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The Long Term Bull Market E Wave Count

IMG Auteur
Publié le 31 janvier 2012
493 mots - Temps de lecture : 1 - 1 minutes
( 1 vote, 3/5 ) , 2 commentaires
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Rubrique : Marchés





I have to be honest that I am grappling with a few possible counts since the March 2009 Bull market commenced in terms of the big picture.

With Elliott Wave Analysis, you have to anticipate, monitor, and then adjust.  Most of the time I go with my instinct and then only adjust if it looks like I was way off the tracks.  The only time I tend to get way off the tracks is when I read too many opinions, so I’ve shut myself off from reading other’s opinions and below is my gut  right now:

I know I have labeled one option as the 1074 lows being primary wave 2, with primary wave 3 underway since (1074 to current).  However, I have to admit my instincts still tell me that the 1074 lows may have been primary wave 4, and we are in primary wave 5 up now.

Whether it was 2 or 4 is not super important short term because we would either be in a Primary 3 up or Primary 5 up now which is bullish either way.  However… if it’s a primary 5 up, then it changes the longer term pictures and also 5th waves can be difficult to assess.

There is another rule that says wave 3 can’t be the shortest of waves 1, 3 and 5 (All up waves).  Therefore, if we are in primary 5 up now from the 1074 lows then we can’t rally more than 360 points from the 1074 lows (Wave 3 was 360 points).

So here is the possible count if this is Primary 5 from the March 2009 lows with normal fibonacci relationships:

666 to 1221-  1

1221-1010- 2 (38% of 1)

1010-1370- 3 (61.8% of 1)

1370-1074- 4 (38% of 1-3)

1074-??? – 5 (Normally 50-61% of 1-3)

So if wave 5 cant  be longer than wave 3, and let’s say wave 5 is 50% of waves 1-3… that would put a top target at about 1426 on the

SP 500 index.  That would make wave 5 just shorter than wave 3 following the rules and would complete 5 full waves.

So that is what I’m grappling with because if this is a primary wave 5 up from the Oct 2011 lows of Primary 4… then we would need to be on our toes for a bull market pivot top.  If its primary wave 3 up , then we have much further to stretch.

Right now, the evidence is leaning to this being primary 5 up… below is my chart and I will keep you updated.  The volume, MACD, and other indicators will help point the way.

Note how the volume has been declining on every primary wave rally 1, 3, and 5 so far.  Note how the MACD line uptrends on each primary wave rally as it is now…

Stay tuned

David Banister

The Market Trend Forecast

If you’d like to receive free weekly reports, please check at www.markettrendforecast.com 



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Duuh, my 3rd and concluding brainwave, below, farily closely matched the ratio of second and third brainwave volleys, re Total Bewliderment / Vague Comprehension, (tb/vc) statistically suggestive of a decline in my ablility to follow WHAT in HECK you're talking about, Dave !

Rise per period ? And likelihood of using that to predict the exact safe peak time to get out in the next rise ? Like about 40% of the change from peak to valley of last cycle one can safely assume before another turn around is likely?

We do similarly in audiology, measuring auditory-nerve potentials, or "brainwave" speeds, and inter-peak and peak/valley ratios 1-3, 1-5 and 3-5 and also right versus left ear, compared to norms for age etc., to determine "within normal limits" or not. If the ratios are out, it suggests concerns. We can even specify location of the lesion with a fair degree of certainty.

Can you not send a measured controlled stimulus down the monetary pipeline system, as it were, then read the output and compare ratios, gleaned from many samples over time? I guess thats what you're talking about here? Only you have no control of the stimulii, so you just extrapolate based upon the hard data, the rate of changes in the numbers?

In this case, my tb / vc scores suggest a high risk environment, tempering the optimistic numerical scrying. When uncertain, sit and drink tea and watch the fascinating curvy red lines on the gold board go up and down, up and down; fortunately, usually predominantly upp-ish.

So, you're saying we should expect gold to go uppish to about 1735 /z $US, then downerino back for a bit ?

For me this is not so much news ? Call me in 2013. I like the show, though. All the pretty numbers ... I therefore give this Calculus-ian article a generous .625 or a iFibronasty 3 /5.
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I quite agree Tamohara its all pointless guesswork anyway when the paper market is obviously totally controlled by TPTB with their high freq trading platforms. No one is selling their physical and the asians have backed up a fleet of trucks to buy as much as possible so any drop in price in my opinion is completely ficticious.
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I quite agree Tamohara its all pointless guesswork anyway when the paper market is obviously totally controlled by TPTB with their high freq trading platforms. No one is selling their physical and the asians have backed up a fleet of trucks to buy as mu  Lire la suite
phil A. - 31/01/2012 à 18:54 GMT
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