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overtheedge
Member since May 2012
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Discovery

- James Howard Kunstler -

I gave you 5 even though you understated the major weakness in the system: transportation.
Though fuel is currently at a multi-year low, it is just one portion of the over-all cost structure of transportation.

Now as JHK has pointed out, almost every item consumed is transported from far away.
The cities have a problem of no primary production and limited secondary (value-added) manufacturing.
We can thank the unions and local government's addiction to property taxation.
The suburbs have no production beyond a few scattered postage stamp gardens and no secondary production.
Both the urban and suburban environments are completely dependent upon the transportation sector and the JIT pseudo-warehousing scheme.

So this leaves only rural America to fill the demand.
Not happening and not gonna happen at a level high enough to feed the wants and needs of the breeders.
Besides, rural Americans rarely produce enough food to feed themselves for more than a couple months with most producing nothing.
Agribusiness is completely dependent upon transportation, easy and cheap financing for secondary manufacturing, a consumer base with credit cards and a stable operating environment.

We forget that most primary production left America decades ago.
Anyone looked at the Baltic Dry Index lately?
Few basic commodities being shipped means even fewer produced goods to be shipped.

JHK makes another assumption that is premature.
Local production will be a long time coming and for most areas the truth is not in anyone's lifetime.
What would be the basis for such a revelation on my part?
The skill sets are gone from our collective knowledge base.
The tools no longer exist nor the means to produce those tools.
Imagine something as simple as making a pair of work boots.

For a time, we will witness a scavenger economy.
Competition will be fierce and violent.
That competition will move out of the cities, but be limited in its migration due to limited transportation and available food for foraging.
Foraging includes theft by violence.
Remember the scavengers lack the knowledge to grow anything so we will see "killing the golden goose" on a vast scale.

Keep in mind that this will be on a global scale.
I contend that most of the developing world is incapable of feeding itself.
Look at the CIA Factbook on foreign countries and see what their primary exports are.
Those exports will limit the ability to be self-supporting on food production for large populations that predominantly doesn't grow its own food
We hear or famines regularly. Why? Most of the actual growers are subsistence level. Ergo, no surplus to sell.

In the USA, we have large scale agricultural production that is hopelessly dependent on a vast manufacturing and transportation system.
No fuel delivery, the tractors remain motionless.
Imagine the typical agri-businessman trying to repair a fouled injector on his tractor.
Do you really believe said operator will have abundant access to clean diesel? And what about the fuel pump?
Anyone, any idea how many acres you can farm without a tractor?

Jim C.
I contend that you are too close to the Prince Valium community.
No production equals no commerce.
Perhaps you have enough wealth accumulated to hire mercenaries to guard you.
With enough wealth you can buy whatever commodities you may want or need.
Or just accumulate enough mood-altering drugs while the market-place remains open.
And I don't recall JHK extolling the virtues of bugging out with no place to go.

The only difference this time will be one of scale.
Yah, this is gonna work out well.

And Jim, peak oil is just a small corner of the nouveau reality we are already starting to experience.

Cue up "Over my head" by The Fray

I never knew
I never knew that everything was falling through
That everyone I knew was waiting on a cue
To turn and run when all I needed was the truth
But that's how it's got to be
It's coming down to nothing more than apathy
I'd rather run the other way than stay and see
The smoke and who's still standing when it clears
...

Commented 3017 days ago

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Beginning of the headline :I t looks like 2016 will be the year that humanfolk learn that the stuff they value was not worth as much as they thought it was. It will be a harrowing process because a great many humans are abandoning ownership of things that are rapidly losing value — e.g. stocks on the Shanghai exchange — and stuffing whatever “money” they can recover into the US dollar, the assets and usufructs of which are also going through a very painful reality value adjustment. Of course this calls into question forem... Read More

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