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1.The pressure on the US stock market continues to
grow.Please click here now. Note my red
annotations on this key S&P500 earnings chart.
2.With QE gone, rate hikes on the horizon, wage pressures
growing, and the business cycle peaking, it's a "no brainer"
that US corporate earnings are disintegrating.
3.Also, the ongoing American government attempts at
regime change in the Mid-East have turned into a nightmare.It's likely just a
matter of time before a horrific attack on American soil causes another
911-style US stock market crash.
4.The US stock picker can do well, even in a down market,
but the focus for the index investor needs to be China and India, with
some caveats.
5.Please click here now.This Dow Jones chart
compares the price action of Chinese A shares, where Chinese gamblers
operate, to the Hong Kong H shares market that I focus on.
6.Price to earnings ratios on the A shares market are the
highest of any major market in the world, and they are the lowest for the H
shares market.Clearly, Hong Kong has barely "yawned" over
the past few weeks.
7.It's important for the Western gold community to
understand that China is home to the world's biggest gambling community.The
average Chinese A shares investor holds a stock for about two to three weeks.
Then they sell it, and take another gamble.
8.In the West, this magnitude of gambling is unheard of
and difficult to conceptualize, but it's nothing out of the ordinary in
China.To keep the gamblers reasonably happy at the tables, the PBOC
(Chinese central bank), Chinese brokerages (bookies in suits?), and the
country's sovereign wealth fund have all recently committed various types of
support to the A shares market.
9.I make such large dividends from my Chinese H shares
that capital gains are irrelevant. The bottom line is that the A
shares market is a fabulous casino for the world's biggest gamblers, while
the H shares offer value-oriented Western investors outstanding long term
value for conservative investors.
10.What about gold?Well, please click here now.That's the seasonal
gold futures chart, courtesy of Dimitri Speck.I've highlighted the typical
"triple bottoming action" that tends to occur in the June -
August timeframe.
11.Please click here now. That's the daily gold
chart.I've highlighted the seasonal price action on it. This year, the gold
chart looks like it came out of a seasonal chart textbook.Gold made a
low in mid-June, briefly rallied, and has declined, in typical seasonal
manner, into the first week of July.
12.Another short rally can be expected from "about
now".That rally should be followed by a slow decline into a final
seasonal low in the first week of August.
13.There's more good news for gold investors.Please click here now. This spectacular chart
from Saxo Bank shows the action of leveraged hedge funds on the
COMEX.Conspiracy buffs often refer to it as the "CRIMEX",
partly because a lot of the trades put on by banks classified as "commercial"
traders appear to be more speculative than commercial.
14.Regardless, the Saxo chart is a contrarian gold
investor's friend.I've highlighted the peaks and troughs of hedge fund buying
with green and gold circles, and done the same thing with the gold price.
15.It's clear that the funds have been major gold
buyers at market highs, and major gold sellers at market lows.Right now,
the funds are holding a record short position, just as gold tends to make a
major seasonal low!
16.Please click here now.Fans of central bank
action in the gold market should repeatedly read this key document from Yao
Yudong of the PBOC.Note the critical importance he assigns to gold for the
internationalization of the renminbi (yuan).Of the seven key points Yao
makes, two of them focus directly on gold.
17.Gold can play a key role in solving the global
liquidity problems that will occur in the expanding sovereign debt
crisis.Western media focuses on the role of government, committees, and
banks.China focuses on the role of gold.As more socialist governments
get elected around the world, I suspect China's focus on gold will be the one
ultimately chosen by the rest of the world.
18.Government committees can't even handle the Greek
sovereign debt crisis.How will they handle a Spanish crisis, an Italian
crisis, a Portugal crisis, and, ultimately, an American crisis?
19.Please click here now. That's the daily
silver chart.Silver looks better than gold right now, but rallies and
declines are ultimately determined by gold itself.As with gold, silver
investors probably need just another month of patience, before the good times
begin to roll!
20.Attention gold stock enthusiasts, please click here now. This Goldcorp daily
chart is very important, for a number of reasons.
21.First, Goldcorp is the largest holding in the GDX
ETF.It has swooned while competitors like Agnico Eagle and Newmont have
rallied.I think that's about to change, and so does Swiss monster bank
Credit Suisse.
22.Their analysts have just issued a $24 target for
Goldcorp, and have rated it "outperform".From a technical
perspective, amateur chartists may tend to think the recent decline below the
late December lows in the $16.77 area was a "breakdown".
23.Support and resistance zones are not "black
and white" affairs.Goldcorp appears to be successfully testing the
December lows, and the enormous bull wedge pattern puts the stock in sync
technically, with the fundamental analysis from Credit Suisse analysts.
24.Please click here now.That's the daily GDX
chart.Note the great position of my 14,7,7 Stochastics series oscillator, at
the bottom of the chart.If Goldcorp begins to rally, and I think it will, GDX
could stage a powerful rally, even in the face of a modest seasonal decline
in the gold price!
Special Offer For Website Readers: Please send me an Email to freereports4@gracelandupdates.com and I'll send you my free "Gimme the gold, and gimme the
cash!" report. I highlight key gold stocks poised to dramatically
increase their cash flow, which would excite global money managers.I
highlight my key buy and sell points for five of these great stocks!
Thanks!
Cheers
st
Stewart Thomson
Graceland Updates
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Risks, Disclaimers, Legal
Stewart Thomson is no longer an investment advisor. The
information provided by Stewart and Graceland Updates is for general
information purposes only. Before taking any action on any investment, it is
imperative that you consult with multiple properly licensed, experienced and
qualified investment advisors and get numerous opinions before taking any
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