Myth Busters - Dividend Stocks Are Safe
In recent years, many investors have been attracted to the "safety" and "wealth-building" appeal
of dividend stocks. Therefore, it is prudent to examine history and ask:
Will my net worth take a big hit holding blue-chip dividend payers
in the next bear market?
Before we explore the facts, it is important to understand that well-intentioned
investors have a habit of repeating the same mistakes over and over again.
If we understand the propensity to make mistakes, it is more likely we can
reduce the odds of taking a hard-to-recover-from blow to our retirement nest
egg and/or estate. Is it a mistake to think of dividend stocks as safe? You
can decide after reviewing the evidence.
Dividend Investors Making A Common Mistake
Why did we have a tulip bulb mania in the 1660s, a dot-com bubble in the 1990s,
and a housing bubble in the late 2000s? The human emotions of greed and fear
have not changed the last 400 years. To refresh our memories, a quick read
of the segment below from an April 2000 BusinessWeek article
is in order:
Around 1624, the Amsterdam man who owned the only dozen specimens was
offered 3,000 guilders for one bulb. While there's no accurate way to render
that in today's greenbacks, the sum was roughly equal to the annual income
of a wealthy merchant. In recent years, as investors have intentionally
forgotten everything they learned in Investing 101 in order to load up
on unproved, unprofitable dot-com issues, tulip mania has been invoked
frequently.
Just The Facts Ma'am
Rather than pontificate about the pros and cons of holding dividend stocks,
it is best to focus on their actual performance. Our intent here is not to
criticize any article or piece of well-intentioned investment research, but
rather to educate investors about the downside risks associated with a buy-and-hold
strategy in "safe and reliable" dividend paying stocks.
The 10 Most Popular High-Yielding Dividend Stocks
Our first list of dividend payers was compiled based on the concern that a
stock market correction is overdue. The list includes Unilever (UN),
General Electric (GE), ConocoPhillips (COP), Vodafone (VOD), Johnson & Johnson
(JNJ), Sysco (SYY), Pfizer (PFE), Merck (MRK), Eli Lilly (LLY), and Glaxo SmithKline
(GSK). Corrections are followed by rallies to new highs. Therefore, a buy-and-hold
strategy can work well during a normal market correction. However, the real
test of wealth preservation comes in a bear market. The blurb below from The
Street describes the list of 10 stocks that follows:
Concerns that a stock market correction is overdue may be turning investors,
particularly those near or in retirement, into yield hounds... In addressing
that interest, ratings and research firm Morningstar, which tracks the
portfolio changes of 26 top-performing mutual funds for its "Ultimate Stock-Pickers" series,
screened its funds list. It found the most dividend-focused funds with
stocks that pay an annual yield greater than that of the S&P 500's
2% for last year...Here are the 10 most popular high-yielding dividend
stocks among Morningstar's Ultimate Stock-Pickers funds, listed in inverse
order of highest yield.
How would we have done in the last bear market with these 10 stocks using
a buy-and-hold approach? The table below shows the closing prices for each
stock at the bull market peak, October 9, 2007, and the bear market bottom,
March 9, 2009.
But, 2007-2009 Was A Rare Period, Right?
Yes and no; all bear markets are brutal and they have their own unique set
of negative fundamental factors. However, let's assume the 2007-2009 financial
crisis was a rare period or a period much different than today. If so, we would
expect "safe" dividend stocks to be holding up well since the S&P 500 peaked
on May 21, 2015. As shown in the table below, the average loss for the same
ten dividend stocks is 8.87% since the S&P 500 peaked.
A False Sense Of Security
Our next list of dividend payers comes from a July 2013 article on Yahoo
Finance:
So, what's the appeal? For one: security. A blue-chip stock gives you
equity in a large, reputable and financially sound company with a long
history. Their stocks are attractive not only because of their familiarity,
but because they tend to be less volatile and have a record of paying stable
or rising dividends (read: extra money in your pocket) for years, if not
decades...we've highlighted 10 popular, widely held stocks.
The list includes McDonald's (MCD), Coca-Cola (KO), Wal-Mart (WMT), General
Electric (GE), Procter & Gamble (PG), Microsoft (MSFT), AT&T (T), Walt
Disney (DIS), Wells Fargo (WFC), and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ). We have
to give the author some credit; she did point out that "all investing comes
with risk and blue-chip stocks can still lose significant value." The performance
of the ten stocks during the last financial crisis illustrates the real world
risks associated with any buy-and-hold investment approach.
How About A Data-Based Stock Screen?
The list below shows the performance of the "Top Rated Dividend Paying Stocks" on Dividata.com;
it includes Monmouth Real Estate (MNR), Landauer (LDR), Leggett & Platt
(LEG), Universal (UVV), Courier (CRRC), Kinder Morgan (KMP), Universal Health
(UHT), HCP (HCP), Hawaiian Electric (HE), and Mercury General (MCY).
Help You Navigate To Retirement?
The list below was referenced as a way to "navigate" to retirement; it includes
Kimberly-Clark (KMB), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), McDonald's (MCD), Chevron
(CVX), and HCP (HCP). Can you imagine if you lost 34% the year before you were
due to retire?
Good Dividend Payers To Buy On Dips
This list below is comprised of common dividend names that have been written
about in recent months as potential buy candidates for blue-chip investors.
The list includes International Business Machines (IBM), Target (TGT), Mattel
(MAT), Aflac (AFL), Aqua America (WTR), Ford (F), Bristol-Myers (BMY), Consumer
Staples ETF (XLP), Altria Group (MO), General Mills (GIS), Kimberly-Clark (KMB),
Pepsico (PEP), Clorox (CLX), Health Care ETF (XLV), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ),
Merck (MRK), Baxter International (BAX), and Owens & Minor (OMI). The average
loss during the last bear market for these stocks was over 36%.
Safe Stocks For A Market 'Storm'
The last list was published on Forbes.com with
the title "12 Safe Dividend Stocks For The Market Storm". The list includes
Reynolds America (RAI), Coca-Cola (KO), Southern Copper (SCCO), Eli Lilly (LLY),
H&R Block (HRB), Leggett & Platt (LEG), Lockheed Martin (LMT), Paychex
(PAYX), Pearson (PSO), Cinemark (CNK), STMicroelectronics (STM), and United
Parcel Service (UPS). These safe haven dividend payers lost 47% during the
last bear market.
Are Dividend Strategies Useful?
Dividend strategies can be very useful and add value for investors. The hole
in some of these dividend strategies is they focus exclusively on when to buy.
As noted on Twitter, when to buy is important, but it is less than half the
investment battle.
Adding Risk Management To The Equation
An investment game plan that does not include an exit or a risk-reduction
strategy leaves the investor open to hard-to-recover-from losses. The previous
statement applies to any dividend-based investment approach. There are 54 different
dividend stocks shown in the lists above. The table below shows the performance
of the 54 stocks between October 9, 2007 and March 9, 2009. Since the share
prices are adjusted for dividends, the figures below account for income payments,
which shows dividends will not save an investor in a bear market.
More on prices that are adjusted for dividends From Yahoo
Finance:
Adjusted Close provides the closing price for the requested day, week,
or month, adjusted for all applicable splits and dividend distributions.
Data is adjusted using appropriate split and dividend multipliers, adhering
to Center for Research in Security Prices (CRSP) standards.
Investopedia expands
on the benefit of using adjusted closing prices, as we did in this analysis:
The adjusted closing price is a useful tool when examining historical
returns because it gives analysts an accurate representation of the firm's
equity value beyond the simple market price. It accounts for all corporate
actions such as stock splits, dividends/distributions and rights offerings.
Was The Financial Crisis Unique?
No, the S&P 500 lost over 50% in both the dot-com bear market and the
financial crisis bear market. As shown in the chart below, three years of stock
market gains were wiped out in the 2000-2002 bear market.
Of the 54 stocks studied above, 53 of them were in existence during the dot-com
bust. The blue-chip heavy Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow) peaked on January
14, 2000. The Dow found a bottom on October 9, 2002. Over that period, some
dividend stocks added significant value. However, 66% of the 53 dividend paying
stocks lost money during the 2000-2002 bear market. Of those 66%, the average
loss was 13.58% (based on adjusted closing prices).
Is There Anything Investors Can Do?
While there is no magic investing bullet, there are things that investors
can do to mitigate (not eliminate) risk during a bear market. It is important
that any investment strategy have a "when to prudently buy" and a "when to
prudently sell or reduce risk" component. Risk management topics that can be
paired with any stock-based strategy have been covered numerous times in the
past, including in the articles listed below:
- Managing
Risk In A Mature Bull Market
- Scared
Of Stocks? There Are Ways To Monitor Risk
- Investors
Must Know How We Got Here And Where We Are Going
- Want
To Reduce Missteps? Become A Two-Faced Investor
- You
Need A Plan For Next Inevitable Bear Market
DRIPS Are Buy And Hold
Another often recommended way to invest in dividend stocks is via dividend
reinvestment plans or DRIPS. DRIPS have many benefits (low cost, disciplined,
consistent), but they also are a form of buy-and-hold unless paired with some
type of risk management strategy. Therefore, DRIPS are not a fool proof method
for wealth preservation during a bear market. If the returns for dividend stocks
during bear markets shown above are concerning, then DRIPS are concerning as
well.
Benefits Of Dividend And Blue Chip Investing
All stocks carry risk, including blue-chip dividend stocks. Having said that
there are numerous benefits to investing in blue-chippers, such as consistent
dividends, established brands, top-tier management, access to DRIPS, and in
some cases, substantially lower volatility relative to the broad stock market.
If we understand the pros and cons of any investment option, we are more likely
to make better risk management decisions.
