|
“I don’t see Silver going below
$30…”
David Morgan, Silver Guru
Understandably so, David Morgan.
Just a week ago 3.6 Million Ounces of Physical Silver were
removed from the COMEX Registered Inventory – fully 17% of the Total
Registered Inventory of Silver. There are Big Buyers of Physical Silver.
And yet Cartel (see Note 1) Price Suppression Actions and several Main
Stream Media Spinners would have us believe that demand for physical Silver
(and Gold) is topping out.
Why even the least expensive local coin shop marks up its Bullion
Silver Eagles of recent vintage by 11% over spot.
In sum, that part of the Public which relies mainly or solely on the
MSM for its news is being Tricked – to use the Halloween Metaphor
– into half-truths, misinformation, and that Manufactured News
otherwise known as Disinformation. And of course there are blatant News
Blackouts.
Those gulled into such Fictions will not have the “Treat”
of being “long” the next time Silver and Gold Explode upward, and
they will be (and are being), misdirected into investments that have little
or no Profit or Wealth Protection Potential. Consider the fate of initial
investors in the Facebook IPO for example.
Similarly, those who (still) contend that Markets are not subject to
Heavy Intervention (i.e., Rigging) are denying (just to take one example)
that the Massive Rig Job performed on LIBOR, has cost borrowers around the
world, public and private alike, hundreds of billions in excess interest
charges.
So in order to surmount the effects of this rigging in order to profit
and protect it is essential to monitor Independent Media and the
Interventionals as well as Fundamentals and Technicals.
Those who do monitor the Independent Media will be more likely to be
alert to inconsistencies. For example, even though major Equities indices are
near 5-year highs consider that:
- The transportation stocks
are not confirming the recent Bullish Equities moves in general.
- Small cap stocks are not
significantly outperforming large cap ones.
and
- Defensive stocks are
somewhat outperforming others.
- Third Quarter Earnings
Reports are confirming what we earlier forecast – that the Technology bubble
is topping and deflating.
The foregoing are not signals of a Bullish Equities Markets for
the mid and long term. Indeed, we already have a confirmed Hindenburg Omen
indicating an Equities Market Crash may be on the horizon. But how often have
you heard the foregoing discussed or even reported on in the MSM?
In a similar vein, Key Real Statistics reflect an ongoing recession
(i.e. No Recovery) with a very Real possibility of a Hyperstagflation.
Consider noted Economist, John Williams’ (shadowstats.com) recently
reported findings.
“Quarterly Industrial Production Contracted
for First Time Since Official Recession
Quarterly Pace of Inflation Picked Up, With CPI and
PPI Topping Market Expectations
September Year-to-Year Inflation: 2.0% (CPI-U), 2.0%
(CPI-W), 9.6% (SGS)
Real Average Weekly Earnings Continued to Tumble
Inflation Provided Half of September Retail Sales
Growth
“The economy continues to show signs of
faltering, while the pace of inflation continues to increase. On the economic
front, half the 1.15% monthly gain reported in September retail sales (see
Commentary No. 475) was due to inflation, and that non-inflation component
likely will evaporate away in the monthly revisions ahead. The 0.41% monthly
gain in September industrial production was due largely to prior-period
downside revisions. Nonetheless, as reported, third-quarter 2012 industrial
production showed the first quarterly contraction for the series since the
end of the “recession” in second-quarter 2009.
“Adjusted to pre-Clinton (1990) methodology,
annual SGS-Alternate CPI inflation rose from roughly 5.2% in August to 5.5%
in September, while the 1980-based measure rose from about 9.3% in August to
9.6% in September, versus 9.0%.
“The chances for sustainable, real
(inflation-adjusted) gains in retail sales remain nil, where the consumer
lacks adequate income growth and credit availability to fund ongoing
increases in real consumption.
“Headline September 2012 industrial production
reflected a third-quarter 2012 quarterly decline, even in official reporting.”
“COMMENTARY NUMBER 476: September CPI,
Industrial Production, Real Retail Sales and Earnings”
John Williams, shadowstats.com, 10/16/2012
Yes, Real U.S. Inflation is already Threshold Hyperinflationary at
9.6%. Main Stream Media, where art thou Main Stream Media?
And we should add, U.S. unemployment claims numbers released October
18th show a dramatic increase in these claims.
As well, real U.S. unemployment is 22.8% per shadowstats.com.
And even China’s Official Growth Rate has dropped under
8% (but to its credit, the MSM did report on these two, but with not much by
way of analysis of the implications).
And Earnings season reports are mixed at best. So, contrary to the
tricks of MSM spin, no Economic Recovery or Market Bull looks likely to
appear in the foreseeable mid or long term future. (See our recent Alerts for
an Analysis of the Short-Term)
Indeed, U.S. Home Ownership Rates are at a 15-year low and still
falling.
In sum, if one believes that all the foregoing will lead to an
Equities Market crash in 2013 as we do, soon it will be time to get short
(just as we recommended in 2008 before The Crash, with profitable
consequences for our subscribers).
But NOW there are Profitable Sectors ripe for investment, which
we expect will be profitable right through any market crash.
Consider that Price Increases for basic food stuffs, and especially
Corn, Wheat, and Soybeans started their dramatic rise well before the drought
in the U.S. and elsewhere. The “Arab Spring” uprisings were
sparked, after all, by Food Price increases.
Lester Brown correctly analyses the Essential Food Supply-Demand
situation when he says:
“Food is the New Oil and Land the New Gold”
The Daily Ticker’s recent cogent analysis of Brown’s
perspective is:
“The United Nations food agency reports that
food prices are rising again, reaching 6-month highs and nearing levels not
[seen] since 2008. Higher prices then spurred food riots in the Middle East
and North Africa, which fueled the Arab Spring.
“There's no sign of widespread food riots now,
but eventually there could be, says Lester Brown, president and founder of
the Earth Policy Institute and author of the new book “Full Planet,
Empty Plates: The New Geopolitics of Food Scarcity.”
““The term 'food unrest' will become
part of our daily vocabulary…” It reflects the imbalance between
the supply of food and demand for food globally.
“On the demand side, says Brown, is a growing
global population -- 80 million more people born each year -- and more people
moving up the food chain, which means as many as 3 billion people are
consuming more "grain intensive products" like meat, milk and eggs.
“On the supply side, severe drought in the
U.S., Russia, the Ukraine, Pakistan and Kazakhstan have crushed grain
harvests at a time when crop yields are stagnating in many countries.
““We're doing everything we know how to
do. We've eliminated nutrient constraints, moisture constraints and we've
designed the most efficient plans we can… there's not much else to do.”
“The impact of all this are higher food prices
in the U.S. and more competition for U.S. grains from China—which
dominates soybean consumption now, says Brown. But in countries like
Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Peru and The Republic of the Congo the effect is
much more dramatic.
““There are now millions of families in
the world that plan foodless days. They can't afford to buy enough food at
inflated prices to maintain their consumption levels," says Brown.
“Food is the New Oil and Land the New Gold:
Lester Brown”
Bernice Napach, Daily Ticker, 10/5/2012
So we continue to be bullish on the Essential Food Commodities Sector
going forward, and have made recommendations designed to profit from this. We
recently recommended a Fertilizer Company stock (trading at just over
40¢/share) with tremendous profit potential, for example. (See Note 2
and 3 below regarding specific Recommendations)
Also we are Bullish going forward on certain commodities especially
those which China uses and has the resources to purchase (as compared
with Bangladesh, say, with relatively little Purchasing Power). China is in a
position to limit, but not prevent, any Global Economic slowdown. It has over
$3 Trillion in foreign currency reserves and other Assets. And with its GDP
growth is officially still in the healthy 7% range. And just last month its
retail sales were up 14%.
And of course there is one commodity that the Chinese are leading the
way in Buying, and that all should buy more of on Dips – Physical Gold.
It is a superb Inflation and Wealth Preserve.
And we also agree that it is unlikely Silver will be pushed below $30
an ounce either. In sum, the upside is Tremendous for both these Monetary
Metals, Trumping the “Tricks” of inadequate MSM and Official
“News” reporting via independent information sources, is the road
to Profitable Treats.
Best regards,
Deepcaster
October 18, 2012
Note 1: We encourage those who
doubt the scope and power of Overt and Covert Interventions by a
Fed-led Cartel of Key Central Bankers and Favored Financial Institutions to
read Deepcaster’s December, 2009, Special Alert containing a summary
overview of Intervention entitled “Forecasts and December, 2009 Special
Alert: Profiting From The Cartel’s Dark Interventions - III” and
Deepcaster’s July, 2010 Letter entitled "Profit from a Weakening
Cartel; Buy Reco; Forecasts: Gold, Silver, Equities, Crude Oil, U.S. Dollar
& U.S. T-Notes & T-Bonds" in the ‘Alerts Cache’ and
‘Latest Letter’ Cache at www.deepcaster.com. Also consider the
substantial evidence collected by the Gold AntiTrust Action Committee at
www.gata.org, including testimony before the CFTC, for information on
precious metals price manipulation. Virtually all of the evidence for
Intervention has been gleaned from publicly available records.
Deepcaster’s profitable recommendations displayed at www.deepcaster.com
have been facilitated by attention to these “Interventionals.”
Attention to The Interventionals facilitated Deepcaster’s recommending
five short positions prior to the Fall, 2008 Market Crash all of which
were subsequently liquidated profitably.
Note 2: The $US dropped nearly
200 basis points at one point in the last three weeks. No surprise since the
Fed’s U.S. Dollar-Destructive Q.E. to Infinity Action, coupled with the
ECB’s Similar Action the week before, boosted the Euro vis-à-vis
the Dollar, as we earlier Forecast. The very recent $US bounce does not
change its weakening Trend.
This Debauchery of the $US weakens its Purchasing
Power and thus increases Burdens on the agonized disappearing Middle Class.
The Bernanke claim that buying $40 billion per month
in Mortgage Backed Securities would Stimulate the Economy and help the
Housing Market is just a Fictitious Cover Story. In fact, it is just another
Gift to the Mega-Banks who hold Underwater Paper, and to Wall Street which
proceeded to rally on The Fed-sugared High.
Both the Continuous Commodities Index which show
Average Annual Price Inflation of 15% and the Real Inflation Number (9.64%
per year from shadowstats.com) reveal Serious Inflation is with us and it
Intensifying.
And Especially Food Price Inflation.
To increase Yields, Farmers increasingly employ
Fertilizer.
And a recent Reco – a Fertilizer Producer
– was trading near its 52 week low at under 40¢ per share when we
first recommended it. It has moved up nicely since we recommended you buy in.
But it has such great potential that we raise our original “buy
under” price to 45¢ per share.
To see our recent Buy Reco aimed at Profiting from
the Fed’s Inflation Rocket, read Deepcaster’s recent Alert,
“Buy Reco (under 40¢/share) to Ride Inflation Rocket; Forecasts:
U.S. Dollar/Euro, U.S. T-Notes, T- Bonds, & Interest Rates, Gold, Silver,
Crude Oil, & Equities,” recently posted in ‘Alerts
Cache’, on deepcaster.com.
Note 3: “Debauch – to dissipate; to corrupt morally; to lead away
from excellence or virtue; to reduce the value, quality, or excellence
of…”
The Fed’s U.S. Dollar-Destructive Q.E. to
Infinity Action, coupled with the ECB’s Similar Action the week before,
boosted the Euro vis-à-vis the Dollar, as we earlier Forecast.
But both Actions Guaranteed Accelerating Price
Inflation and thus Deepcaster recommends a Buy Reco (trading around a mere
$2.50 per share when we recommended it) to ride that Inflation Rocket.
This Debauchery of the $US weakens its Purchasing
Power and thus increases Burdens on the agonized disappearing Middle Class.
The Bernanke claim that buying $40 billion per month
in Mortgage Backed Securities would Stimulate the Economy and help the
Housing Market is just a Fictitious Cover Story. In fact, it is just another
Gift to the Mega-Banks who hold Underwater Paper, and to Wall Street which
proceeded to rally on a Fed-sugared High. And, of course, it is a
pre-election Gift to President Obama.
Important Consequences will ensue.
To see the Great Profit Potential flowing from this
QE and another recent Buy Reco aimed at Profiting from it, read
Deepcaster’s recent Alert, “Surmounting Debauchery with Profit;
Buy Reco to ride Inflation Rocket; Forecasts: U.S. Dollar/Euro, U.S. T-Notes,
T- Bonds, & Interest Rates; Gold, Silver, Crude Oil; Equities,”
recently in ‘Alerts Cache’ at www.deepcaster.com.
DEEPCASTER LLC
www.deepcaster.com
DEEPCASTER FORTRESS
ASSETS LETTER
DEEPCASTER HIGH POTENTIAL SPECULATOR
Wealth Preservation
Wealth Enhancement
|