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Seeing Stars

- James Howard Kunstler -

I appreciate your optimism, but I must respectfully disagree. Shale oil and shale gas are not really panning out. (I worked in the natural gas industry on a drilling rig, btw). Shale oil has an eroi of just over 1, at best. It uses water supplies at a terrifying rate, and the ramp-up will take decades, if not longer. Some of the heavy oils in the Canadian tar sands are extractable with a slightly better eroi, but not much. And the enviro-destruction there is off the charts - enormous lakes of sludge. Horizontal drilling doesn't extract more of what's there, it just makes it easier to get to. Fracking of shale gas doesn't work that well. Sure you get a very high producing well, but it dies in a about a year. A traditional well (in the sand/silica beds) will produce for 15 or so years.

These technologies are short term, profit points - they bring in money from poorly informed investors. Propaganda about hundreds of years supply is just that. And they probably thought they would work, but they just aren't panning out. I haven't studied deep-water extraction enough to comment on it, but it's clear that they aren't finding any super-giant fields. The fields are less than 1/100th the size of Gawar or Cantrell, both of which are in serious decline.

The wild-card in this LENR technology. see http://www.cleantechblog.com/2011/08/the-new-breed-of-energy-catalyzers-ready-for-commercialization.html

cheers.

Commented 4605 days ago

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