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"China Urbanization Growth Fallacy"; Trouble with Ponzi Schemes; Stopped Clock Syndrome; Wrong vs. E - Mish - Global Economic Analysis

All but this one sentence from your comment would i readily agree with; "So time-dependent predictions are pretty worthless." While they may be pretty worthless, a prediction without a time component attached to it is entirely without value. Without it there is no conceivable way to determine its veracity, or lack thereof, until and unless it comes to pass. But until that moment, should it ever come, it can always be claimed that insufficient time had elapsed for the prediction to come true. Minus the time component, of necessity, faith replaces reason if belief in the accuracy of the prediction is to be maintained.

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Beginning of the headline :China bulls point to China's plans to move millions from farms to cities as some sort of guarantee that that China's growth will continue. What If? What if such analysis is ass backwards? What if urbanization is the result, not the cause of growth? What if pressures to maintain the symbolism of growth (as opposed to actual growth) do far more harm than good. Michael Pettis at China Financial Markets tackles the above questions via email on "The Urbanization Fallacy". What follows is a sy... Read More

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