Close X Cookies are necessary for the proper functioning of 24hGold.com. By continuing your navigation on our website, you are accepting the use of cookies.
To learn more about cookies ...
EnglishFrench

U.S. Dollar, Gold Implications of Election

IMG Auteur
Published : November 12th, 2012
333 words - Reading time : 0 - 1 minutes
( 5 votes, 3.6/5 )
Print article
  Article Comments Comment this article Rating All Articles  
0
Send
0
comment
Our Newsletter...
FOLLOW : Eurozone, Gold

 

 

 

 

Alia iacta est! As networks projected an Obama victory, there was a sea of red: the dollar is down versus currencies and gold. As pundits will shift the focus on the fiscal cliff, the market appears firmly focused on what may be more relevant: an Obama win favors a continuation of the current easy money policy. Had Romney won, Fed Chair Bernanke would have become a lame duck, undermining the credibility of the Fed's commitment to keep interest rates low way beyond the end of Bernanke's term in early 2014. With this uncertainty removed, the Fed's increased emphasis on employment is here to stay. The market rewards this certainty by bidding up gold, selling off the dollar versus all major currencies.


We don't believe the fiscal cliff is similarly important: in our "worst-case" scenario, the "cliff" will take place; however, once tax increases and spending cuts have taken effect, Republicans may then agree to cut taxes, thereby keeping their promise not vote for tax increases. While the drama may be worth watching, the market impact may be limited. Note, though, the budget deficit would still exceed 3% before factoring in an economic slowdown. Yet, we won't have come a step closer to entitlement reform. Entitlement reform is unlikely to happen, as we believe the only language policy makers listen to is that of the bond market.


Keep in mind, however, that testing the patience of the bond market in the U.S. might be more dangerous than in the Eurozone: the U.S., unlike the Eurozone, has a significant current account deficit. To a significant extent, foreigners finance the deficit by buying U.S. bonds. Should the bond market impose reform on policy makers in the U.S. by selling off bonds, the implications for the U.S. dollar might be far more severe than they have been for the euro.


As we all hope for the best, we would like to point out to that hope is not a good policy, neither for politicians, nor for investors.



 

 

<< Previous article
Rate : Average note :3.6 (5 votes)
>> Next article
Axel Merk is the President and CIO of Merk Investments, manager of the Merk Funds. An authority on currencies, he is a pioneer in the use of strategic currency investing to seek diversification. Axel Merk is a sought after speaker and author on topics ranging from the economy, gold and currencies to sustainable wealth and personal finance, as well as a regular guest and contributor to the business media around the world. Mr. Merk manages the Merk Hard and Asian Currency Funds and co-manages the Merk Absolute Return Currency Fund and the Merk Currency Enhanced U.S. Equity Fund. He holds a B.A. in Economics (magna cum laude) and a M.Sc. In Computer Science from Brown University.
WebsiteSubscribe to his services
Latest comment posted for this article
Be the first to comment
Add your comment
Top articles
Latest Comments
Here We Go Again: Banks Are Impl...
02:27sonora69
What is going to happen NEXT Monday? The Shanghai markets are closed all this week for the Lunar New Year. Monday morning ( or Sunday night U.S. t...
First Report since April, 2014
05 FebAndy_K1
Jason, One of your articles written way back is one of the reasons I started paying attention to silver and shortly thereafter started to ...
Something has Changed in Gold St...
06 Febneville
No nothing strange has happened in GOLD stocks....absolutely nothing.....The fact of the matter is that you byrne have been playing the man and...
The Revisionist Theory and Histo...
05 Febovertheedge
"The key is in the hand of the U.S. government. It is the same key that was used to lockthe U.S. Mint to silver in 1873, and to gold sixty years la...
First Report since April, 2014
05 FebS W.1
Here I was just 2 days ago thinking whatever happened to that evangelical silver guy. Low and behold up he springs, like some spirit from the g...
LBMA Silver “Price”: A Perfect S...
03 FebS W.
There is no doubt that the Comex can be used as a casino for those who want to trade Silver up/or down or maybe some just wish to take a small punt...
LBMA Silver “Price”: A Perfect S...
30 JanOzSILV1
Bron refuses to EVER admit this market is a Casino and the disconnect between Paper and Physical is a big clue to this
LBMA Silver “Price”: A Perfect S...
30 JanS W.
Usually I enjoy Bron's take on things,but to be perfectly honest, I can't understand 95% of what he his on about here. I get the feeling that h...
Most commented articlesFavoritesMore...
World PM Newsflow
ALL
GOLD
SILVER
PGM & DIAMONDS
OIL & GAS
OTHER METALS
Mining Company News
Lara Expl.(Cu-Zn-Au)LRA.V
Revised Resource Estimate Report Filed for Maravaia Copper Gold Deposit
CA$ 0.33+3.13%Trend Power :
Corporate news
Black HillsBKH
Black Hills reports 4Q loss
US$ 51.64-2.75%Trend Power :
Corporate news
Kinder Morgan(Oil)KMP
Midstream Companies Were above the 20-Day Moving Averages
US$ 102.03+1.98%Trend Power :
Corporate news
Kinder Morgan(Oil)KMP
Midstream Companies Were above the 20-Day Moving Averages
US$ 102.03+1.98%Trend Power :
Corporate news
Devon Energy(Ngas-Oil)DVN
Gasoline Inventories Rose Last Week despite Fall in Production
US$ 21.25-1.76%Trend Power :
Corporate news
United States Steel(Fe-Sn)X
U.S. Steel (X) States Ratification of Labor Agreements
US$ 6.83-3.53%Trend Power :
Corporate news
Black HillsBKH
4:34 pm Black Hills Corp beats by $0.04, misses on revs; guides FY16 EPS below consensus
US$ 51.64-2.75%Trend Power :
Corporate news
Black HillsBKH
Black Hills Corp. Reports 2015 Fourth Quarter and Full Year Results
US$ 51.64-2.75%Trend Power :
Corporate news
Transcanada PipelinesTRP.TO
TransCanada to Sign Substantial Agreement to Benefit Québec Economy
CA$ 48.65+0.16%Trend Power :
Corporate news
Devon Energy(Ngas-Oil)DVN
4Q15 Crude Oil Prices: Fallout for the Energy Sector and SPY
US$ 21.25-1.76%Trend Power :
Corporate news
Comments closed