|
More
and more investors are asking this question. Many observers and commentators
have ridiculed this idea as archaic with the conditions that led to the
confiscation being so different as to leave such a possibility as remote as
the return of the dinosaurs.
In this the first part of a series on
the subject we look at the picture that led to the confiscation and look at
factors that caused the confiscation to see if there are reasons why it can
happen again, today!
Above, you will see the actual executive
order in which U.S. citizens lost the right to own gold. From May 1st
1933 until 1974, U.S. citizens could no longer hold gold as a protection
against paper money, which also lost its gold backing at the same time.
Foreign central banks could continue to
exchange the U.S. dollars that came into their possession –known as
Eurodollars for decades—for gold and did so particularly when the U.S.
dollar was devalued and then floated against the gold price in 1971.
Why?
The “why” is critical to our
understanding of the current, global monetary system! There were two distinct
phases to the process that began in 1933.
1. The U.S. monetary and banking
system contributed to a large extent to the depression. As Mr. Ben Bernanke
has aptly demonstrated by his Quantitative Easing, a reduction in the money
supply shrinks economic activity significantly and breeds deflation. After
four years of such shrinkage, it was realized that a huge increase in the
money supply was needed to invigorate the U.S. economy and make assets
preferable to cash. The monetary system was based on the Gold Standard, a
system that set the gold price at a fixed level against the dollar and other
currencies across the developed world.
One gets the wrong perspective if you
look at the gold price as having been subsequently raised as opposed to the
reality that it was the U.S. dollar that was devalued. In an instant, the
money supply of the U.S. was increased by 75% in 1935 when the gold price was
raised from $20 per ounce to $35 per ounce. This was a devaluation of the
dollar. It brought a tsunami of liquidity to the banking system that saw
deposits leave the banks and flow into industry again. We stress that this
was not a gold event, but a money event –gold being money at
the time. As you can see on these dollar notes where gold was an integral
part of the money system then.
2. The second phase of the
confiscation of gold was to place gold under the control of government out of
the hands of private holders, as storm clouds gathered over Europe.
Government was then in a position to control the recovery and direct funds to
where government felt they would be best put to use. Despite the
proliferation of dollars in the system, confidence in it remained high as it
remained linked to gold. The belief that, somehow, this restrained the issue
of money also remained inexplicably strong. So long as confidence remained in
currencies the value of the dollar remained solid.
Had gold been left in the hands of
individuals and private institutions, such an issue of money may well have
led to it being sold for foreign-held gold. This would have defeated the
government’s purpose in devaluing the dollar. The U.S. government had
to confiscate the gold of its citizens to ensure the focused success of the
increase in the money supply.
The success of dollar devaluation and
the “governmentization” of gold was
successful as it fueled a recovery that was also invigorated by export demand
for U.S. goods ahead of the Second World War.
Fixed
Exchange Rates, then “Floating”
An ingredient that is often overlooked
today is that the world back then was a world of fixed exchange rates only. That’s why it took one
government decree to change the quantity of money. That hasn’t changed!
Today, Quantitative Easing does the same.
Chairman Ben Bernanke is a scholar on
those times. He used his knowledge of those days to forge the policy he
follows today to avoid either deflation or depression. So far it has worked
to the extent that the U.S. economy has entered neither. It’s clear
though that he needs the vigorous support of a very
focused U.S. government and the U.S. citizens to turn positive, before he can
see his policies produce a convincing recovery. He has neither!
But something fundamental has also
happened that will allow for the confiscation of gold, but not for the
purpose of a simple devaluation of the dollar and increase in the money
supply. We now live in a global world of supposedly floating exchange rates.
Exchange rates are driven by market forces to reflect their value against
other currencies. Central Bank intervention does happen on a wide front,
either directly through exchange rate management or the supply of currencies
between governments to ‘manage’ exchange rates, almost behind the
scenes. After all, it would be far too expensive an exercise to let
currencies find a free market level in the global, competitive world we now
live in. But there is a point where market forces are strong enough to defy
government wishes, through falling confidence. Such falls in confidence can
and will affect the exchange rate of a currency in the face of the best
efforts of central banks to counteract such “management” of
currencies. This is when it needs the support of its gold and foreign
exchange reserves. The argument that gold cannot be used because ot would have a deflationary impact on the monetary system, ignores the ingenuity of monetary authorities.
We feel that, contrary to nearly all the
work we have seen on gold’s role in the monetary system, a floating
gold price would have the flexibility to prevent its price from having a
deflationary impact!
The U.S.
Dollar Controls Money
The U.S. dollar is the least vulnerable
to a proper reflection of its true value in major exchange rate changes and
small nation’s currencies, the most vulnerable to them. With the
currency world having the shape of a tree, with the U.S. dollar as its trunk,
it will take far more than falling confidence in the U.S. economy to make the
dollar tumble. We’ve seen that confidence in the U.S. dollar fall
heavily over the last few years but remains as the pivot point for the world
of currencies. As the only oil currency of note (only a small part of the oil
market prices itself in other currencies) the U.S. is in a position to ensure
its use and the need for it in the global currency system.
There’s a point where this’ll
change radically. We’re seeing this change now. With Asia up and
coming, and sucking the wealth of the West into itself through direct
competition, it’s only a matter of time before the U.S. pivotal
position in the monetary system changes.
One of the first signs of this will be
China taking a significant role in the I.M.F. while the voting power of the
U.S. reduced to below the point at which it has a controlling vote.
(Currently, the U.S. has 16.8% of the votes and the I.M.F. needs an 85%
majority to pass any resolution.)
The next sign will be when China prices
its goods in the Yuan and not in the USD. Then the USD will slip back to the
role of any other leading currency, where its value reflects its Balance of
Payments.
To prevent a massive drop in the U.S.
dollar exchange rate, the U.S. economy will need to restructure, exporting
more than it imports on the trade front, while attracting foreign surpluses
through the value foreigners will get from their dollar holdings. This is far
from the case now!
|
