| Chinese Copper Demand Estimates Slashed amid Continued Slowdown | |
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Why Is Copper Falling to New 2015 Lows? (Continued from Prior Part) Chinese copper demand
Chinese copper demand has been the key driver of copper prices for more than a decade now. China’s slowdown has been the major factor driving copper prices to levels unseen since the global financial crisis of 2008–2009. Several analysts were expecting a recovery in Chinese (MCHI) copper demand in 2H15. But forget about a recovery. Chinese copper demand seems to be getting worse.
Chinese copper demand estimates
Goldman Sachs, which holds a bearish view on copper prices, estimates that Chinese copper demand will be flat this year compared to last year. However, according to China’s state-backed research agency-Antaike, Chinese copper consumption is expected to rise 5.7% year-over-year in 2015. Earlier this year, Antaike expected Chinese copper demand to rise 6.3% this year. According to Reuters, citing He Xiaohui, senior analyst at Antaike, “2015 forecast could be cut further to below 5 percent in December if appetite for the metal did not show signs of improving.”
ICSG estimates
On the other hand, according to the ICSG (International Copper Study Group), China’s apparent copper demand is expected to be flat this year. In its report, the ICSG says that other agencies expect “real” Chinese copper demand to rise 3%-4% this year. The ICSG also adds these demand forecasts have been revised downwards from April when real Chinese copper demand was expected to rise 4.5%–5% in 2015. Please note that apparent demand is real demand plus any change in inventories. Real demand tends to be higher than apparent demand when there’s inventory destocking.
Southern Copper (SCCO) expects Chinese copper demand to rise 3% this year. Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) said during its 3Q15 earnings call that “consumption in China continues to increase, admittedly at a much lower rate.” Together, Freeport-McMoRan and Teck Resources (TCK) form ~0.75% of the iShares North American Natural Resources ETF (IGE).
In the next part of this series, we’ll look at some of the recent indicators for Chinese copper demand.
Continue to Next Part Browse this series on Market Realist:
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Freeport McMoRan Copper and Gold Inc.
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PRODUCTEUR |
CODE : FCX |
ISIN : US35671D8570 |
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ProfilIndicateurs de MarchéVALEUR : Projets & res.Communiqués de PresseRapport annuelRISQUE : Profile actifsContactez la cie |
Freeport McMoran est une société de production minière d'or et de cuivre basée aux Etats-Unis D'Amerique. Freeport McMoran est productrice d'or, de cuivre, d'argent, de cobalt et de molybdène au Chili, au Perou, en Indonesie et en Republique Democratique Du Congo, en développement de projets de cuivre au Perou, et détient divers projets d'exploration au Chili. Ses principaux projets en production sont CANDELARIA, EL ABRA, CHINO - MILL, HENDERSON, MIAMI - ROM LEACH, MORENCI - MILL, OJOS DEL SALADO, MORENCI et MORENCI - ROM LEACH au Chili, GRASBERG, SIERRITA et BAGDAD en Indonesie, TENKE FUNGURUME et TYRONE en Republique Democratique Du Congo et CERRO VERDE au Perou, son principal projet en développement est SAFFORD au Perou et ses principaux projets en exploration sont BAGDAD - ROM LEACH et CHINO - ROM LEACH au Perou et CERRO VERDE - MILL, CERRO VERDE - CRUSHED LEACH, CERRO VERDE - ROM LEACH, EL ABRA - ROM LEACH et CLIMAX au Chili. Freeport McMoran est cotée aux Etats-Unis D'Amerique et en Allemagne. Sa capitalisation boursière aujourd'hui est 71,8 milliards US$ (67,5 milliards €). La valeur de son action a atteint son plus bas niveau récent le 06 mars 2020 à 10,00 US$, et son plus haut niveau récent le 19 avril 2024 à 49,61 US$. Freeport McMoran possède 1 448 000 000 actions en circulation. |