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There are more Trump Towers being erected by certain
indexes (ref. Uncle Buck�s pants tent noted yesterday in an HUI update).
As an aside, say what you will about the man, but the name and the persona
are a natural for we financial writers and others not tasked to be sensitive
about politics or politicians. I mean, how much fun could one
make of Obama, a person who comes across as dignified and idealist?
Bush was a little better, but even he was no Trump. The Clintons?
Getting warmer. But Trump is a new thing all together, almost
transcendent; more concept than man. I like this, speaking as a writer.
Love it, actually.
On a more serious note, I think he is eventually going to be seen in a
lesser light, as the true believers who thrust him upon their tired shoulders
find out that promises are one thing and reality is quite another; if
anything, he will deliver inflation, which adversely affects� anyone?
Bueller?� the middle and lower classes. Asset owners � like Trump
� always win and those who go paycheck to paycheck, always lose in
inflationary/reflationary regimes. So if the hype proves true and exported
jobs are repatriated, roads, bridges and walls are erected, tax breaks for
big corporations are implimented and yet more deficit spending is enacted, it
is not the true believers who are going to benefit.
Off the stump, let�s look at SPX. It has made what qualifies as a
successful test of the SMA 200 and a �higher low� to June, which had been our
ultimate bull/bear market parameter. The Dow has already made a new
high while big tech is suffering a case of Trumpitis AKA �cheap assembly
jobs repatriation� fears. So it will be important to watch the big
Nasdaq 100 companies along with the Semiconductors to see if their negative
divergences persist. SPX meanwhile, is dwelling at resistance right at
the would-be �bull doorway� around 2160 (Dow�s Trump Tower is by the way, well
into all-time highs).
 
In the spirit of the �little guy� who voted for Trump we have the �little
guy� index of stocks, the Russell 2000 Small Caps index, sporting a major
Trump Tower of his own.
Looking at a couple leadership charts, we see that RUT-SPX has snapped
back to the 2016 uptrend channel. I don�t buy it. The post-2013
downtrend channel still controls this indicator. Small Caps are not the
place to be relative to Large Caps, at least not yet. What they are is
higher risk.
Back to our leader of leaders (post-2012), the Semiconductors are taking a
much needed break in leadership, which is still very positive, overall.
As we have been noting in NFTRH, these were over done with �come lately�
momentum and needed to cool down.
Semis have by the way, made a big picture breakout vs. big tech and this
will be an interesting relationship to keep an eye on. But not all
Semis are created equal. There is Semi equipment, materials and
specialty/mobile vs. PC oriented chips within the general constellation of
items.
Back to the broad US market view, while we can only cover its technicals,
sentiment, indicators and macro fundamentlas in detail in the weekend report,
the VIX has been sent back to a troubling position if you are a complacent
bull sporting a mental Trump Tower of your own. As noted in an NFTRH
update yesterday�
�One concern I do have in that regard is that the VIX got destroyed on the
euphoria, all the way back to trend. It begs caution on the whole
shootin� match in that people went from manic fear to comatose comfort in a
nanosecond.�
Happy Veteran�s Day to all who have served the country. Here is hoping
that as part of what is sure to be a Trump focus on building up an already
bloated weapons arsenal, Veterans Affairs get some of the pie as well.
Juxtapose the massive spending on killing machines with the greatly lacking
spending on the needs of veterans and hope that Trump towers above his
predecessors in this regard. I won�t hold my breath.
NFTRH.com and Biiwii.com
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