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When oil
was in the limelight, Sprott's Bambrough
and Dimitriadis went for wallflower companies in
beaten-down sectors. Since 2007, the pair has seen striking highs and lows in
natural gas, coal and potash and invested accordingly, infusing companies
with much-needed capital and creating startling profits during sector
upswings. Read on to benefit from the wisdom these two successful fund
managers share in this Energy Report interview and find out where the duo is looking
next for major growth.
The Energy
Report: Much has
happened on the economic, political and financial fronts since your last interview in February 2011. Obama has been reelected, oil is
now at $87 a barrel (bbl) and quantitative easing
is the new normal. Have any of these developments changed your investment
perspective?
Kevin Bambrough: They haven't changed our perspective because we've been prepared for
these events for some time. We view this as a 15- to 20-year trend where
runaway deficits and printing money is the chosen solution central bankers
will provide to the markets. It will ultimately result in the U.S. dollar
losing its reserve currency status and paper money, as we know it, becoming
essentially worthless over time. Real businesses and real assets are what you
should own.
We focus
solely on resources at Sprott Resource Corp. (SCP:TSX) and Sprott
Inc. (SII:TSX) focuses
primarily on resource-related investments. Our long-term strategy is to sell
businesses with strong margins in fairly buoyant sectors that could become
unsustainable and depressed in value over time. We then recycle those
investments into areas of the resource sector that are quite depressed and
have an upside in valuation and margins. At the same time, we focus on
building solid businesses in jurisdictions where we can develop our assets
and create value.
Paul Dimitriadis: We started out in September 2007 with roughly $70
million ($70M) of capital with the idea of building a publicly traded private
equity firm. Over five years, we've compounded capital, net of fees, at
roughly 28% annually, growing the net assets to over $450M during a period
when the resource sector has been extremely volatile and most resource stocks
and the major indexes are down. We're quite proud of that record. We've also
been very active in buying back our shares to increase the net asset value
per share, and have bought back a little over $70M worth over the last five
years, which we're committed to continue doing.
TER: In the broad economic/financial picture, how far
down the road can governments keep kicking this can?
KB: I think the printing is going to continue out of
necessity because governments need to provide funding for their operations.
When governments issue bonds, central banks are the ultimate backstop for
buying them. This process will continue on until investors around the world
stop holding onto bonds or currency as a store of value and decide to own
something more concrete than a promise from a bank or a government
institution.
PD: To follow up on that, over the past 5–10
years, there's been a lifestyle adjustment taking place globally that's being
reflected in the price of real assets. The emerging markets are getting
wealthier and competing for real assets with the
developed economies. We're going to continue seeing the pressure on the EU
and North American economies as the middle class gets squeezed further, while
the emerging economies continue to progress and consume more, putting
additional pressure on the resource pricing.
TER: Maybe we can talk about the individual resource
segments you're interested in at Sprott, starting
with the oil market.
KB: In 2007, when everybody was loving oil at $140/bbl and gas at $10 per thousand cubic feet (Mcf), most resource funds were very heavy in oil and gas.
We went to investing in coal, phosphate and potash. Nobody was really even looking
at phosphate and potash at that time and the coal market was facing
bankruptcy. Sprott Resource stepped in and gave
capital to a company called PBS Coals Ltd. during a very weak time in the
market when we saw a rebound coming. When that rebound came with very high
coal prices in 2008, we took the company public and ultimately sold it. It's
now fully owned by Severstal Russian Steel (SVST:LSE).
Similarly,
we monetized some of our potash and phosphate investments during a lofty
period in that sector during 2009 and reloaded most of our capital into oil
and gas.
TER: What's your view of the oil market now, considering
all the development going on all over the world with new offshore reserves
that are fairly substantial?
PD: There's been a lot of development in unconventional
drilling and development of offshore reserves that were previously difficult
to produce economically. Much of this new production is relatively short life
and expensive, and is putting us on a treadmill just to maintain current global
production rates. Bakken marginal production is
over $80/bbl. Offshore is very expensive, so we're putting a floor under oil
prices at around $80/bbl West Texas Intermediate.
It's going to be difficult to sustain production with these unconventional
barrels that have steep decline rates.
KB: To continue on Paul's point, when the marginal
price goes below that $80/bbl, we'll be buyers
because that price is unsustainable and oftentimes companies will be trading
at very low values to a low oil price. When the price gets high and multiples
tend to expand on optimism, we'll be looking to monetize again. We've been
continually adding to our oil and gas position. We've managed to merge Orion
Oil & Gas Corp. with a company called WestFire
Energy Ltd., and another company we invested in called Galleon Energy Inc.,
which became Guide Exploration Inc. They all came together and now it's
called Long Run
Exploration Ltd. (LRE:TSX). It's a very large oil and gas producer with
significant upside.
PD: Long Run is currently producing around 23,000
barrels of oil equivalent per day, at a roughly 50/50 ratio of oil to gas. It
has an incredible land package of around 600,000 net acres in northern
Alberta and over a billion dollars in tax pools. We're excited about this
because it's incredibly undervalued relative to its peers—probably
30–50% lower than companies of its size. Also, with its huge land
package, we think that the company will be able to grow successfully over the
next few years, principally in the Viking and the Montney.
We're buying the cheap of the cheap and it's a core holding for us.
TER: Are you going to continue to grow Long Run or is it
going to be taken out at some point by somebody larger?
PD: With sovereign funds and state oil companies, you
never know where a bid might come from. But our focus is on building the
company and developing its land position.
KB: An asset needs to be fully valued before we even
consider parting with it because we're very patient, long-term oriented
investors and we can afford to take our time to advance it.
TER: What are your thoughts on natural gas?
KB: The conventional wisdom in 2007 was that the gas
price was going to stay above $10/Mcf. That winter
everyone was concerned that we'd run out of natural gas. Fast-forward
to 2011, when natural gas plummeted to $2/Mcf, and
people were saying it was going to zero because the storage was going to fill
and we wouldn't be able to deal with it. Finally, we had a big rinse-out in
the sector. We continued to invest capital to build a bigger, stronger
company that would be positioned for the rebound. Now we have a more positive
market, and we think it's going to continue to improve. In 2007, the question
was whether we could build enough terminals to import enough gas quickly
enough. Now everyone's talking about exporting it—it's a complete
mirror opposite.
TER: What are your expectations for the coal market?
KB: The coal sector is looking a lot like it did in
2007, when we were buying PBS Coals. It's a very depressed sector and we
haven't begun to see a strong rebound yet. Almost every coal stock has been
crushed back to lows they hadn't seen in years, and we're looking to put
capital to work. We're trying to find the right opportunity, although it may
still be a little early. We're focusing on emerging markets, where we would
like to make long-term investments, buy assets or partner with foreign
entities that want to access fuel sources for their own country. The main key
is to be in a country where we don't have to worry about expropriation or
excessive taxation. That's becoming more difficult, considering all of the
government budget problems all over the world.
TER: Uranium appears to be coming out of the doldrums.
What's your take on the sector?
KB: Despite Fukushima, many large utilities are seeking
to build new nuclear facilities, especially in emerging markets and the
Middle East. It's becoming increasingly evident that there's going to be a
shortfall of uranium production in the coming years as some of the old mines
are depleted. The depressed price doesn't make most new mines attractive
investments, so the sector has been starved for capital for a few years now.
We expect that higher prices will inevitably attract capital to the sector.
The new facilities under construction are going to have to pay up to secure
supply and they're going to have to fund mining projects, which is something
we're actually looking at. We're working with some parties now that want to
fund development projects in order to get offtake
agreements in place.
TER: What uranium price would make uranium mining
projects more economic?
KB: Investment would be much more attractive with
uranium nearer the $75 per pound level. It may take a couple of years to get
there.
TER: How are you playing that market?
PD: Our principal investment in the uranium sector
right now is Virginia
Energy Resources Inc. (VUI:TSX.V), which owns the Coles Hill deposit in Virginia.
It's the largest untapped deposit in the U.S. and it would be an economic
boon to the area, if developed. The big issue is the moratorium on uranium
mining in Virginia, which explains why the stock is so cheap relative to the
project size and economic value. The legislature is going to consider a new
mining law in the near future and we're hopeful it will pass. If it does,
that would obviously revalue this investment, probably making it worth
multiples of what it is right now.
TER: When do you expect to see a legislative decision on
this?
PD: The matter should be examined in the 2013
legislative session.
TER: Are there any private equity deals you're involved
in that will soon be going public?
PD: We don't have any that we're going to be taking
public soon. We just monetized an oil and gas investment called Waseca Energy
for a large win. We're sitting at roughly $115M in gold bullion and $25M in
cash.
KB: Right now we're very focused on getting Sprott Resource's stock trading much closer to its net
asset value. It traded at two times net asset value when we first started the
business, and as low as $0.50 on the dollar during bad times in early 2009.
We've been buying back stock aggressively. We just announced a four
million-share block purchase. We're going to keep doing whatever it takes to
tell our story and attract investors that are interested in sticking with us
for the long run.
TER: What do you see ahead in 2013, and how can
investors profit or protect their assets?
KB: I see more of the same—more deficits, more
printing, more bailing and more volatility. We think that precious metals are
going to do very well in this environment and that investment demand is going
to eventually overwhelm the paper market. In the 1970s, gold went from around
$35 per ounce (oz) up to $850/oz
in 1980. That was a 25-fold increase within 10 years. This gold bull market
started at around $250/oz in 2002 and I'm convinced
that this run will carry a larger magnitude at a higher multiple because
there isn't as much physical gold held by central banks.
The
seventies boom was ended in part by central banks dumping gold onto the
market and leasing out their gold to bullion banks to flood the market in
order to regain stability in the currencies, versus gold. That took interest
rates to double digits all around the world. Now, no government can afford to
raise interest rates because they're already at huge deficits and raising
them would make deficits even larger. Gold's been up every year for the last
10 years but, at some point the doors are going to blow open.
TER: When do you expect mining stocks to perform more in
step with the metals themselves?
KB: I think there's going to be a continued separation
between quality stocks and the more speculative ones. In the early boom in the
gold stocks, almost any stock went up 10- to 20-fold
over a period of 10 years. Some of the bigger ones that had hedges didn't.
The unhedged gold juniors and the exploration
companies were awarded capital with very little discrimination by the
investment community. Now we're starting to see more emphasis on the
companies that could actually produce gold profitably and be free cash flow
generators that become dividend-payers. They make money the old-fashioned
way—they mine it.
TER: Let's end on that positive note. Thanks for
speaking with us today.
KB: Thanks for having us.
PD: Thanks for the opportunity.
Kevin Bambrough founded Sprott Resource
Corp. in September 2007. He is a seasoned financial executive with more than
a decade of investment industry experience and is a recognized leader in the
commodity investing space. Since 2009, he also has served as president of Sprott Inc., one of Canada's leading asset managers,
which has more than $8 billion in assets under management. Between 2003 and
2009, he held a number of positions with Sprott
Asset Management, including market strategist, a role in which he devoted a
significant portion of his time to examining global economic activity,
geopolitics and commodity markets in order to identify new trends and
investment opportunities for Sprott Asset
Management's team of portfolio managers.
Paul Dimitriadis is Chief Operating Officer for Sprott
Consulting and Sprott Resource Corp. He has been
with Sprott since 2007. Dimitriadis
evaluates and structures transactions, coordinates and conducts due diligence
and is involved in the oversight of subsidiaries and managed companies. He
serves on the board of directors of two of Sprott
Resource Corp.'s subsidiaries, Stonegate Agricom Ltd. and Long Run Exploration Ltd. Prior to
joining the Sprott group of companies,
he practiced law at Blake, Cassels & Graydon LLP. Dimitriadis holds
a Bachelor of Laws degree from the University of British Columbia and a
Bachelor of Arts degree from Concordia University.
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DISCLOSURE:
1) Zig Lambo of The
Energy Report conducted this interview. He personally and/or his family
own shares of the following companies mentioned in this interview: None.
2) The following companies mentioned in the interview are sponsors of The
Energy Report: Virginia Energy Resources Inc. Interviews are edited for
clarity.
3) Kevin Bambrough: I personally and/or my family
own shares of the following companies mentioned in this interview: Sprott Resource Corp. and Sprott
Inc. I personally and/or my family am paid by the
following companies mentioned in this interview: Sprott
Resource Corp. and Sprott Inc. I was not paid by
Streetwise Reports for participating in this interview.
4) Paul Dimitriadis: I personally and/or my family
own shares of the following companies mentioned in this interview: Sprott Resource Corp. and Sprott
Inc. I personally and/or my family am paid by the
following companies mentioned in this interview: Sprott
Resource Corp. and Sprott Inc. I was not paid by
Streetwise Reports for participating in this interview.
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