the test of the downtrend line of 2014 is complete and the 2015 uptrend is still in play. Be aware however, that the pattern (so far) is not a strong one for gold. That can change but we need a weekly close above 1222-1225 for starters in order for that to develop further.Otherwise metals can still be vulnerable to the downside.
Support on Thursday for gold is 1205-1209 and resistance 1218-1222.
Gold Medium Term
Website readers know that our line in the sand as far as resuming the medium term uptrend in gold is at the dual triple green channel line. The January high was totally rejected at this key line. On the long term, it takes a monthly close above the RED channel line in order to favor the long term trend has turned back up. A monthly close below 1172 would favor that the gold low is not yet in place for this bear market.
Silver
In silver the 1680-1700 area is resistance and we have reached 1680. The key for silver is whether we can now hold the support/resistance pivot line on the chart. If so, then silver could be moving towards 1730-1750 next week. However, like gold, silver could be making its high for the week. Support is 1640-1660 for Thursday and then 1620-1625. Let's look at the longer term chart (Scroll down).
On a longer term basis silver is trying to carve out a major low. We need a weekly/Monthly close above 1850 and then 2133 to confirm an important low has taken place in silver. The trend line that price is resting on is the last major uptrend line for silver support. The downtrend line is near the 1250 area in price. As long as silver remains below the red and blue moving averages, the downtrend from 2011 can still rear its ugly head. A weekly close below 1550 would not be good technical action.
INTRA-DAY NEWSLETTER ~ Feb 26 2015
Premiums on the Shanghai Gold Exchange are firm around $4-$5 an ounce over the global spot price as buyers returned to the market after the Feb. 18-24 holiday in China.
"Physical gold demand appears to be picking up again now that Chinese traders have returned after the New Year celebrations," Commerzbank said in a note. "This is reflected in the premiums being paid on the Shanghai Gold Exchange."
Data showed on Thursday that China's gold imports from Hong Kong rose in January from the previous month, reflecting increased demand ahead of the Lunar New Year. Net gold imports from Hong Kong climbed to 76.118 tonnes last month from a three-month low of 71.381 tonnes in December.
Fed chair Janet Yellen indicated in testimony to the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday and the House of Representatives' Financial Services Committee on Wednesday that the U.S. central bank was in no rush to raise interest rates.
Since then, some analysts have shifted expectations for the first U.S. rate hike since 2006 to happen in September or later this year, instead of June as previously expected.
"The combination of China returning, Yellen pushing the can further out, bond yields lower and exchange-traded product demand picking up has helped create a floor following a $117 sell-off (in gold) since January," Saxo Bank's head of commodity strategy Ole Hansen said.
Headline news from www.zerohedge.com below.
Initial Jobless Claims Surge Most Since 2013
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/26/2015
After last week's holiday-shortened exuberance over initial jobless claims, this week's slam back to reality is quite a shock to the "everything is awesome" crowd. Initial jobless claims jumped 31,000 to 313,000 - the biggest percentage rise since December 2013. Continuing claims dropped modestly but remain up around 3.5% over the last quarter - near the worst since 2009.
Stocks Resume Rise To New Records As US Prepares For First Annual Deflation Since 2009
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/26/2015
Following a quiet overnight session in which the main event appears to be a statement by Chinese premier Li for more active fiscal policy, which has pushed the metals complex higher, although technically every other asset class as well, with US equity futures set to open in fresh record high territory, even as 10Y yields around the world continue to decline, attention today will fall on the CPI print due out shortly, because if consensus is correct, January will be the first month this decade when US inflation posts a negative print, mostly due to the delayed effect of sliding commodity prices. As Deutsche recaps, the most important number today is the headline CPI where the headline YoY rate is predicted to be negative by the market (-0.1%) for the first time since 2009. Over this period the YoY rate stayed negative for 8 months. However before this we hadn't seen a full year decline since August 1955. In other words, a few months before what may be the first US rate hike for a new generation of traders, the US is set to print its first annual deflation since Lehman, transitory or not.
"NEIN" - Germany's Bild Has A Message For Greece: "No More Billions For Greedy Greeks"
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/26/2015
One day ahead of a key vote in the German Bundestag whether to ratify the 4-month Greek bailout extension, the biggest-selling, mass-market newspaper (or tabloid as some call it) with a circulation of 2.5 million, Bild, has made it very clear just how it feels about the latest Greek can kicking event. NEIN !
Gold Chart
Gold held our 1188 support point this week with an 1190 low. Now we have reached 1st weekly resistance 1218-1225. It is possible that this will be gold's high for this week. However a close above 1222-1225 will favor higher to 1239-1244 next week. The new short term cycle arrives on March 3rd (plus or minus 72 hours).
In summary the test of the downtrend line of 2014 is complete and the 2015 uptrend is still in play. Be aware however, that the pattern (so far) is not a strong one for gold. That can change but we need a weekly close above 1222-1225 for starters in order for that to develop further.Otherwise metals can still be vulnerable to the downside.
Support on Thursday for gold is 1205-1209 and resistance 1218-1222.
Gold Medium Term
Website readers know that our line in the sand as far as resuming the medium term uptrend in gold is at the dual triple green channel line. The January high was totally rejected at this key line. On the long term, it takes a monthly close above the RED channel line in order to favor the long term trend has turned back up. A monthly close below 1172 would favor that the gold low is not yet in place for this bear market.
Silver
In silver the 1680-1700 area is resistance and we have reached 1680. The key for silver is whether we can now hold the support/resistance pivot line on the chart. If so, then silver could be moving towards 1730-1750 next week. However, like gold, silver could be making its high for the week. Support is 1640-1660 for Thursday and then 1620-1625. Let's look at the longer term chart (Scroll down).
On a longer term basis silver is trying to carve out a major low. We need a weekly/Monthly close above 1850 and then 2133 to confirm an important low has taken place in silver. The trend line that price is resting on is the last major uptrend line for silver support. The downtrend line is near the 1250 area in price. As long as silver remains below the red and blue moving averages, the downtrend from 2011 can still rear its ugly head. A weekly close below 1550 would not be good technical action.
INTRA-DAY NEWSLETTER ~ Feb 26 2015
Premiums on the Shanghai Gold Exchange are firm around $4-$5 an ounce over the global spot price as buyers returned to the market after the Feb. 18-24 holiday in China.
"Physical gold demand appears to be picking up again now that Chinese traders have returned after the New Year celebrations," Commerzbank said in a note. "This is reflected in the premiums being paid on the Shanghai Gold Exchange."
Data showed on Thursday that China's gold imports from Hong Kong rose in January from the previous month, reflecting increased demand ahead of the Lunar New Year. Net gold imports from Hong Kong climbed to 76.118 tonnes last month from a three-month low of 71.381 tonnes in December.
Fed chair Janet Yellen indicated in testimony to the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday and the House of Representatives' Financial Services Committee on Wednesday that the U.S. central bank was in no rush to raise interest rates.
Since then, some analysts have shifted expectations for the first U.S. rate hike since 2006 to happen in September or later this year, instead of June as previously expected.
"The combination of China returning, Yellen pushing the can further out, bond yields lower and exchange-traded product demand picking up has helped create a floor following a $117 sell-off (in gold) since January," Saxo Bank's head of commodity strategy Ole Hansen said.
Headline news from www.zerohedge.com below.
Initial Jobless Claims Surge Most Since 2013
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/26/2015
After last week's holiday-shortened exuberance over initial jobless claims, this week's slam back to reality is quite a shock to the "everything is awesome" crowd. Initial jobless claims jumped 31,000 to 313,000 - the biggest percentage rise since December 2013. Continuing claims dropped modestly but remain up around 3.5% over the last quarter - near the worst since 2009.
Stocks Resume Rise To New Records As US Prepares For First Annual Deflation Since 2009
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/26/2015
Following a quiet overnight session in which the main event appears to be a statement by Chinese premier Li for more active fiscal policy, which has pushed the metals complex higher, although technically every other asset class as well, with US equity futures set to open in fresh record high territory, even as 10Y yields around the world continue to decline, attention today will fall on the CPI print due out shortly, because if consensus is correct, January will be the first month this decade when US inflation posts a negative print, mostly due to the delayed effect of sliding commodity prices. As Deutsche recaps, the most important number today is the headline CPI where the headline YoY rate is predicted to be negative by the market (-0.1%) for the first time since 2009. Over this period the YoY rate stayed negative for 8 months. However before this we hadn't seen a full year decline since August 1955. In other words, a few months before what may be the first US rate hike for a new generation of traders, the US is set to print its first annual deflation since Lehman, transitory or not.
"NEIN" - Germany's Bild Has A Message For Greece: "No More Billions For Greedy Greeks"
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/26/2015
One day ahead of a key vote in the German Bundestag whether to ratify the 4-month Greek bailout extension, the biggest-selling, mass-market newspaper (or tabloid as some call it) with a circulation of 2.5 million, Bild, has made it very clear just how it feels about the latest Greek can kicking event. NEIN !
Gold Chart
Gold held our 1188 support point this week with an 1190 low. Now we have reached 1st weekly resistance 1218-1225. It is possible that this will be gold's high for this week. However a close above 1222-1225 will favor higher to 1239-1244 next week. The new short term cycle arrives on March 3rd (plus or minus 72 hours).
In summary the test of the downtrend line of 2014 is complete and the 2015 uptrend is still in play. Be aware however, that the pattern (so far) is not a strong one for gold. That can change but we need a weekly close above 1222-1225 for starters in order for that to develop further.Otherwise metals can still be vulnerable to the downside.
Support on Thursday for gold is 1205-1209 and resistance 1218-1222.
Gold Medium Term
Website readers know that our line in the sand as far as resuming the medium term uptrend in gold is at the dual triple green channel line. The January high was totally rejected at this key line. On the long term, it takes a monthly close above the RED channel line in order to favor the long term trend has turned back up. A monthly close below 1172 would favor that the gold low is not yet in place for this bear market.
Silver
In silver the 1680-1700 area is resistance and we have reached 1680. The key for silver is whether we can now hold the support/resistance pivot line on the chart. If so, then silver could be moving towards 1730-1750 next week. However, like gold, silver could be making its high for the week. Support is 1640-1660 for Thursday and then 1620-1625. Let's look at the longer term chart (Scroll down).
On a longer term basis silver is trying to carve out a major low. We need a weekly/Monthly close above 1850 and then 2133 to confirm an important low has taken place in silver. The trend line that price is resting on is the last major uptrend line for silver support. The downtrend line is near the 1250 area in price. As long as silver remains below the red and blue moving averages, the downtrend from 2011 can still rear its ugly head. A weekly close below 1550 would not be good technical action.
INTRA-DAY NEWSLETTER ~ Feb 26 2015
Premiums on the Shanghai Gold Exchange are firm around $4-$5 an ounce over the global spot price as buyers returned to the market after the Feb. 18-24 holiday in China.
"Physical gold demand appears to be picking up again now that Chinese traders have returned after the New Year celebrations," Commerzbank said in a note. "This is reflected in the premiums being paid on the Shanghai Gold Exchange."
Data showed on Thursday that China's gold imports from Hong Kong rose in January from the previous month, reflecting increased demand ahead of the Lunar New Year. Net gold imports from Hong Kong climbed to 76.118 tonnes last month from a three-month low of 71.381 tonnes in December.
Fed chair Janet Yellen indicated in testimony to the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday and the House of Representatives' Financial Services Committee on Wednesday that the U.S. central bank was in no rush to raise interest rates.
Since then, some analysts have shifted expectations for the first U.S. rate hike since 2006 to happen in September or later this year, instead of June as previously expected.
"The combination of China returning, Yellen pushing the can further out, bond yields lower and exchange-traded product demand picking up has helped create a floor following a $117 sell-off (in gold) since January," Saxo Bank's head of commodity strategy Ole Hansen said.
Headline news from www.zerohedge.com below.
Initial Jobless Claims Surge Most Since 2013
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/26/2015
After last week's holiday-shortened exuberance over initial jobless claims, this week's slam back to reality is quite a shock to the "everything is awesome" crowd. Initial jobless claims jumped 31,000 to 313,000 - the biggest percentage rise since December 2013. Continuing claims dropped modestly but remain up around 3.5% over the last quarter - near the worst since 2009.
Stocks Resume Rise To New Records As US Prepares For First Annual Deflation Since 2009
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/26/2015
Following a quiet overnight session in which the main event appears to be a statement by Chinese premier Li for more active fiscal policy, which has pushed the metals complex higher, although technically every other asset class as well, with US equity futures set to open in fresh record high territory, even as 10Y yields around the world continue to decline, attention today will fall on the CPI print due out shortly, because if consensus is correct, January will be the first month this decade when US inflation posts a negative print, mostly due to the delayed effect of sliding commodity prices. As Deutsche recaps, the most important number today is the headline CPI where the headline YoY rate is predicted to be negative by the market (-0.1%) for the first time since 2009. Over this period the YoY rate stayed negative for 8 months. However before this we hadn't seen a full year decline since August 1955. In other words, a few months before what may be the first US rate hike for a new generation of traders, the US is set to print its first annual deflation since Lehman, transitory or not.
"NEIN" - Germany's Bild Has A Message For Greece: "No More Billions For Greedy Greeks"
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/26/2015
One day ahead of a key vote in the German Bundestag whether to ratify the 4-month Greek bailout extension, the biggest-selling, mass-market newspaper (or tabloid as some call it) with a circulation of 2.5 million, Bild, has made it very clear just how it feels about the latest Greek can kicking event. NEIN !
Gold Chart
Gold held our 1188 support point this week with an 1190 low. Now we have reached 1st weekly resistance 1218-1225. It is possible that this will be gold's high for this week. However a close above 1222-1225 will favor higher to 1239-1244 next week. The new short term cycle arrives on March 3rd (plus or minus 72 hours).
In summary the test of the downtrend line of 2014 is complete and the 2015 uptrend is still in play. Be aware however, that the pattern (so far) is not a strong one for gold. That can change but we need a weekly close above 1222-1225 for starters in order for that to develop further.Otherwise metals can still be vulnerable to the downside.
Support on Thursday for gold is 1205-1209 and resistance 1218-1222.
Gold Medium Term
Website readers know that our line in the sand as far as resuming the medium term uptrend in gold is at the dual triple green channel line. The January high was totally rejected at this key line. On the long term, it takes a monthly close above the RED channel line in order to favor the long term trend has turned back up. A monthly close below 1172 would favor that the gold low is not yet in place for this bear market.
Silver
In silver the 1680-1700 area is resistance and we have reached 1680. The key for silver is whether we can now hold the support/resistance pivot line on the chart. If so, then silver could be moving towards 1730-1750 next week. However, like gold, silver could be making its high for the week. Support is 1640-1660 for Thursday and then 1620-1625. Let's look at the longer term chart (Scroll down).
On a longer term basis silver is trying to carve out a major low. We need a weekly/Monthly close above 1850 and then 2133 to confirm an important low has taken place in silver. The trend line that price is resting on is the last major uptrend line for silver support. The downtrend line is near the 1250 area in price. As long as silver remains below the red and blue moving averages, the downtrend from 2011 can still rear its ugly head. A weekly close below 1550 would not be good technical action.
INTRA-DAY NEWSLETTER ~ Feb 26 2015
Premiums on the Shanghai Gold Exchange are firm around $4-$5 an ounce over the global spot price as buyers returned to the market after the Feb. 18-24 holiday in China.
"Physical gold demand appears to be picking up again now that Chinese traders have returned after the New Year celebrations," Commerzbank said in a note. "This is reflected in the premiums being paid on the Shanghai Gold Exchange."
Data showed on Thursday that China's gold imports from Hong Kong rose in January from the previous month, reflecting increased demand ahead of the Lunar New Year. Net gold imports from Hong Kong climbed to 76.118 tonnes last month from a three-month low of 71.381 tonnes in December.
Fed chair Janet Yellen indicated in testimony to the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday and the House of Representatives' Financial Services Committee on Wednesday that the U.S. central bank was in no rush to raise interest rates.
Since then, some analysts have shifted expectations for the first U.S. rate hike since 2006 to happen in September or later this year, instead of June as previously expected.
"The combination of China returning, Yellen pushing the can further out, bond yields lower and exchange-traded product demand picking up has helped create a floor following a $117 sell-off (in gold) since January," Saxo Bank's head of commodity strategy Ole Hansen said.
Headline news from www.zerohedge.com below.
Initial Jobless Claims Surge Most Since 2013
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/26/2015
After last week's holiday-shortened exuberance over initial jobless claims, this week's slam back to reality is quite a shock to the "everything is awesome" crowd. Initial jobless claims jumped 31,000 to 313,000 - the biggest percentage rise since December 2013. Continuing claims dropped modestly but remain up around 3.5% over the last quarter - near the worst since 2009.
Stocks Resume Rise To New Records As US Prepares For First Annual Deflation Since 2009
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/26/2015
Following a quiet overnight session in which the main event appears to be a statement by Chinese premier Li for more active fiscal policy, which has pushed the metals complex higher, although technically every other asset class as well, with US equity futures set to open in fresh record high territory, even as 10Y yields around the world continue to decline, attention today will fall on the CPI print due out shortly, because if consensus is correct, January will be the first month this decade when US inflation posts a negative print, mostly due to the delayed effect of sliding commodity prices. As Deutsche recaps, the most important number today is the headline CPI where the headline YoY rate is predicted to be negative by the market (-0.1%) for the first time since 2009. Over this period the YoY rate stayed negative for 8 months. However before this we hadn't seen a full year decline since August 1955. In other words, a few months before what may be the first US rate hike for a new generation of traders, the US is set to print its first annual deflation since Lehman, transitory or not.
"NEIN" - Germany's Bild Has A Message For Greece: "No More Billions For Greedy Greeks"
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/26/2015
One day ahead of a key vote in the German Bundestag whether to ratify the 4-month Greek bailout extension, the biggest-selling, mass-market newspaper (or tabloid as some call it) with a circulation of 2.5 million, Bild, has made it very clear just how it feels about the latest Greek can kicking event. NEIN !
Gold Chart
Gold held our 1188 support point this week with an 1190 low. Now we have reached 1st weekly resistance 1218-1225. It is possible that this will be gold's high for this week. However a close above 1222-1225 will favor higher to 1239-1244 next week. The new short term cycle arrives on March 3rd (plus or minus 72 hours).
In summary the test of the downtrend line of 2014 is complete and the 2015 uptrend is still in play. Be aware however, that the pattern (so far) is not a strong one for gold. That can change but we need a weekly close above 1222-1225 for starters in order for that to develop further.Otherwise metals can still be vulnerable to the downside.
Support on Thursday for gold is 1205-1209 and resistance 1218-1222.
Gold Medium Term
Website readers know that our line in the sand as far as resuming the medium term uptrend in gold is at the dual triple green channel line. The January high was totally rejected at this key line. On the long term, it takes a monthly close above the RED channel line in order to favor the long term trend has turned back up. A monthly close below 1172 would favor that the gold low is not yet in place for this bear market.
Silver
In silver the 1680-1700 area is resistance and we have reached 1680. The key for silver is whether we can now hold the support/resistance pivot line on the chart. If so, then silver could be moving towards 1730-1750 next week. However, like gold, silver could be making its high for the week. Support is 1640-1660 for Thursday and then 1620-1625. Let's look at the longer term chart (Scroll down).
On a longer term basis silver is trying to carve out a major low. We need a weekly/Monthly close above 1850 and then 2133 to confirm an important low has taken place in silver. The trend line that price is resting on is the last major uptrend line for silver support. The downtrend line is near the 1250 area in price. As long as silver remains below the red and blue moving averages, the downtrend from 2011 can still rear its ugly head. A weekly close below 1550 would not be good technical action.
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