Asian traditions say autumn & spring. But is
in-between the best time to buy gold at low prices...?
CALL IT superstitious, call it good
marketing, or call it tradition, writes Adrian Ash at BullionVault.
But where India has Akshaya Tritiya in spring and Diwali
in autumn, China then has Lunar New Year – the most 'auspicious' time of year
for people to buy gold.
The best time for gold traders, however, is different. And
it may be due in some part to those same religious and astrological dates
observed by gold buyers in Asia.
"Sell in May, come back on St.Leger's Day,"
claims stockbroking lore in the City of London. That old chestnut basically
tells clients and staff to take a long summer vacation, starting with the
Whitsun Bank Holiday and returning after the year's last big horse-race
meeting. Wouldn't want to disturb your broker from studying the form, after
all.
If you like such things, the data suggest mid-summer can
indeed be a good time to buy gold at a discount. Better certainly than
relying on that old stockbroker's saying for trying to trade in and out of
the FTSE share index.
Folklore says the gold market tends to see a 'summer
lull', with prices softening as trading volumes dry up amid the showers and
downpours of May-August. We have written about this pattern before. Many...many...times before. Like, loads.
Our lack of imagination aside, you might link this lull in
prices to the 'closed period' of Indian demand (better known as
'shradh', when new investments and ventures, including marriages, become
unlucky on Hindu calendars).
But take the Hindu festival of Akshaya Tritiya – an
auspicious day for new ventures, falling in late-April in 2015. It has become
a major date for gold retailers in India, the world's No.1 jewelry market.
Getting ready for this year's festive demand, and thanks to easier import
rules, India's wholesalers took in twice as much gold this March as during the same
month last year.
April's gold imports then showed a 60% annual jump,
totalling a further 85 tonnes on top of March's 125 inflow.
That's a lot of gold. It nearly equals one in every two
ounces of gold mined worldwide over those same two months. And re-worked into
bracelets and necklaces, that surge of Indian gold imports became a 10-20% rise in gold sales on Akshaya Tritiya. Some
retailers even reported a 30% jump.
Fact is, however, "Sales volumes [in 2015] were
higher as Indian prices were lower by 7% year on year," reckons All
India Gems & Jewellery Trade Federation director Bachhraj Bamalwa,
directly attributing the growth in sales to lower prices. US Dollar investors
meantime found gold $100 lower per ounce from Akshaya Tritiya 2014. Sterling prices
were pretty much flat from 12 months ago.
So, whatever drives the gold price, India's festival
demand looks unlikely. Quite the reverse, in fact. By extension, a lack of
good times on Hindu calendars is unlikely to pull prices lower. Indeed, the near-shutdown
in gold imports to India in mid-2013 – due to an effective ban on new inflows
after the record levels seen during the Spring 2013 price crash – coincided
with the metal finding its floor at last roundabout the $1180 mark.
China's retail gold demand also takes a break over the
summer, as do its wholesalers. But if removing this bid to buy gold the
world's heaviest gold-buying market also tracks prices more than setting
them, with Spring 2015's strong export of metal from London through Swiss refiners
onto Asian buyers being "a sign of weakness, not of strength in the market," as Matthew Turner at
Macquarie noted to Bloomberg last month.
None of this is to say Asian household demand doesn't help
form gold prices. But it clearly doesn't (yet) chase it higher at the tops.
Instead, the world's heaviest buyers prefer the dips and plunges created by
Western investment selling. Thus the global market found lots of buyers in
2013, albeit very much cheaper than US and European investors would have
liked as they quit positions built at $1500 and above.
So, back with the seasonal data, might the summer lull in
gold prices come thanks to the summer doldrums in financial markets more
broadly? Perhaps. It is in fact much clearer on the historic data than the
City of London's more famous "Sell in May" folklore for UK
equities. And again, on the data, it has been growing stronger as well.
You can see it here on this chart of average monthly
prices. We've used the median, not the mean, to smooth out the crazier moves
of outlier years. And there, right in the middle of the year, you will see a
'seasonal lull' during mid-summer for both the decade from 1995-2004 and then
again for 2005-2014.
Eight times in the last decade, in fact, the softer prices
of early to mid-summer offered UK investors a chance to buy gold and then
sell it higher at year's end.
That's a much better hit-rate than the old chestnut about
summer being the best time to sit out the London stock market. "Sell in
May and come back on St.Leger's Day" the saying claims. But only 5 times
in the last decade has the FTSE All-Share index of UK stocks closed May
higher than it closed the month of September.
Indeed, if your stock broker repeats that old chestnut to
you this May, you should ask for an invite to his retirement party. (You'll
be paying for it, after all.) Because as you can see on this chart of the
FTSE All-Share's monthly averages, the last time that "Sell in May"
was really true for UK shares was back in 1975-84.
Bottom line? More active investors – looking for the best
time of the year to buy gold at a discount and then sell again at a peak –
might find this seasonal pattern to be useful. But no one gets to trade the
average monthly moves, and history tells us nothing about what will happen
for sure this year.
Just ask those Dollar-gold traders who took profits in
springtime 4 years ago...only to watch the gold price surge to all-time record
highs during the US debt downgrade, Eurozone crisis and then English riots of
summer 2011.
Meantime in India, Akshaya Tritiya hasn't been the best time to buy gold over recent years.
Not according to analysts who miss the point, even if stumbling over the same
seasonal pattern in Rupee prices as UK investors enjoy. Making an auspicious
investment isn't the same as expecting it will turn a profit directly itself.
And besides, buying gold at any time of year has proven pretty smart for Indian
savers over the last few decades anyway.
Gold prices have risen in Rupee terms in 30 of the last 41
years. How auspicious is that when you're trying to save for the future?
