When HODL becomes GTFO, what is your exit plan, and how long will it take to execute?

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Published : August 13th, 2018
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Category : Crisis Watch

"You know, fighting in a basement offers a lot of difficulties. Number one being, you're fighting in a basement."

- Lt. Aldo Raine 

 

Like most libertarians, private property ownership and personnel security are two passions of mine where we all clearly benefit from always having an exit plan.  

This article probably does not cover anything professional traders and old mobsters don't fully grok, but dilettantes and newbies will certainly benefit from either developing or reviewing their exit points and expected latency for each and every position. Please understand that heading for the exits is always risky!  The retreat is when most of the casualties of war occur, as explained in the excellent book, On Killing: The Psychological Cost of Learning to Kill in War and Society, by Lt. Col. Dave Grossman.  We haven't made any profit until we close out the trade, and when we do not work to mitigate our losses then twenty years of a building wealth can be destroyed by a bad divorce. 

Exit plans often take the form of if/then statements.  For example:

  • Investments - If the price XYZ doubles, then I will sell half, and pray it is the worst decision I ever made
  • Relationships - If he hits me just once, then I will move out and file for divorce
  • Residency - If martial law is instituted, then we are leaving the country
  • Terminal illness - If I require life support for more than two weeks, then kiss me and pull the plug
  • Home security - If the alarm goes off in the middle of the night, do not turn on the lights, roll out of bed, grab the Benelli, and take cover

Sure, like Mike Tyson says, "Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the mouth."   However, the planning process allows us to identify potential problems when we still have time to solve them.  As Benjamin Franklin said, "If you fail to plan, you are planning to fail!"

Let's say that you followed my guide to buying Bitcoin and losing it in a boating accident, and you are still using Coinbase to buy and hypothetically sell BTC, God forbid, or have linked your account to GDAX.  What is your maximum daily sell amount in dollars, and how does that relate to the size of your account?  Do you know?

GDAX limits for deposits, withdrawals, trades, and balances

Withdrawal: $10,000/day for individual accounts and $50,000/day for institutional accounts. To be considered for higher withdrawal limits, please go to your Settings within GDAX and click "Increase Limits."

https://support.gdax.com/customer/portal/articles/2426595

If your limit is $10,000, that is about one bitcoin per day, today, but may represent only a fraction of a bitcoin very soon.  If you have 10 BTC in the account, it could take you more than a week to close the position.  This is obviously not a good situation and reminds me of the great scene from the film, Inglorious Basterds, when Brad Pitt's character, Lt. Aldo Raine and his team are doing some exit planning for an upcoming rendez-vous in enemy territory...

I won't spoil the movie for you, but I will say that Aldo ain't stupid, and the exit from the basement is limited.

The beautiful mrs_horseman accompanied me for dinner last weekend at a restaurant, and because we have been together so long, and have trained together, we each know exactly where we are going to sit, where the exits are, and exactly how we would vaminos in the event that we choose to do so in a hurry or under duress.  We don't even need to talk about it anymore.  The entire discussion is non verbal.  

Exit plans are useful in a wide variety of circumstances.  For example, if you commute into a major city, or live in one, then it is probably a good idea to have a plan to get the fuck out if the shit hits the fan and when everyone else is freaking out.

To this end, please consider my articles...

Elevated freeways are perfect kill zones

I have had several requests from friends to review the self-rescue gear we carry in our Get Back Home (GBH) bags, probably due to the recent but not unexpected flooding we have had this spring. 

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-10/elev...re-perfect-k...

...and...

What you gonna do when the bombs start to fall?

Let's imagine for a few minutes that the ongoing-global-currency war and proxy wars somehow, unexpectedly, blow up into a world war directly involving you, wherever it is that you live.  Specifically, imagine that one side is able to achieve surprise, and as you sit at your desk, today, the power and all telecommunications go out without warning.  Within 15 minutes, everyone notices a large amount of what is obviously military aircraft activity, evidenced by sonic booms, and soon there are several very bright flashes on the horizon in the direction of the closest military base. 

The odds of this actually happening are not zero. 

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-22/w...hen-bombs-st...

If you are like many Americans and most or all of your liquid wealth is kept in the possession of your bank, then a little exit planning is surely in order, considering the prevalence of this sort of thing:

target="_blank"

Systems down all Thursday afternoon for multiple banks in Texas

For example, some banks and credit unions in Texas were giving hand-written receipts for deposits, and limiting cash withdrawals to $300!  Other banks were not making wire transfers for Friday payrolls of corporate customers.

target="_blank"

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-0...ursday-after...

Unlike enjoying dinner in a nice restaurant, some positions may take a long time to Assess, Design, Develop, Implement, and Evaluate good exit strategies.  One of my friends tells a story of working in Nigeria, and the very complicated exit plan he and his associates had to get the fuck out of out of Lagos, involving ropes, swimming, sailing, and satellites.  Along those lines...

target="_blank"

hedgeless_horseman's annual Twelve Days of Christmas shopping list for the ZeroHedge readers in your life

2) Nigel Calder's Cruising Handbook: A Compendium for Coastal and Offshore Sailors $39

If ever someone's world turns to complete shit, and you want them to know which sailboat to beg, barter, or steal from the marina, and how to sail it, then this book is the ticket.

target="_blank"

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-1...annual-twelv...

As you ponder what positions in your life could use a little exit planning, I invite you to enjoy a little music.

Peace, prosperity, liberty, and love,

-h_h

 

Data and Statistics for these countries : Georgia | Nigeria | All
Gold and Silver Prices for these countries : Georgia | Nigeria | All
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