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user4779
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Gold Seasonals Bottoming - Adam Hamilton - Zealllc

Thank you, Adam, for another interesting and informative article. The pattern of price movements would show up best if the data were detrended (by the annual rate of ca. 12%) and the year started in late February (about the average start of the Chinese new year). That would show a year of two halves: A drop of about 10% from late February to late July, and a balancing rise from late July to late February. It would be nice to do the statistics also for the 43-year period from 1972 to 2015. The Chinese influence would be diluted, but the seasonal pattern of other countries should show up the same. (Prior to 1972, the gold-to-dollar ratio was fixed, somewhat erratically, albeit being maintained after 1945 only by selling off an average of about 500 tonnes of the US gold reserve each year.)

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Beginning of the headline :Gold remains deeply out of favor, languishing near major lows. Traders are still convinced gold is going nowhere, and want nothing to do with it. But provocatively that?s par for the course in early June, when gold slumps to its most-important seasonal low. Gold?s seasonals are now bottoming, just ahead of the usual major surges in global gold demand coming in late summer and autumn. This is a fantastic time to buy. Seasonality describes the strong ... Read More

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