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user4779
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Chinese gold demand and SGE withdrawals: the role of leasing and inventory changes - Bron Suchecki - Perth Mint

Yes, but your argument works both ways. Suppose that retail demand slackens, and the jeweller decides to let inventory run down. He doesn't buy his 100 oz for a month or so. Then wholesale demand underestimates retail demand (which is still continuing, albeit at a somewhat slower rate). In the long run, the error averages to zero. The only way to get a really accurate measure of retail demand is to measure it directly, which may be difficult. Anyway, wholesale demand isn't a bad proxy for retail demand. The former has a predictive element, which tends to smooth it. Retailers' predictions will sometimes be wrong, but they are more likely to be right than those by analysts who do not meet the end buyers.

Commented 3393 days ago

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Beginning of the headline :Following on from my and Koos posts on leasing (here and here), Koos and I have been discussing leasing and SGE withdrawals. Koos says that when the gold is leased it’s transferred from the lessor’s SGE bullion account to the lessee’s SGE bullion account. It can then be: sold spot on the SGE by the lessee (ie miner, or speculator). withdrawn from the vaults. In this case it’s very likely the gold is leased by a jeweler for production - why else get your hands on the physical? In this post I'm in... Read More

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