Close X Cookies are necessary for the proper functioning of 24hGold.com. By continuing your navigation on our website, you are accepting the use of cookies.
To learn more about cookies ...
EnglishFrench
Gold & Silver Prices in
In the same category

With Greece Aid Deal In Place, Can Markets Avoid Cliff?

IMG Auteur
Published : November 27th, 2012
554 words - Reading time : 1 - 2 minutes
( 0 vote, 0/5 )
Print article
  Article Comments Comment this article Rating All Articles  
0
Send
0
comment
Our Newsletter...
Category : Technical Analysis

 

 

 

 

After the close on Monday, the markets received some good news from Europe. It appears the expected deal to once again "save Greece" is in place. From the Washington Post:


Euro-zone finance ministers and the International Monetary Fund clinched agreement on a new debt target for Greece on Monday in a breakthrough toward releasing an urgently needed tranche of loans to the near-bankrupt economy, officials said.


Partly due to expectations of a deal in Greece, markets have stabilized over the past five trading sessions. As shown below, the NASDAQ held at the lower end of a weekly trend channel formed by lines A & B. Williams %R, used to monitor market momentum, has improved in a manner similar to early June.




The primary driver of the recent shift back toward risk-on was the fiscal cliff press conference held on Friday, November 16. Since then, technology stocks have led the push higher. Last week, the NASDAQ ETF (QQQ) cleared the downward sloping blue trendline on the right side of the chart below. Notice a similar break occurred near the June 2012 low in stocks. A popular momentum indicator, MACD, experienced a bullish cross last week similar to the one that occurred at the summer low (see bottom of chart).




The real test for the bulls will come when the almost inevitable "bad news" starts to surface related to difficult cliff negotiations. The tone of the Sunday talk shows hinted that the road to compromise could be difficult at best. From Reuters:


Republicans in the U.S. Congress on Monday called on President Barack Obama to detail long-term spending cuts to help solve the country's fiscal crisis, while holding firm against the income tax rate increases for the wealthy that Democrats seek.The White House has been equally firm in its position, threatening to veto any bill that does not include the tax rate increases opposed by Republicans.


Our weekly technical review of the markets shows a mixed bag. From a bullish perspective the technicals have improved noticeably. Concerns remain relative to possible "trend exhaustion" as measured by DeMark counts and long-term resistance for European stocks. This week's video contains:


  1. A risk-on vs. risk-off analysis using a weekly chart of S&P 500 longs vs. S&P 500 shorts (SPY/SH at 01:26 mark).


  1. An inflation vs. deflation analysis using a daily chart of silver relative to long-term Treasuries (SLV/TLT at 04:14).


  1. Discernible bullish progress on the daily chart of the S&P 500 Index (06:51).


  1. Possible weekly resistance for the S&P 500 (08:29).


  1. Long-term resistance for German stocks ($DAX at 09:16 mark).


  1. DeMark count and indicators for Euro Stoxx 50 (FEZ at 09:53 mark).


  1. S&P 500 daily DeMark count and indicators (11:47).


After you click play, use the button in the lower-right corner
of the video player to view in full-screen mode. Hit Esc to exit full-screen mode.






http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2lafRMm-dJg&am...player_embedded


As shown below, the broader S&P 500 Index has also seen improvement from a technical perspective.




On target="_blank" November 16 we postulated the markets were positioned for a rally attempt. Last week the rally did indeed transpire. Our approach has been to scale back into risk assets primarily via the beat-up technology sector. If the markets can continue to digest developments in Europe and Washington, D.C. in a fairly positive manner, we will continue to reduce our cash position by "buying low".



 

 

Data and Statistics for these countries : Greece | All
Gold and Silver Prices for these countries : Greece | All
<< Previous article
Rate :Average :0 (0 vote)
>> Next article
Chris Ciovacco is the Chief Investment Officer for Ciovacco Capital Management, LLC. More on the web at www.ciovaccocapital.com
WebsiteSubscribe to his services
Latest comment posted for this article
Be the first to comment
Add your comment
Top articles
Latest Comments
Marine Le Pen Soars Into Lead in...
30 Januser47791
Some of the polled people must be voting for 2 presidents: the combined votes total at least 134%.
Are You Sure You Want to Delete ...
30 Jan077885258331
are you mad if you save where the government can see it touch it feel it they will take it, either through inflation, taxes or confiscation th...
Greece's Debt: Guess Who Pays in...
28 Janbelville19071
I have read better analysis from Adrian: Greece is in an extremely strong position and the EC has to give in. If Greece leaves and defaults on its ...
Koos Jansen: India's silver expo...
26 JanDoom
Heh, the title doesn't match the subject. I would have been shocked if India was really exporting silver, much less exporting a record.
Education is Too Important Not t...
26 Jansam_site1
Right on Ron. Americans don't understand that we have been fed a distorted version of history taught in our schools. The constant attempts by cri...
Job Site of the Future: Unmanned...
26 Janrhaacke
All this fear of automation taking over jobs is completely unfounded. It will never be possible for machines to make everyone unemployed. If everyo...
Jim Rickards: Gold price manipul...
26 Janstustev1
Jim, If the intent of the manipulation is to get more gold into China and it is imperative to accomplish this forthwith then why do not the wor...
Dollar Denial Ain't Just a River
24 Janovertheedge
"It all comes back to preparing for the worst, and letting the best take care of itself. Easy to say - hard to implement. " "Therefore, we...
Most commented articlesFavoritesMore...
World PM Newsflow
ALL
GOLD
SILVER
PGM & DIAMONDS
OIL & GAS
OTHER METALS
Comments closed
Subscribe to 24hGold’s daily market briefing
  • Prices and data of precious metals in 119 currencies and world mining companies
  • Daily analysis of the economy, markets and more
  • Free, daily and indispensable
Stay informed, subscribe now !
* Your email will never be shared.