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Gold market report: the start of an epic short-squeeze?

- Alasdair Macleod - Finance and Eco.

An interesting technical indicator is the Bloomberg Commodity Sentiment Gold Bullish index. Since the inception of the survey (April 2004) readings below 30% have marked bearish extremes and contrarian buy signals. Whenever it has moved below 30, gold has historically posted an average return of 21% on a 12-month horizon, with a 100% hit rate. It has also been positive on a 1 wk, 1m, 3m and 6m basis. Today we are at the lowest level in the indicator since Dec 2011, and it is screaming "Buy".

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Beginning of the headline :This week considerable instability developed in currency markets. The yield on US Treasuries has been rising, signalling that they may have bottomed out. And when it emerged from the FOMC minutes that some members are worrying about the commitment to buy Treasuries and mortgage securities while the British MPC were thinking of renewed QE, sterling had its biggest one-day fall for months. Why does this matter for precious metals? It matters simply because there are some extreme positions in Come... Read More

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