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They raised the price of my favorite ice cream.
Actually, they didn't increase the price, they reduced the container size. I can
now only get three servings for the same amount of money that used to give me
four, so I'm buying ice cream more often.
And now gasoline is going up. Food costs in general
are edging up. My kids' college expenses. Car prices, insurance premiums,
household items – a list of necessities I can't go without. Regardless
of one's income level or how tough life might get at times, one has to keep
spending money on the basics. (This includes ice cream for only some people.)
According to the government, we're supposedly in a
low-inflation environment. What happens if price inflation really takes off,
reaching high levels – or worse, spirals out of control?
That's not a rhetorical question. Have you
considered how you'll deal with rising costs? Are you sure your future income
will even keep up with rising inflation? Be honest: will you have enough
savings to rely on? What's your plan?
If price inflation someday takes off – an
outcome we see no way around – no one's current standard of living can
be maintained without an extremely effective plan for keeping up with
inflation. It's not that people won't get raises or cost of living
adjustments at work, nor that they will all neglect
to accumulate savings. It's that the value of the dollars those things are in
will be losing purchasing power at increasingly rapid rates. It will take
more and more currency units to buy the same amount of gas and groceries and
tuition. And ice cream.
I'm not talking science fiction here. When the
consequences of runaway debt, out-of-control deficit spending, and
money-printing schemes come home to roost, it's not exactly a stretch to
believe that high inflation will result. We need a way to diffuse the impact
this will have on our purchasing power. We need a strategy to protect our
standard of living.
How will we accomplish this?
I suspect you know my answer, but here's a good
example. You've undoubtedly heard about the drought in the Midwest and how
it's impacted the corn crop. The price of corn has surged 50% in the past two
months alone. Commodity analysts say the price could rise another 20% or more
as the drought continues. Every corn-based product on the grocery shelf will
soon take a lot more dimes and dollars to buy. But wait – what if I
used gold to buy corn?
 
(Click on
image to enlarge)
While the price of gold constantly fluctuates, you
would have experienced, on average, no inflation over the last 30 years if
you'd used gold to purchase corn. Actually, right now, it'd be on the cheap
side.
When you extrapolate this to other food items
– and virtually everything else you buy – it's very liberating.
Think about it: gold continues its safe-haven role as a reliable hedge
against rising inflation. I believe that those who save in gold will
experience, on average, no cost increases in the things they buy and the
services they use. Their standard of living would not be impacted. I think
this kind of thinking is especially critical to adopt when you consider that
supply and demand trends for gas and food dictate that prices will likely
rise for a long time, and perhaps dramatically.
So how much will you need to make it through the
upcoming inflation storm and come out unscathed?
Like all projections, assumptions abound. Here are
mine for the following table. I'm
assuming that:
- The price of gold, on average and at a minimum,
tracks the loss in purchasing power of whatever currency you use, and
that it does so from current prices. Given gold's history, this is an
easy assumption to make.
-
- Gold sales, over time, capture the gain in gold
and silver so that your purchasing power is preserved. (This doesn't
mean I expect to sell at the top of the market; I expect we'll be
selling gold as needed – if gold has not itself become a widely accepted
currency again.)
-
- We pay taxes on the gain. This will decrease
our net gain, but there should still be gains. In the famous Weimar
Germany hyperinflation, gold rose faster than the rate of hyperinflation.
-
To calculate how much we'll need, I looked at two
components, the first being average monthly expenses. What would we use our
gold and silver for? From corn to a house payment, it could be used for any
good or service. After all, virtually nothing will escape rising inflation.
Here are some of my items: groceries, gas, oil changes and other car
maintenance, household items, eating out, pool service, pest service,
groceries and gas again, eating out again, vitamins, movie tickets, doctor
appointments, haircuts, pet grooming, kids who need some cash, gifts, and
groceries and gas yet again. Groceries include ice cream, in my case. How
many ounces of gold would cover these monthly expenses today?
And don't forget the big expenses – broken air
conditioner, new vehicle, vacation… and I really don't think my
daughter will want to get married at the county rec hall. How many ounces of
gold would I need to cover such likely events in the future?
The point here is that you're probably going to need
more ounces than you think. Look at your bank statement and assess how much
you spend each month – and do it honestly.
The other part of the equation is how long we'll
need to use gold and silver to cover those expenses. The potential duration
of high inflation will dictate how much physical bullion we need stashed
away. This is also probably longer than you think; in Weimar Germany, high
inflation lasted two years – and then hyperinflation hit and lasted
another two. Four years of high inflation. That's not kindling – that's
a wildfire roaring through your back yard.
So here's how much gold you'll need, depending on
your monthly expenses and how long high inflation lasts.
|
Ounces
of Gold Needed to Meet Expenses During High Inflation
|
|
Monthly
expenses in US dollars
|
Monthly
expenses in gold, oz*
|
Inflation
Duration
|
|
6 months
|
1 year
|
18
months
|
2 years
|
3 years
|
4 years
|
5 years
|
|
$500
|
0.31
|
1.9
|
3.7
|
5.6
|
7.5
|
11.2
|
15.0
|
18.7
|
|
$1,000
|
0.63
|
3.8
|
7.5
|
11.3
|
15.0
|
22.5
|
30.0
|
37.5
|
|
$2,000
|
1.25
|
7.5
|
15.0
|
22.5
|
30.0
|
45.0
|
60.0
|
75.0
|
|
$3,000
|
1.88
|
11.3
|
22.5
|
33.8
|
45.0
|
67.5
|
90.0
|
112.5
|
|
$4,000
|
2.50
|
15.0
|
30.0
|
45.0
|
60.0
|
90.0
|
120.0
|
150.0
|
|
$5,000
|
3.13
|
18.8
|
37.5
|
56.3
|
75.0
|
112.5
|
150.0
|
187.5
|
|
$10,000
|
6.25
|
37.5
|
75.0
|
112.5
|
150.0
|
225.0
|
300.0
|
375.0
|
|
$20,000
|
12.50
|
75.0
|
150.0
|
225.0
|
300.0
|
450.0
|
600.0
|
750.0
|
|
*Based
on $1,600 gold price
|
If my monthly expenses are about $3,000/month, I
need 45 ounces to cover two years of high inflation, and 90 if it lasts four
years. Those already well off or who want to live like Doug Casey should use
the bottom rows of the table. How much will you need?
Of course many of us own silver, too. Here's how
many ounces we'd need, if we saved in silver.
|
Ounces
of Silver Needed to Meet Expenses During High Inflation
|
|
Monthly
expenses in US dollars
|
Monthly
expenses in silver, oz*
|
Inflation Duration
|
|
6 months
|
1 year
|
18 months
|
2 years
|
3 years
|
4 years
|
5 years
|
|
$500
|
17.9
|
107.1
|
214.2
|
321.3
|
428.4
|
642.6
|
856.8
|
1,071.0
|
|
$1,000
|
35.7
|
214.3
|
428.5
|
642.8
|
857.0
|
1,285.6
|
1,714.1
|
2,142.6
|
|
$2,000
|
71.4
|
428.5
|
857.0
|
1,285.6
|
1,714.1
|
2,571.1
|
3,428.2
|
4,285.2
|
|
$3,000
|
107.1
|
642.8
|
1,285.7
|
1,928.5
|
2,571.4
|
3,857.0
|
5,142.7
|
6,428.4
|
|
$4,000
|
142.9
|
857.1
|
1,714.2
|
2,571.3
|
3,428.4
|
5,142.6
|
6,856.8
|
8,571.0
|
|
$5,000
|
178.6
|
1,071.4
|
2,142.8
|
3,214.3
|
4,285.7
|
6,428.5
|
8,571.4
|
10,714.2
|
|
$10,000
|
35.7
|
214.3
|
428.5
|
642.8
|
857.0
|
1,285.6
|
1,714.1
|
2,142.6
|
|
$20,000
|
714.3
|
4,285.7
|
8,571.4
|
12,857.0
|
17,142.7
|
25,714.1
|
34,285.4
|
42,856.8
|
|
*Based on $28 silver price
|
A $3,000 monthly budget needs 1,285 ounces to get
through one year, or 3,857 ounces for three years.
I know these amounts probably sound like a lot. But
here's the thing: if you don't save now in gold and silver, you're going
to spend a whole lot more later. What I've
outlined here is exactly what gold and silver are for: to protect your
purchasing power, your standard of living. It's like having your own personal
financial bomb shelter; the dollar will be blowing up all around you, but
your finances are protected.
And the truth is, the
amounts in the table are probably not enough. Unexpected expenses always come
up. Or you may want a higher standard of living. And do you hope to leave
some bullion to your heirs?
It's sobering to realize, but it deserves emphasis:
if we're right about high inflation someday hitting our economy…
Most people don't own enough gold and silver.
If you think the amount of precious metals you've
accumulated might be lacking, I strongly encourage you to put a plan in
motion to save enough to meet your family's needs. We have top recommended
dealers in BIG GOLD, ones we've vetted that are trustworthy and have
highly competitive prices. We also recommend a service that will deduct
whatever amount you chose from your bank account and buy bullion for you
automatically. And now, given how concerned we've been about the inflation
that's coming, we've actually started our own service. You can check it all out
in the current issue of BIG GOLD, risk-free. I can tell you that purchase premiums
are incredibly low, due to a proprietary system that bids your order out to a
network of dealers that compete for your business. We're already using it,
and the response from other investors has been tremendous.
Whatever plan you adopt, my advice is to make sure
you have a meaningful amount of bullion to withstand the firestorm that's
almost mathematically certain to occur at this point. And now you know
exactly how much gold you're going to need.
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