In 2008, the majority of Americans voted for
“change,” and in some ways, they got it. They received a heavier dose of
collectivism in the form of Obamacare, but in addition, they received an even
heavier dose of “more of the same.”
Mister Obama did not put an end to Guantanamo
as he promised. And, although, he did remove troops from Iraq, he expanded
America’s military adventures overall, invading numerous sovereign nations.
As for his promise to come down hard on the
sworn enemies of democrats – the evil usurpers on Wall Street – he instead dug
in deeper. His Treasury Secretaries were banking insiders, not the “reformers”
that had been anticipated.
Many who had voted for Mister Obama were deeply
disappointed. Under him, Government had grown, warfare had expanded, the
economy worsened and Wall Street became even fatter than before.
In 2016, Americans, in large part, sought the
selfsame changes – less central government control, less overseas aggression
and a reigning-in of Wall Street and banks. But to achieve these ends, voters
switched sides once again and voted for a Republican, one who boldly committed
to “drain the swamp.”
So, what are the odds that they’ll receive
those changes? Let’s have a look.
When a new leader is elected, the best first
assumption to make is that his campaign promises probably had little or no
relationship to his actual intentions. More likely, his intentions will be to
continue to pander to the Deep State and those that helped him to get elected.
Therefore, it’s always a good idea, in any
country, to pay attention to the new leader’s choice as his posse. The US
president-elect has been active in choosing the gunslingers who will ride with
him into Washington and the choices may provide an early warning as to who the
new president really intends to be.
So, first off would be his closest advisors –
his Chief of Staff and his Chief Strategist. Mister Trump’s choices,
respectively, are Reince Priebus and Stephen Bannon. Mister Bannon is a Goldman
alumnus. In addition, Gary Cohn, Goldman president, has been chosen as director
of the National Economic Council. By any measure, the cabinet will be somewhat
of an extension of Goldman.
Mister Trump railed against Wall Street during
his campaign and vilified his opponent on Twitter, stating, “
Hillary will never reform Wall Street. She is owned by
Wall Street.” His supporters had every reason to expect that he would prove to
be the reformer they hoped for, yet his choices above suggest that that’s not
the plan.
This likelihood is further enforced
by his choice of Steve Mnuchin as Treasury Secretary, who spent seventeen years
at Goldman. His choice for Commerce Secretary is Wilbur Ross, a billionaire
investor who is also unlikely to emerge as an advocate for reform.
As to whether warfare will be
diminished in the coming administration, Mister Trump has stated clearly, in
reference to ISIS, that he intends to “bomb the shit out of ‘em.” (No
uncertainty there.) His choice for national Security Advisor is Lt. Gen.
Michael Flynn, whose primary focus is major aggression against Islamists. His
choice for Secretary of Defense is Gen. James Mattis, who has declared his
desire to invade Iran. In addition, Mike Pompeo, who also favours an invasion
of Iran, has been selected as head of the CIA. These choices are not likely to
sit comfortably with Mister Putin, with whom the president elect suggests he
will enjoy a good relationship. Nor will it sit well with the many throughout
the world who already feel the US has gone far beyond its limit in seeking to
police the world. Rather than back off from the dreaded Wolfowitz Doctrine, the
choices of Cabinet members, taken collectively, suggest a continuation of the foreign
boondoggles that began in 2001.
The one departure may be in the
important position of Secretary of State, with Rex Tillerson, a lifetime
employee of Exxon, who has developed good relations with Russia and opposes
government regulation of business. He may be the one pick that reflects Mister
Trump’s campaign claims. Still, Mister Tillerson falls right in line with the
ever-expanding corporatist relationship extant in the US government.
Finally, those who hope that Trump
will reverse the trend of the Deep State’s near-total control over the US will
be disappointed not only by the choice of Mike Pompeo for the CIA, but of Trump
campaigner and establishment insider Jeff Sessions as Attorney General.
None of the above guarantees that the voters who chose
Mister Trump will soon be experiencing buyer’s remorse, but the indicators that
Americans may find themselves out of the pan and into the fire are significant.
There’s an old saying that, “the more
things change, the more they stay the same,” and the lineup of new players
above suggests that that may well be the case in the next administration.
Meanwhile, not only the US, but the entire world will be holding its collective
breath over the coming months. The new president is less likely to spend as
much time on the golf course as his predecessor. He’s far more likely to hit
the road running. The question will be in what direction he chooses to run. His
choices for Cabinet suggest that that direction might have less relationship to
his campaign rhetoric and more relationship to the ongoing Deep State
programme. To be sure, his clear choice of Washington insiders for so many of
his primary Cabinet positions informs us that the swamp will not, in fact, be
drained. Big Business, the military industrial complex and Big Banks will
dominate the Trump cabinet.
Whatever the world will be treated to
under the new American presidency, the words of Neil Innes ring true: “No matter
who you vote for, the government always gets in.”
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Jeff Thomas is British and resides in the Caribbean. The son of an economist and historian, he learned early to be distrustful of governments as a general principle. Although he spent his career creating and developing businesses, for eight years, he penned a weekly newspaper column on the theme of limiting government. He began his study of economics around 1990, learning initially from Sir John Templeton, then Harry Schulz and Doug Casey and later others of an Austrian persuasion. He is now a regular feature writer for Casey Research’s International Man (http://www.internationalman.com) and Strategic Wealth Preservation in the Cayman Islands.
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The author is not affiliated with, endorsed or sponsored by Sprott Money Ltd. The views and opinions expressed in this material are those of the author or guest speaker, are subject to change and may not necessarily reflect the opinions of Sprott Money Ltd. Sprott Money does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, timeliness and reliability of the information or any results from its use.
