Gregory Bergman
Editor-in-chief, CapitalWatch
"It is what it is."
This is what President Trump had to say about the pandemic sweeping the nation and crippling the economy.
The interview last weekend with Axios during which Trump offered this
pearl of wisdom might become the definitive interview of the president
during his term. Trump is at the height of his "powers" in this
"discussion," uniquely blending extreme candor and utter falsehoods as
no other human being can. Never has his brand of authentic
inauthenticity been so gloriously and grimly displayed.
Little known historical fact: President Franklin Roosevelt's famous
quote from his iconic speech after the attack on Pearl Harbor was
changed to "A day that will live in infamy" from "It is what it is."
So granted, "It is what it is" isn't exactly as inspiring as, "All we have to fear is fear itself."
But perhaps there is a grain of wisdom here that, if nothing else,
somberly reflects the collective American surrender on a wide range of
social, economic, and foreign policy challenges.
To be clear: For Trump, "It is what it is" expresses callousness but
not surrender. Trump, while he loathes actual work, does not lazily
throw in the towel, a fact which will be abundantly clear should he lose
the election.
Trump believes in the power of positive thinking, which may help him
come out ahead in a brutal real estate negotiation but proved
insufficient in convincing a brutal dictator to denuclearize a
peninsula--or spotting a virus from acting like, you know, a virus.
So, which of the problems our country faces should we just
shruggingly accept because "It is what it is," and which should we
insist, not through the power of positive thinking but through the power
of policy change and cultural renovation, can and should be changed?
How about systemic racism as it affects policing, should we just shrug and say, "It is what it is"?
Well, tens of thousands of Americans have refused to surrender; they
have refused to throw up their hands and say, "It is what it is."
Instead, they throw up their hands and say, "Don't shoot!" The result
has made real reforms to policing possible to a degree heretofore
thought unthinkable.
But what about the police? Do they need to be on board for any lasting change?
Yes, it is what it is.
After all, we need them to sign up for a dangerous job, and cops are
quitting around the nation left and right. So no more attempting to burn
them alive with a Molotov Cocktail as it may not help anything.
But selling the tanks and using the money to raise both police wages
and performance expectations? And by raising performance expectations, I
mean not killing unarmed citizens unnecessarily? That seems like a good
starting place to reach a compromise on police defunding and
restructuring.
Compromise: A bad word in this country.
It is what it is.
And what of other issues like the military budget, tax policy, education, and the environment? Health care?
Should the Democrats vote for a Biden proposal to expand Obamacare
including the addition of a public option? Yes. Sorry, Bernie bros. It
is what it is. We cannot blow this opportunity in some intra-party
purity test.
And global warming?
Should we just say that China and India will never stop polluting so we should not fight climate change ourselves?
Hey, the world will be destroyed but "It is what it is"?
What about an eventual war with North Korea? It is what it is? Why
not strike a deal with China and let them keep TikTok and in return they
can get serious with Pyongyang and tell them the clock is ticking?
After all, China's rise is inevitable, and we must pick and choose our
battles. Right?
Yes, it is what it is.
And the market? Will the mania we continued to see this week keep going?
Yes, it is what it is.
You see, there is one fundamental unreality to the markets. If
everyone on Robinhood.com just keeps buying a stock, the stock will just
keep going up (I traded options of SPDR Gold Trust, iShares Silver
Trust, and UPS this week for a 700% return albeit a monetarily minuscule
gain).
Even Jim Cramer, after railing against the idiocy of the rally,
finally seemed to make peace with the fact that the market is indeed
mad.
"We're not winning the war against the pandemic, and when we're
losing, we buy the Cramer Covid-19 Index," Cramer said. "I wish there
were more to it than that, but when the virus seems unstoppable, you go
back to the well and buy, regardless of valuation."
Regardless of valuation? Yes.
It is what it is.
Just buy big tech companies so big their stock's ascension singlehandedly drags the broader index along with them.
Forget valuations? Sure, why not--just so long as everyone else does.
It is what it is.
But not only is the market mad; it is dumb. It is not a bull market or a bear market, it is a dumb market.
As Cramer pointed out on CNBC's "Mad Money," days will go by before a
news announcement which used to move a stock instantly takes effect.
This is what happens when a ceaseless cascade of news is consumed by a
ceaseless stream of new "traders" whose stimulus checks have been
converted to Bitcoin.
And what about Bitcoin?
Bitcoin, immaterial as it is, will produce tangible results for those
who buy in now or hold as investors look to the electronic nonsensical
non-currency as they do to gold on a weakening dollar. Buy it. I bought
at $11,000 thinking I was late to the party and it is now $11,500 or so
after it went up to $11,864 and is probably now up or down 100 or 200 by
the time I punctuate this sentence. Bot long term, this stupid thing
will likely double in the next few years. This time I am not going to
miss the ride, however moronic and risky it might be.
Or you could invest solely in my new Four B's Index: Bullion,
Bitcoin, Bezos, and Buffet (but just his massive Apple play). On second
thought, make it Five B's and play the Bergman Buy Index as well (Index
results posted bi-weekly).
Could you just really invest in this "index" rather unthoughtfully
devised and come out a winner? Yes, you could. Or you could buy the Dow.
Yes, remember the Dow? A bullish "golden cross" pattern has arisen, say
some chart savvy analysts. Great. Just so long as everyone on
Robinhood.com reads the same MarketWatch article, I'm all in.
Make no mistake, this market is bananas. Just like this economy is bananas. Just like this whole damned year is bananas.
Hey, "It is what it is."
Gregory Bergman
Editor-in-chief, CapitalWatch
(The opinions expressed in this article do not reflect the position
of CapitalWatch or its journalists. The analyst has no business
relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Information provided is for educational purposes only and does not
constitute financial, legal, or investment advice)
