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Around the
year 1650 A.D. the word highwaymen entered our language. It referred to
robbery committed on a public road against travelers. Now we use the phrase
"highway robbery" for which we pay the tolls to travel on modern
day roads. The highwaymen alas are among us and we have elected them. At such
times it would not take much more in the destruction of mining equities to
make investors feel as if they have been seduced by sweet talk and abandoned
to the wolves of Wall Street by latter day highwaymen.
Simply put it
has been one in which the elites have shrugged their collective soldiers,
leaving the rest of us bewitched, bothered and bewildered. There are no safe
havens unless one reaches for the carrot dangled on a stick in the form of
treasuries (TLT) and dollar bills (UUP).
It is as if
investors who have played the game fairly are uneasily realizing they have
been dealt a series of sucker blows from the elites who in essence have fixed
the game. Investors believe that treasuries and cash will protect their
capital. This may be a conclusion founded on quicksand.
 
Many
investors could face significant losses should yields rise in the U.S. as it
has done in Europe. Due to the volatility in the global equity markets,
investors have maxed out their portfolio holdings in cash and U.S.
treasuries.
If bond
prices drop resulting in rising yields we could see a mass flight out of
bonds into the oversold commodities (DBC) and miners (GDX) which are trading
at a record discount to the global equity market. How can so called experts
call a gold bubble (GLD) when gold equities are trading at historically cheap
valuations? Could it be that the real bubble is in the U.S. Treasury market
where investors are actually receiving negative returns?
A growing
fear of the financial system is increasing similar to 1933 when FDR was
elected. Fears that FDR would devalue the currency caused a bank run where
investors withdrew their cash to buy gold. Could something similar be brewing
in Europe with the election of Hollande in France
and Greece threatening to leave the Euro?
We learn that
our elected U.S. officials have indulged in profiting from insider trading
for which we citizens could have done hard time. Imagine buying VISA for $46
and the next day making a handsome profit at $64 on 5 million shares. This
actually happened and continues to occur as a matter of lifestyle for our elected
officials.
Then there is
the chutzpah of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae coming before the public
requesting $1.8 million dollars for a Christmas Bonus for non
performance and downright destruction of a major mortgage institution.
Then there is the $191 million dollar loss in MF Global trading European
Government Bonds. There is still $1.6 billion of client's money missing. Then
we have the wife of Switzerland's central bank chief who went long the U.S.
dollar right before he imposed a cap on the Swiss franc.
Similarly we
had the $2 billion+ carnage experienced by JP Morgan and Jamie Dimon. Here we have a team of the best and brightest
minds on Wall St. screwing up gloriously trying to time the short term. This
may be a cautionary tale for those who try to play the markets in the short
term particularly in the arena of wealth in the earth assets where long term
stratagems pay off in hundreds of percentage points. The MF Global and JP
Morgan (JPM) debacle may be adding to the volatility of the sell off in commodities and mining equities as they may
have had to cover their bad bets in European Sovereign Debt.
What does
this all mean for tax paying investors who are constrained to play according
to the rules. Joe Louis famously said, "You can
run, but you can't hide."
WIth the market covered with crimson yesterday it might
appear that our natural resource selections in gold, silver (SIL) rare earths
(REMX) and uranium (URA) miners are a thin blanket for a cold night. Since
when has wealth in the earth not experienced breathtaking corrections as they
continue in their upward trajectories? Remember there may have been selling
to satisfy a deluge of margin calls.
 
It is folly
to look at the day to day gyrations of our wealth in the earth selections.
There are those critics who might question the absence of risk management in
precious metal selections. They miss the basic point completely. Play that
game with miners at your own risk. Just as swiftly as they go down, so is the
consequent upside. Investing in resource stocks is a risky game. Only the
most disciplined market participants can manage to play the swings
profitably. So hold on for what has been this tumultuous ride. The markets
are swept by waves of fear and distrust of the Western Capitalist System.
Delayed until
2012-2013 will avail us little except postponement of the inevitable. What
was really needed was a plan of attack to bring our debt levels down. One
would've thought that our well payed solons could
have come up with a better solution. Instead, they will be forced to monetize
the debt and pay it off with cheap dollars. Sooner or later, this is
eventually a win-win situation for investors in precious metals and tangible
assets.
Do not underestimate
the intelligence of the investor. Are our elected representatives waiting for
a Tahir Square to take place on American and
European Streets? It is growing late in the game.
The Iranian
situation which we continue to highlight is simmering to a boil. The United
States and its allies Britain and Canada are using the outmoded tactic of
gunboat diplomacy to wag warning fingers at an Iran that ignores us and grows
stronger everyday.
Is this not
an admission by the West that they lack the financial wherewithal to
undertake another military expedition? This is all part in parcel of the
disintegrating situation which lack of leadership and American resolve has
brought us.
Are we facing
the stark reality that the Emperor-America has no clothes? Hopefully, this is
not the case. But the markets are speaking differently. Thus the disconnect between mining equities and bullion. Now
the clarion call is "cash is king" as the herd rushes for what
seems to be the latest safe haven fad.
Of course the
mouse thinks that the cheese will always be there, not realizing that it is
the bait in what may be a fiscal trap. Ergo where do our subscribers go from
here? The answer may be what it has always been from the days of Babylon to
the present...wealth in the earth natural resources which are fungible into
food, clothing and shelter.
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