Unless something dramatically changes in the next 12 days, there will be another 25 basis point cut on September 18.
CME Fedwatch shows a 95.8% chance of a quarter-point rate cut on September 8.
Thanks to a trade talk announcement with China, the ADP payroll expectation of 195,000 jobs for Friday's jobs report, some other economic firming, or simply nothing at all, there was a small shift in the odds away from two cuts to no cuts at all.
Yesterday there was a 3.8% chance of two cuts. Today that vanished, replaced by a 4.2% chance of no cut.
Unless the odds shift another 30 percentage points or so, there is little chance the Fed does anything but take out more "insurance".
The notion of recession "insurance" is silly, but that is the word Fed officials will be yapping about for the next week.
