Why Gold Bulls Should Have Hope

Gold’s robust rally paused for just long enough on Wednesday to discourage bulls — including your editor, who had advised a long position in GDX with a stop-loss far more generous than is typical for a Rick’s Picks trade.  Unfortunately, it wasn’t generous enough to weather the gratuitous swoon shown in the chart (see inset), although it did leave the 1210.50 rally target we’d been using intact. I’ve lowered the target slightly, to 1209.80, to conform to a ‘one-off’ low at 1147.20 that looks likely to produce a more accurate short-term top. The new target can also serve as a minimum upside objective for the near-term; and the more accurate pattern, to set up precise ‘mechanical’ trades in accordance with our simple rules.  Although the trade in GDX didn’t work, a ‘mechanical’ buy in the futures at the green line manifestly did. We’ll file the results in the backs of our trading brains, lest we feel intimidated by whatever treacheries lie ahead. In the meantime, it’s hard not to regard today’s fleeting plunge as other than bullish, since its effect was to plant doubts in the minds of bulls. A rally with a bunch of giddy optimists aboard is not destined for longevity, and that’s why we should be heartened by the nastiness of this morning’s little fooler.