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Canadian
uranium producers (URA) can now
compete with Kazakhstan, Australia and Russia to sell uranium to China.
Canada produces about 20% of the world's uranium and exports over 80% of
annual production. The fast growing nuclear industry has never been open to
China and will create a boom in the Athabasca Basin for uranium explorers.
 
This deal will
allow Cameco (CCJ),
the largest publicly traded uranium company to deliver 52 million pounds of
uranium to China by 2025. The contract is worth about $2.5 billion in sales.
China is hungry for nuclear with dozens of reactors planning to be built over
the next 10-15 years.
Investors are
well aware that the Megatons to Megawatts agreement between Russia and the
United States expires in 2013. New demand is rising
rapidly as stated by the World Nuclear Association who expects world uranium
consumption to grow and new demand will require double the amount of current
production by 2020.
Cameco and Rio Tinto
(RIO) is predicting a supply
shortage within 18 months. The last time this happened the spot price of
uranium rose to $138 per pound.
Today there are
435 nuclear reactors in operation all over the world. Add to this another 100
nuclear reactors are under construction or on the drawing boards.
Projections
by the World Nuclear Association expects 650 nuclear
reactors over the next twenty years. Saskatchewan, Canada may turn into
"The Next Saudi Arabia" over the next twenty years. Nuclear power
is reemerging as the go to energy source for expanding Asian economies.
Recently, Prime
Minister Harper signed a deal with China that brings almost $3 billion dollars worth of energy supply which includes uranium
from the Athabasca Basin to satisfy China's insatiable hunger for its
expansion into nuclear power. Now may be the right time to look for uranium
explorers in the Basin.
We have
expected to see an increase in Mergers and Acquisition activity in this
region for some time. We observed the transaction by Rio Tinto who outbid Cameco in 2011 for Hathor
Exploration's Roughrider Deposit, Denison (DNN)
and Energy Fuels recently signed a deal to create a large U.S. producer.
Fission Energy (FSSIF) just acquired Pitchstone Exploration for its 13
Athabasca exploration properties. These are all signs that M&A activity
is on the rise.
Uranium stocks
(NLR) have pulled back after a significant rally in the
first quarter and we believe that now may be a good time to look for junior
uranium explorers in the Athabasca Basin.
We believe Rio
Tinto bought out Hathor as a strategic move to gain
a presence in this mining friendly region, free of rising resource
nationalism, geopolitical risk and lower grade uneconomic uranium mines.
Different sources within the Basin are mentioning that the big boys are
looking at potential projects for acquisition or joint ventures.
CITIC Group,
which is a Chinese tentacle, are interested in
uranium explorers in the Athabasca Basin. The interest from them in the
Athabasca Basin is evidenced by the signing of large future supply contracts
with Cameco. The recent spin off of Denison's
Canadian assets specifically its Wheeler River Deposit, (higher grade and
larger than Hathor's Roughrider) partnered with Cameco may be indicating that Denison is setting itself
up as a potential acquisition target.
The big boys
such as Cameco, Rio Tinto, Sovereign Asian Funds
and possibly BHP (BHP) are realizing
that large profits from uranium production will come from the Athabasca
Basin. This is where deposits have grades tens to hundreds of times greater
than conventional projects worldwide.
The majors are
having problems dealing with the ever rising threat of resource nationalism
as exemplified by their experience in Namibia, which is making noises that
they may institute a super tax on miners. We have witnessed the uprising in
Mali and growing Black Empowerment movements in South Africa. Of these
aforementioned entities Rio Tinto and China is finding a warmer welcome in
the mining friendly Athabasca Basin.
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